2. Lula da Silva Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Brazil By Ted Goertzel Rutgers University Camden NJ 08102

3. January 1, 2003 Democratic transition from from Fernando Henrique Cardoso to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

4. Childhood Lula da Silva Born 27 Oct 1945 in the interior of Pernambuco Seventh of eight children Father left for São Paulo and his wife’s cousin just before Lula was born Raised in extreme poverty in the interior of Pernambuco Mother, Dona Lindu, the dominant influence in his childhood Fernando Henrique Born 18 June 1931 in Rio de Janeiro First born of three Good relationship with both parents Raised in a family with a distinguished history Father a leftist army officer, lawyer and politician Paternal grandmother dominant figure at home

5. Lula at 3 years old with sister Maria. The clothes and shoes were loaned to him for the photograph. Fernando Henrique with his mother and his paternal grandmother.

6. Parents and siblings Grandfather on his white horse Father beside a bust of FHC’s grandfather. FHC : Scion of the Aristocracy

7. Cardoso is a Social Democrat but is often stigmatized as a “neoliberal.” He was elected President in 1994 by an alliance between his Brazilian Social Democratic Party and the Party of the Liberal Front. He was sent to the Senate in1982 by the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party. As a youth, he was affiliated with a cultural group of the Brazilian Communist Party.

8. Lula the perennial candidate of the Workers Party

9. Parties in Lula’s 2003 Electoral Alliance

10. Some Questions What difference does the change in ideology and party politics make? What difference does the difference in personal leadership make? Why has the Lula government been characterized as “the third term of the FHC government”? What are the likely future trends?

11. Lula’s parents: Aristides and Euridice (Dona Lindu) Lula growing up...

12. Lula on His Father “I feel bad about my father (tenho mágoa) because I think he was very ignorant. He was a fount of ignorance (um poço de ignorância). He died in1978 as an indigent.” Lula’s father was illiterate and did not want any of his children to surpass him by going to school. He carried a newspaper to work, sometimes upside down. He earned enough as a longshoreman in Santos to support two families.

13. Lula on His Mother “I thank God for my mother’s courage… At a time of great misery, my mother raised five sons who became poor but honest men and three daughters who did not have to prostitute themselves. I believe this is a very noble thing.” “My mother sold her watch, her donkey, her religious statues, her family photographs, she sold everything, everything she had to leave the Northeast.”

14. A Mother’s Boy He felt humiliated and neglected by his father He told his brothers the best thing their father ever did for them was to leave with another woman He rebelled against his father by getting an education and having a more successful career He cried the first time he spent a night away from his mother - on his honeymoon His mother strongly supported his drive to get an education He won the struggle for his mother’s love when she broke with his two-timing father

15. Youth Lula da Silva Mother and siblings moved to Santos in the back of a truck when he was seven Worked as vendor, shoe shiner and delivery boy Public elementary school Mother separated from abusive husband, moved to São Paulo with children Won admission to three- year training program as a lathe mechanic Fernando Henrique Father encouraged him to pursue his literary and intellectual interests Did well in school, but failed Latin exam for law school Majored in social sciences because of interest in Brazilian nationalism Involved with an intellectual journal linked to the Communist Party

16. Lula with youthful friends. Fernando Henrique with wife Ruth and son

17. Young Adulthood Lula da Silva Marries a fellow worker Wife and newborn die in childbirth with poor medical care Works as a lathe operator Marries a widow, Marisa, who has a son Becomes active in the metal workers union Jailed briefly by military regime as a strike leader Fernando Henrique Marries a fellow student and starts a family Joins Marxist study group with friends who become leading intellectuals Begins academic career Forced into comfortable exile by the 1964 military coup Becomes intellectual star in exile in Chile and France

18. Arrested by the military police in 1980 during a 41 day general strike in the industrial suburbs of Sao Paulo.

19. Lula’s wife Marisa in front of the church where they were married, and showing the first PT flag which she sewed.

20. Discussing politics in 1975

21. Entering Politics Lula da Silva Decided to join the group forming the Workers Party in 1979 when the military allows multiple parties Joins in forming an independent labor federation, the Central Única dos Trabalhadores in 1983 Joins the campaign for Direct Elections Now! in 1984 Fernando Henrique Decides not to join the Workers Party and joins the Party of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Elected as Alternate to the Senate on MDB ticket, succeeds to Senate when Franco Montoro becomes governor of São Paulo Joins the campaign for Direct Elections Now! in 1984

22. Discussions in 1979 leading to the founding of the Partido dos Trabalhadores. Upper left is a discussion with Communist Party leaders.

