1. Arkeometri A.B.D. Semineri, F.B.E., ODTÜ 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU 1, Yurdanur Tulunay Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi Havacılık ve Uzay Mühendisliği, 06531 Ankara (e-mail: ytulunay@ae.metu.edu.tr) ESS 501 Introduction to Near Earth Space

2. Arkeometri A.B.D. Semineri, F.B.E., ODTÜ 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METUAnkara 2 Earth System Science Space Weather and Technology Yurdanur Tulunay Middle East Technical University, Department of Aerospace Engineering, 06531 Ankara (e-mail: ytulunay@metu.edu.tr)

3. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 3 Content Introduction What is ESS What is Space Weather L. Lanzerrotti’s Presentation Examples What do we do Results conclusion

4. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 4 Introduction Since 1980 a paradigm emerged in geosciences, analogous to plate tectonics revolution of 1950s and 1960s.

5. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 5 (Paradigm : It typically defines what a given individual is willing to accept of her or his field, or how they perform their own work within it, Oxford Dictionary )

6. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 6 This paradigm called "Earth System Science" (ESS) or "Earth System" http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

7. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 7 EARTH only planet we know of that sustains LIFE http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

8. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 8 Acknowledges changes in the solid earth changes result from interactions among NES,Atmosphere, Hydrosphere, Biosphere and Lithosphere http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

9. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 9 Changes in the solid E+ result from interactions among the atmosphere - hydrosphere - biosphere and the lithosphere http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

10. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 10 Increasing awareness of the role of microbes in generating ore deposits. http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html Example

11. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 11 The way tectonics influences weathering rates, which in turn affect global climate. Example http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

12. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 12 ESS systematically introduces concepts and resources centered on space – air – water – land – life and human dimensions. http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

13. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 13 In the following slide the concept of a pyramidal structure illustrates the relation of the ESS and global change education in the larger interest of society. At the lower level of the pyramid information and knowledge from the basic sciences, disciplines are important.

14. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 14 The next level is information and knowledge show how to integrate the discipline of interest with the other relevant disciplines. Within the pyramidal structure one can find out who will advise, manage, direct and lead humankind activities.

15. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 15 Within the pyramidal structure one can find out who will advise, manage, direct and lead humankind activities D. Johnson. M. Ruzek, M. Kalb, Computer and Geosciences, vol.26, pp.660-676, 2000)

16. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 16 forms the scientific integrating basis for any discussion of the system as a whole. Future of our planet and destiny of humankind are dependent upon this interdisciplinary pyramid of ES http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

17. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 17 There is no process or phenomenon within the ES which occurs in complete isolation from the other elements of the system from the other elements of the system, in particular the Sun, therefore, the Near Earth Space (NES)

18. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 18 forms the scientific integrating basis for any discussion of the system as a whole. Future of our planet and destiny of humankind are dependent upon this interdisciplinary pyramid of ES http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

19. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 19 In the mid-1980’s NASA began a systems approach to cataloging the elements of the Earth System, their linkages, dependences and fluxes. This simplified version focuses on the physical elements of the system, but relegates human processes to a simple box. i.e. Physical Elements of the system and human processes forming a simple box. http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthssystem/index.html

20. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 20 CHALLENGE is : How to quantify various elements, states, and processes within the system ? As an illustration, next slide shows the relevant interactions of physical and dynamical properties. The scales involved vary (i) in spatial scales: from mm to the circumference of the Earth (ii) in temporal scales: from seconds to billion of years

21. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 21 Physical Elements of the system and human processes forming a simple box System approach: Elements of the E+ system, their linkages, dependencies and fluxes http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

22. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 22 From space can view the Earth as a whole system, observe the net results of complex interactions, http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

23. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 23 begin to understand how the planet is changing in response to natural and human influences http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

24. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 24 ESS has begun to understand and quantify the effects of “forcings” on the climate system http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

25. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 25 The next slide estimates of the globally and annually averaged radiative forcings (in watt/sq.m) due to a number of anthropogenic and natural factors from pre-industrial times (1750) to 2000. The height of the rectangular bars indicates mid- range estimates of the FORCINGS:

26. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 26 (Houghton, J., 2002)

27. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 27 The error bars show estimates of the uncertainty ranges. Note that only the range of values, not a central estimate, is shown for the indirect aeorosol forcing, because of its large uncertainty. The contribution of individiual gases to the direct greenhouse forcing are indicated in the first bar; the forcings associated with changes in Ozone are shown in the second and third bars.

28. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 28 Estimates of the forcings (globally averaged values) due to changes in aerosols are shown in the following bars. The last two bars are estimates of the forcings associated with changes in land use because of the changes in albedo and with possible variations in the input of solar radiation. Also included is an index of scientific understanding for each forcing representing a subjective judgement about the degree of knowledge and understanding regarding the mechanisms involved. (“Summary of Policymakers”, IPCC,2001 )

29. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 29 In the ESS, the various processes act in concert to define both a backgound state (CLIMATOLOGY) and a disturbed state (WEATHER) ( R.W.Schunk, Space Weather, Geophysical Monograph 125,AGU, WDC, 2001). In other words, slow variations of long term averages are the subject of climatology ; and the short term variations are the subject of weather. The influence of fluctuations of the solar source can be the atmost importance for the terrestrial climate (besides, continential drift, ocean currents, vulcanism; position of the Earth in space, the fall of the bodies into the NES etc.)

30. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 30 This influence can be direct: (i) if solar irradiance is tied with solar magnetic activity, it is reasonable to expect that irradiance and sunspot numbers are correlated with each other. In order to determine whether a climatic effect is visible, we must have irradiance information available on climatic scales of many decades to centuries. Unfortunately, irradiance data goes back to only 1980’s. (SWARM-Internet Space Weather and Radio Propagation Forecasting Course, 1996-2001). In other words, Solar radiation varies according to the nature of the emission site-a sunspot does not radiate in the same way as a facula or a coronal hole. A variation of 0.3 % of the solar constant(!) (i.e. 4 Watts per Sq.m) results in average variation of 0.4 deg.of celsius of the average temperature on the Earth. Certain studies show an influence of the 11 – year solar cycle on some meteorological phenomena. (J. Lilensten and J. Bornarel, Space Weather, Enviroment and Societies,Springer, 2006)

31. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 31 (ii) The written records of the sunspots dates back to 1600 AD. Chinese sunspot observations are sporadic and dates back to 3000-4000 years ago. Indirectly the C 14 content in trees will be anticorrelated with solar activity. That is, C 14 is produced by the cosmic rays. Due to the Forbusch decrease if cosmic ray concentration is low, then this period is a high sunspot or active solar activity period. There exist very early observations of auroral observations from Chine, Japan and Korea.

32. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 32 The little ice age was the name given to the period between 1550 to 1750 when winters were so called that the big rivers of mid-latitude Europe froze over. Between 1650 and 1750 there was a heavy draught in the South-West of North America. The whole period correspondance to the Maunder minimum during which there were no sunspots on the Sun. The Sun was unusually active between 1100 and 1250 AD – called “ Grand Maximum”. During this period, even in the northern countries the climate was so mild that wine could be grown at latitudes beyond 50 deg.N ! ( F. Jansen, Space Weather Consortium, Space Weather CD-ROM,ESTW, 2002 )

33. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 33

34. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 34 climate system produced by solar variability increasing concentrations of [CO 2 ], aerosols. trends detected also http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html

35. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 35 What is Space Weather?

36. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 36 Our Sun is one of the ordinary stars of the Milky Way Galaxy which consists of about 100 billion stars. The Milky Way (MW) is only one of about 100 billion galaxies that exist in our Universe. The Sun orbits the center of the MW every 225 million years. Therefore, our solar system rotates around the center of the MW at a speed of 830 000 km per hour. The sun radiates at all wavelengths from gamma rays to radio waves as depicten ın the next slide. (F. Jansen,2002 )

37. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 37 The Sun radiates at all wavelengths from gamma rays to radio waves as shown in the next slide.

38. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 38 The yellow line shows the Sun’s spectrum form X-rays to radio waves.

39. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 39

40. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 40

41. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 41 Departments of Space Sciences and Technology (ESF-SSC, 1990)

42. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 42

43. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 43

44. (Courtesy of L.Lanzerotti, ESSW4, 5-9 Nov. 2007, Brussels) STRUCTURE 1.What is space weather Issues for a.Upper atmosphere effects b.Charged particle environments c.Humans in Space d.Upstream drivers of space weather Extreme events Long-term change Summary 25.06.2015 44 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

45. What is space weather? Space weather is the physical and phenomenological state of natural space environments. The associated discipline aims, through observation, monitoring, analysis and modelling, at understanding and predicting the state of the sun, the interplanetary and planetary environments, and the solar and non-solar driven perturbations that affect them; and also at forecasting and nowcasting the possible impacts on biological and technological systems. Text: courtesy COST Action 724 Image: courtesy L. Lanzerotti 25.06.2015 45 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

46. Upper atmosphere Dominates (~90%) economic impact of Space Weather –Potentially large Euro market for SpW services Effects include drag, radio propagation, induction sources Comms/GNSS Scintillation – loss of phase lock SAR – along-track coherence of ionospheric path D region – absorption X-ray flares, protons E/F region – reflection/refraction – magnetic storms/aurora 25.06.2015 46 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

