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Nov 2011 Banking Sector Q3-2011 Update
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P/E Regional Comparisons Banking IndicesP/E ( OCT 2011) Amman Banking Index13.67 Kuwait Banking Index21.44 Muscat Banking Index12.83 Bahrain Banking Index15.36 Dubai Banking Index9.22 Egypt Banking Index6.9 Saudi Banking Index13.19 Qatar Banking Index13.39 Abu Dhabi Banking Index7.37 The P/E of Amman Banking Index is around the average P/E in the Region
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P/E Sector Comparisons at ASE Sector Indices at ASEP/E (Oct 2011) Banking Index13.67 Telecommunications Index14.07 Insurance Index12.13 Real Estate IndexNA Hotel & Tourism Index24.39 The P/E of the Banking Index at ASE is one of the Lowest in the Market
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Liquidity Sector Comparisons at ASE Main Sub-Sectors Turnover Oct YTD 2011 (mm) Turnover as % of Capitalization Banking3594.1% Real Estate67818% Mining & Extraction1463.2% Hotel & Tourism12119.7% commercial Services12937.6% Technology & Communications171.2% Diversified Financial Services429106% Insurance6318% Total Market2,44612.9% The Liquidity of the Banking Sector at ASE is adequate
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Net Income Projections Our Forecast Methodology of Net Income: Over 90% of the revenue of banks comes from core activities, thus figures are usually predictable Natural growth of loans, deposits and general and administrative expenses are forecasted - taking into account economical outlook. Credit provisions to be taken each year, is the one expense at banks which can largely impact the net income projections. Accordingly extensive research and fundamental methodologies are being applied by Al- Hekma to better forecast the needed credit provisions to be taken by individual banks.
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Credit Provision Projections Methodology Annually banks include in their financial reporting information on: Non-performing loans Interest in suspense Under supervision loans Security Credit provisions
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CBJ Regulations on Credit Provisioning Banks to fully provide for unsecured NPLs within 1 year. Banks to provide 20% for secured NPLs within 1 year.
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2011 Estimated Provisions as of 2010 2010 - JD millionsCABKTHBKAHLIBOJXJOKBAVG. Non Performing Loans 46.3 261.9 174.4 86.7 42.7 122.4 NPL/Gross Loans 5.3%10.0%14.6%8.5%3.5%8.4% Credit Provisions 44.3142.881.152.942.972.8 CP/NPL 95.7%54.5%46.5%61.0%100.5%71.6% Under Supervision Loans 26.9 152.0 200.7 84.5 124.8 117.8 USL/Gross Loans 3.1%5.8%16.8%8.3%10.3%8.8% Estimated Provisions for 2011 2.0 41.6 22.8 12.9 4.9 16.4
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2011 Provisions as of Q3 Q3 2011 - JD millionsCABKTHBKAHLIBOJXJOKBAVG. Non Performing Loans 48.7236.8*183.2*112.164.8* Change in millions from 2010 +2.4-25.1*+8.8+25.4+22.1 NPL/Gross Loans6.1%8.7%14%10.1%5.2% CP taken by Q3 4.432.412.28.87.4 Credit Provisions 48.7148.193.361.650.3 CP/NPL 100%66.8%50.9%55.0%77.6% IIS 11.051.653.011.54.1 CP/(NPL-IIS)129.2%80%71.6%61.2%82.9% New Estimated Provisions for 2011 ↑ 5.0** S 41.622.8 ↑25.0*** ↑20.0** 16.4 *Mid-year numbers. ** Provisions for the year revised upwards based on mid-year provisions *** Provisions increased from 12.9 to 25 to cover Syrian Exposure
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Financial Strength 2010 - JD millionsCABKTHBKAHLIBOJXJOKB Total Assets 1,8436,6802,5191,9692,084 Equity (shareholders) 206920227236321 Credit Facilities 8232,4491,0679611,170 Customer Deposits 1,3364,8091,6641,4831,305 Net Income ( shareholders) 34,779.022,931,751,9 ROE 16.9%9.6%10.1%13.6%16.3% ROAA 1.9%1.4%1.0%1.7%2.5% EPS 0.350.310.210.320.52 Net Interest Margin 7.21%5.7%4.7%7.0%6.01% Financial Strength S:Strong M: Medium SSMSS Main Financial Indicators to Determine Financial Strength:
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Financial Strength Q3 2011 - JD millionsCABKTHBKAHLIBOJXJOKB Total Assets 1,8696,7462,50220732,164 Change % 1.4%1.0%(0.7%)10.7%3.8% Equity (shareholders) 215923231252330 Change PCT 4.4%0.3%1.8%17.8%2.8% Credit Facilities 9052,5291,17210391,200 Change % 10.0%3.3%9.8%8.1%2.6% Customer Deposits 1,3474,7331,6721,5381,317 Change % 0.8%(1.6%)0.5%3.8%0.9% Net Income ( shareholders) 26.867.018.228.023.4 Main Financial Indicators to Determine Financial Strength:
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Financial Strength Q3 2011 - JD millionsCABKTHBKAHLIBOJXJOKB Original Net Income Projections 34.281.120.629.550.1 NI Q3 2011 ( shareholders) 26.867.018.228.023.4 NI Q3 2010 (shareholders) 24.163.916.123.3 ROE 12.5%7.3%7.9%11.1%7.1% ROAA 1.44%1.00%0.73%1.39%1.1% EPS 0.2680.2660.1440.180.234 Mid year Net Interest Margin 3.71%2.93%2.63%3.75%3.05% Updated NI Projections ↑35.8↑ 89.7↑ 21.9↓25.0↓ 39.4 Main Financial Indicators to Determine Financial Strength:
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2011 Net Income & P/E Projections 2011 ProjectionsCABKTHBKAHLIBOJXJOKB 1. Net Income (after tax) excluding credit provisions- JD millions 39.2118.937.942.455.2 2.P/E excl Credit Prov. 6.816.84.67.86.6 3.Net Income- JD millions 35.889.721.9725.039.4 4.P/E 7.522.47.913.39.2 5.P/E Gap: L4-L2 0.75.63.35.52.6 Conclusion: The selection process focuses on banks with a low P/E (below 12%), provided that P/E excluding credit provisions (L2) is not lower than P/E (L4) by more than 3. If gap is higher then it means that the bank still needs at least 1-2 years of additional provisions to fill the gap. 2011 P/E Projections:
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Testing Criteria on Selected Banks 2011CABTHBKAHLIBOJXJOKBCriteria Projected P/E7.522.47.913.39.2<12 Projected PE Gap 0.75.63.35.51.4 <3 P/BV1.252.950.741.331.21<1.75 Projected Dividend Yield 5.23%3.14%5.92%4.7%4.94%>4.5% Fin. StrengthStrong Medium Mediu m/Stro ng** M-S Ranking1xxxx *Exposure in Syria has reduced financial strength. ** Expected exposure to certain real estate and trading corporations which are currently believed to be facing financial difficulties
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