23. Direct Elections Now!

24. Lula’s Political Campaigns 1982, loses campaign for governor of São Paulo 1986, elected to Constituent Assembly to draft new constitution, FHC one of the leaders 1989, loses run-off for Presidency to Fernando Collor, later impeached for corruption 1994, loses Presidency to Fernando Henrique Cardoso, the Finance Minister who ended inflation 1998, loses Presidency to Fernando Henrique Cardoso as country weathers economic storm 2002, elected President of Brazil on the first round after moderating his platform

25. On the campaign trail Registering the Workers Party in 1980

26. Lula’s 1989 Campaign

27. The 1989 PT Party Convention

28. Campaigning in Porto Alegre in 1988

29. Time goes by and so many at work. Suddenly, this clarity to notice Who has always been sincere and to trust, Without fear of being happy. I want to see it come... Lula-lá! A star is shining! Lula-lá! Hope grows! Lula-lá! In this child-Brazil and in the joy of embracing... Lula-lá! With sincerity, Lula-lá! Certainly! Lula-lá! For you, my first vote, Lula-lá! To make our star shine! Lula-lá! That's we together! Lula-lá! It was worth the wait! Lula-lá! My first vote To make our star shine! ("Lula lá!", by Hilton Acioly, theme-tune of the 1989 campaign).

30. Campaign Materials 1988

31. 1994 Campaign photos Upper left with Manoelzao Lower left with Cinta Larga and Surui Indians

32. Victory! 2003 Inauguration

33. Personal History FHC: His privileged family background and intellectual brilliance make it difficult for him to relate to common people, through the mass media. He is strong in one-on-one relationships. Lula - His success story is inspiring and gives him the ability to empathize with common people. People of all classes really want him to succeed. Lula - His mixture of radical rhetoric and pragmatic policies is rooted in his experience as a union leader and speaks to the emotional and practical needs of the Brazilian people

34. Biographer Brito Alves on Lula’s Personality Restless, pugnacious, well spoken, authentic, charismatic, strong willed, persistent and determined, full of initiative, creativity and leadership spirit Ethical and engaged, struggles tooth and nail for the interests of the workers Has much in common with George Bush: informality, frankness and human warmth Likes soap operas, magazines, cooking on a wood stove, smoking, informal socializing. Emotional, cries easily, likes to touch people, doesn’t like being alone, doesn’t hold grudges

35. Leadership Traits Strength - FHC and Lula are both strong leaders working in a democratic framework Competence - FHC is exceptionally competent, Lula relies on advisors Empathy - Lula is warm and expressive, FHC is dry and academic, perceived as “distant from the people”

36. The Cardoso Effect: Monthly Inflation Rates

38. The Cardoso Effect: the minimum salary buys more food

39. The Cardoso Effect: Infant Mortality Rates

40. Communicating feelings at a press conference with Finance Minister Antonio Palocci

41. Political Parties The Workers Party is more organized and disciplined than Brazil’s other major parties, with the ideological left a marginalized minority It has a reputation for honesty and idealism, sadly compromised by some recent scandals Its historic base is the labor aristocracy and state employees - a sort of UAW/AFSCME merger Cardoso’s Social Democratic Party has more business and middle class private sector support. The other parties are more regional and careerist, often focused around leading personalities Party affiliations are often fluid Brazil

42. Francisco de Oliveira on the PT and the PSDB The Workers Party (PT ) is led by workers transformed into operators of pension funds The Social Democratic Party (PSDB) is led by technicians and economists, many of whom have gone to work in banks The nucleus of the PSDB was trained at the Catholic University in Rio, the nucleus of the PT was trained at the Getulio Vargas Foundation Business School in Rio Both parties are based on controlling public funds. Francisco dropped out of the Workers Party in 2003

43. The Liberal Party is a small group with a base among Protestant activists. The alliance with them showed that the PT was willing to play the Brazilian political game of opportunistic coalitions. Lula with Vice President Jose Alencar of the Liberal Party

44. Ideology Lula was always a “bread and butter” unionist and democrat, not a leftist ideologue The term “Neoliberalism” is used as a way of expressing anti-market feelings without advocating a non-market economy. “Liberalism” is a positive term as is “Socialism” but neither is used to refer to explicit policies Both FHC and Lula are social democrats with similar policy goals, but it is not not expedient for Lula to admit this. Lula is more sympathetic to nationalist and state- led development ideas

45. The Lula Administration The key ministries are in the hands of pragmatic moderates, with radical histories, who have continued FHC’s economic model Less central ministries have been given to more ideological appointees There have been some difficulties in keeping the troops in line because of the mismatch between rhetoric and resources There has been a learning curve, many of the functionaries are less experienced than those in the FHC administration