47. Energetic particles in space Strategic issue for spacecraft design & operations –Potential Euro market for SpW services Diverse space-based effects –charging – by keV-MeV electrons (rad belt, aurora, plasmasheet, SEP) –radiation damage (e.g. solar cells, DNA) – by > MeV ions (rad belt, SAA, solar events, cosmic rays) –single event effects (state changes in microelectronics) – by >> MeV ions (rad belt, solar events, cosmic rays) Image: courtesy ESA Cluster array power 2001-2007 25.06.2015 47 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

48. Very energetic particles (> GeV) penetrate the atmosphere –Cosmic rays, solar energetic particles –Influx controlled by geomagnetic field (highest at poles) –Collisions generate secondary neutrons (peak flux ~ 20 km, significant at 10 km, some flux at surface) Cause significant single event effects in avionics SEE now growing issue for ground-based electronics –dominant factor limiting reliability of digital electronics –major issue for safety-critical systems, e.g. in cars –also issue for range of high-voltage power systems Cosmic rays also influence atmosphere –Clear link with cloud cover in maritime regions (Harrison, 2006) –Can ~100 keV electrons from cosmic rays seed lightning strokes? Energetic particles in the atmosphere … semiconductor memory failures induced by cosmic radiation are no longer an “aerospace problem”. Such failure mechanisms must be accounted for in automotive electronics systems design. www.automotivedesignline.com, June 2006 25.06.2015 48 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

49. Humans in space Radiation is direct hazard to astronauts –DNA damage, increased cancer risk, Space station protected by Earth’s magnetic field Moon and Mars are NOT protected The luck of Apollo Danger on Mars radiation hits on rover camera 25.06.2015 49 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

50. Upstream drivers Space Weather is a natural hazard – a consequence of living near a star –Analogous to living next to volcanoes, rivers, etc Courtesy NASA Need to understand science that controls this environment –Behaviour of that star –How energy and momentum propagate to our planet Propagation includes –Solar wind + embedded magnetic field –Plasma transport across magnetopause (confinement boundary) –Magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling – magnetically guided Common physics with magnetically confined plasmas for fusion 25.06.201550ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

51. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 51

52. Extreme Events But they are rare – so main issue is detection and then patience until normal conditions return. Which critical systems need to cope? How to advise users on the day? Extreme events are important as they produce major disruption often beyond scope of routine mitigation. 25.06.2015 52 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

53. Long-term change in SpW Solar change –Are we at grand (300-year) maximum in solar activity (& its effects at Earth)? –Will 21 st century see collapse in activity (similar to 17 th century)? –What are consequences: enhanced cosmic ray fluxes, bigger solar particle events? Green-house gases –Will cool upper atmosphere –Some evidence in long-term ionospheric data-sets –Also evidence from EISCAT continuous run for IHY Geomagnetic field –Westward motion of SAA –Decline in magnetospheric protection Rising trend in geomagnetic activity 18602010 19302010 25.06.2015 53 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

54. (Courtesy of L.Lanzerotti, ESSW4, 5-9 Nov. 2007, Brussels) SUMMARY Space Weather has increasing impact on people and technology –Not limited to space, has very profound effects in upper atmosphere and applications therein –Growing awareness of sea-level effects and their impact on applications (e.g. electronics, power grids, etc). –Has role in “Space Situational Awareness” Highlights need to understand space environment 25.06.2015 54 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

55. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 55 “Condition on the sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space- borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health.” (US NS Weather Plan)

56. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 56 “Space Weather” is the physical and phenomenological state of Ecospace, the region where human activities interact with the terrestrial and space environments. Maserotti, 2004

57. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 57 Why is Space Weather so Important ? Space Weather is an application-oriented discipline and addresses the needs of users. But, it is important to note that basic research in the field of Solar-Terrestrial Physics is necessary for Space Weather applications. SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL PHYSICS SPACE WEATHER Basic ResearchApplication Oriented Scientific ObservationsContinuous Monitoring Scientific ProductsService Products (Norma Crosby, Private Comm.)

58. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 58 The aurora borealis as seen from the ground. Different colors arise because different atmospheric gases are excited, and the excitation occurs at different altitudes as a result of the wide energy spread of the exciting electrons (from: Rice University educational home pages; http://space.rice.edu/).

59. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 59 This image of the auroral oval shows the bright emissions that occur in the atmosphere at altitudes between 80 and 300 kilometers when atoms are excited by energetic electrons traveling along magnetic field lines. This image was obtained from the Dynamics Explorer spacecraft over the north polar region during winter, when the entire aurora borealis was over the night hemisphere of the Earth. (from: Dynamics Explorer University of Iowa Imaging Experiment, L.A. Frank principal investigator).

60. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 60 G.Siscoe, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 62 (2000), 1223-1232 Those components of which that are vulnerable to space weather distrubances form the cyberelectrosphere at the center of the triquetra This figure attempts to show how to cyberelectrosphere emerges from an interaction between the subjects socitey, science and space weather The overlap of space weather and science has given rise to the fields of space physics and aeronomy Before science the overlap of society and space weather in the form of low altitude auroras that acompany space storms gave rise to omens and wonders The cyberelectrosphere denotes a global, electrically enabled, technological environment that space storms attack Society Science Space Weather Omen Wonders Space Physics & Aeronomy Tech- nology Cyberelectro- sphere

61. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 61 WIRED FOR POWER LINKED FOR COMMUNICATION NETWORKED FOR INFORMATION SERVICED BY SATELLITES SPACE SHIP EARTH F. Jansen, R. Hippler, Space Weather Edition II CD, Univ. Greifswald, Inst. Of Phys.,Germany. The future European navigation system “Galileo” will contain some measures to compensate for space weather effects. This image shows the first few satellites of the system.

62. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 62 October 28, 2003 October 29, 2003 11:06h 11:16h 0:00h 6:00h 12:00h 18:00h 24:00h x17.2 and 10.0 flares! ( Oct 28) Sunspots (Oct 28 -07:14h) http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov Halloween Storm

63. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 63 F. Jansen, R. Hippler, Space Weather Edition II CD, Univ. Greifswald, Inst. Of Phys., Germany.

64. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 64 Problems in Birds’ Navigation Homing pigeons and most migrating birds use the magnetic field of the Earth to navigate. They have tiny magnets in their brain which act as a kind of compass. If the magnetic fields is distorted during a geomagnetic storm, the birds may get lost and cannot find home. F. Jansen, R. Hippler, Space Weather Edition II CD, Univ. Greifswald, Inst. Of Phys., Germany.

65. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 65 In the framework of the global electric circuit between the Sun and the Earth the probable influence of Cosmic Rays have been studied. In this context it is expected that cloudiness will increase during solar minimum periods. Why?

66. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 66 (Carslaw et al.,2002)

67. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 67

68. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 68 What Do we Do in Turkey? Some typical Examples

69. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 69 Any space weather service must be able to give reliable predictions of the Sun’s activity and its impact on the space environment and human activities.

70. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 70 The ST and atmospheric environments is influenced by extraterrestrial and terrestrial EM and electrodynamic processes, intimately linked to global climate change.

71. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 71 Since 1990’s European Union Actions COST 238; COST 251; COST 271; COST 296; COST 724 ESF SPECIAL I and II; E-STAR Framework Programs:FP6;FP7

72. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 72 *ANN is a novel structure of the information processing system. *composed of a large number of highly interconnected processing elements (neurones) working in parallel to solve specific problems. *ANNs learn like people, by training.

73. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 73 Case-1 : METU-NN model for non-linear agro-environmental systems (Tulunay, 2002)

74. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 74 Observed and Forecast Flow values versus the order of data points. Superimposed in a solid line is the one month advance forecast values of the Flow. Scatter Diagram of the Forecast and Observed Flow values with the linear fit line. A fitted line has a slope close to 45  passing through the origin

75. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 75 Case-2 : METU-NN model for low altitude clouds (Tulunay, 2003)

76. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 76 One month ahead Forecast versus Observed % Cloud fraction values with linear fit line. One month ahead Forecast (solid) and Observed (dashed) % Cloud fraction values (April 1989 to December 1990).

77. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 77 Case-3 : METU-NN model for Solar Flux Forcasting ( Özkök, 2005)

78. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 78 One hour ahead forecast of solar fluxes at 2695 MHz Horizontal axis refers to the normalized obtained values; vertical axis refers to the normalized measured values.

79. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 79 Models Pamplona, Feast of St. Fermin, July 7, 2001 Forecasters & Ops Specs J. Kunches,NOAA SEC, COSPAR 2002, Houston, October 19, 2002.

80. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 80 CONCLUSION

81. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 81

82. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 82 SpW is set to become of increasing importance in our daily lives as our dependence on technological systems increases.

83. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 83 Although learnt a great deal about the Sun-Earth system and its effects on the Earth still far from understanding the complete picture.

84. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 84 More research is still needed to reliably predict the strength and duration of a space weather event at the Earth

85. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 85 Data driven forecast and modeling is very promising in Space Weather applications.

86. 25.06.2015ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 86 Applications can be twofold: Future Retrospective