1. The interprefectural migration of foreign residents of Japan: salient features and multivariate explanation
Yoshitaka Ishikawa (Kyoto University, Japan)
and
Kao-Lee Liaw (McMaster University, Canada)
The 4th International Conference on Population Geographies
at Hong Kong, China, on 12 July, 2007

2. Existing literature focused on foreign residents in Japan
◆There has been a proliferation of research since the mid-1980s, when massive immigration started.
◆ Foreigner rate is low (1.6%）, but absolute number is large (approximately 2 million).
◆It is now an important research subject of all social sciences including geography.

3. Difficulty in studying migration of foreign residents in Japan
◆ No comprehensive source; general migration patterns have remained unknown.
◆ Published Reports of 2000 Census
　1) specific origins are unknown both for immigration and internal migration
　 2) detailed migrants’ attributes are unknown
　⇒special application to Japanese Statistics Bureau to obtain micro data samples

4. Three perspectives to explain destination choice

5. Comparison of interprefectural migration between foreign residents and total population
Groupings of Prefectures
Net-migration
Rate
(Persons)
( % )
The Three Largest Metropolitan Areas
-570
-0.10
164,912
0.28
Tokyo Area
354
0.14
235,743
0.74
Nagoya Area
1,848
2.13
21,893
0.21
Osaka Area
-2,772
-1.15
-92,724
-0.53
Metropolitan Fringes
600
1.21
32,280
0.41
Manufacturing Stronghold
1,894
4.45
-10,552
-0.16
Tohoku Region
-372
-2.44
-41,423
-0.44
Rest of Japan
-1,552
-1.52
-145,217
-0.39

6. Net-migration rate of Japanese interprefectural migration, 1995-2000

7. Major foreign residents in Japan (2000)
Census Alien registration
ethnicity 1,310, ,686,444
(1.03%) (1.33%)
Korean , ,269
Chinese , ,575
Brazil , ,394
Filipino , ,871
Others , ,335

8. General features by major ethnicity

9. General features by educational attainment

10. Nested logit model ⇒sample size: 69,308 persons
　 Departure sub-model:
　　　 ⇒ dependent variable: choice probability of stay in, or departure from, the prefecture of usual residence in 1995
⇒sample size: 69,308 persons
　Destination choice sub-model :
⇒ dependent variable: choice probability of a particular destination among 46 prefectures
⇒ sample size: 42,301 persons

11. Explanatory variables
　 Individual attributes <De, DC> : age, educational attainment, sex, ethnicity, family status
Labour market related <De, DC> : employment opportunity, income level
　 Co-ethnic attraction <De, DC>
Marital opportunity : <De, DC>
Prefectural size <De, DC>
Competition with new immigrants <De, DC>
Spatial separation <DC>: distance, contiguity
Inclusive variable <De>

12. Why is international marriage in Tohoku region important?
● The stem family system is dominant in such region as Tohoku. To maintain this system, marriage is essential for household head’s son as successor.
●Due to imbalanced sex ratio, the issue of marriage squeeze for male population is serious in eastern half of Japan.
⇒Tohoku has both the first and second conditions. Unless household head’s son find Japanese new bride, he tends to look for his bride with foreign nationality.

13. New Immigration and Interprefectural Migration

14. Application result of departure submodel

15. Application result of destination choice submodel

16. Conclusion
Major destinations: Nagoya metropolitan area, manufacturing stronghold (not Tokyo metropolitan area)
Highly mobile persons: Brazilian, graduates from university
Application result of nested logit model
<departure sub-model> ethnicity, age, educational attainment, competition with new immigrants, co-ethnic attraction
<destination choice sub-model> spatial separation, prefectural size, employment opportunity, co-ethnic attraction

17. Implications of the findings
Comparison of explanatory power of international marraige between new immigration and interprefectural migration: Role of international marriage in the former is larger than that in the latter.
Comparison of migration pattern between foreigner and Japanese: Net inflow to Tokyo metropolitan area for Japanese is much larger than that for foreigner.
⇒Interprefectural migration by foreign residents has contributed to a reduction of “monopolar concentration in Tokyo”.
⇒”hollowization” of manufacturing employment opportunity may lead to an intensification of “monopolar concentration in Tokyo”.