46. Key Leaders Key day-to-day leadership is administered by a core of experienced Workers Party leaders that have Lula’s full confidence Some of these men had quite radical politics in their younger days, but have become convinced that Brazil needs to continue with the general policy framework established by FHC

47. Antônio Palocci Finance Minister - primary responsibility for economic policy Physician and former mayor of Ribeirão Preto, a small city in the state of São Paulo Formerly a Trotskyist, he was central to the ideological transformation of the PT Has good relations with the business community Known for a “light” personal style

48. Finance Minister Antonio Palocci meets with Businessmen

49. José Dirceu Chief of Staff - operational control of the government Student Union leader in late 1960s confrontation with the military regime Exile in Cuba, clandestine activity in Paraná Founding member of Workers Party Elected to state and federal legislatures

50. Dirceu Resigns Because of Corruption Scandal and Returns to Congress in June 2005

51. The “SuperShorts” Scandal (a political leader caught on an airplane with questionable funds hidden in his underwear)

57. Replaced by Dilma Rouseff Formerly energy minister Known as Brazil’s “Iron Lady” for hard bargaining Fought the military dictatorship from 1964-1985 as a left-wing guerilla Expected to be a strong manager

58. Guido Mantega Minister of Planning, Budget and Management Worked with FHC in the 1970s Doctorate in sociology Economics professor at Getulio Vargas Foundation Lula’s economic advisor during the campaign Supports autonomy for the Central Bank

59. Henrique Meirelles President of the Central Bank Formerly a federal deputy for the PSDB from Goiás Educated at Harvard Business School President of Banco do Boston no Brasil, FleetBoston Global and World President of BankBoston Provides expertise and reassurance of continuity and stability in the financial system

60. Less Central Leaders Less critical ministries are often run by people with strong reputations outside of government These ministries also provide representation for minority groups and minor parties in Lula’s coalition These leaders help to build understanding and support for cultural and social changes

61. Minister of Culture Gilberto Gil and Actor Carlos Mamberti review participants on National Samba Day Gilberto Gil is one of the most important singers, composers and instrumentalists in Brazilian popular music. Fluent in English, French, he is affiliated with the Green Party

62. Minister of Sport Agnelo Queiroz visits the Olympic Village of Indigenous Games in Palmas, Tocantins. A physician from Bahia and former federal deputy, he is a leader of the PC do B, the Communist Party of Brazil

63. Cristovam Buarque Tarso Genro Cristovam Buarque was replaced as Minister of Education when he persisted in criticizing the government for not spending more on the universities. He was replaced by Tarso Genro, former Workers Party Mayor of Porto Alegre and Marxist scholar

64. The “Zero Hunger” program was poorly conceived and administered. It has now been folded into the Ministry of Social Development and has resumed emphasis on the family scholarship program begun by Cristovam Buarque and popularized under FHC. José Graziano, former Minister of Food Security and Combat Against Hunger

65. Lula’s Personal Leadership Lula is focusing on retail politics, ceremonial occasions and foreign travel He retains great personal popularity despite spending a great deal of time on foreign travel, a practice for which the Workers Party severely criticized FHC His vigorous presentation of Brazil’s international interests has been popular, although his proposals are not really new and not always realistic His criticism of United States protectionist policies is popular and justified

66. Inaugurating a Health Club for the Elderly

67. With the President of Paraguay at Foz de Iguacu

68. With swimming star Gustavo Borges

69. Giving Senator Jeferson Peres the Order of Military Merit

70. Lula is a social drinker whose job requires him to attend a great many social events. He also is inclined to gain weight from attending too many banquets.

72. He relates well to foreign leaders

73. Of all political persuasions..

74. The Lula Government Contentious Issues The most difficult and significant accomplishment has been to push significant civil service and pension reform measures through Congress A proposal to give autonomy to the Central Bank has caused protests from nationalists Setting the minimum wage has been highly controversial, with some politicians resigning from leadership positions in protest at the R$260 figure established by the Lula government

75. Thirty thousand people protest social security reform, in Brasilia, June 2003

76. Dirceu to public employees: The Government will no longer negotiate the social security reform.

77. Public employees smash windows in Congress to try to stop the vote on social security reform.

78. In carrying out this reform, Lula was implementing a proposal that the Workers Party and its allies had blocked under FHC.

79. WARNING! Do not be fooled by the wolf dressed in sheep’s clothing. He wants to privatize public services. The Federal Government’s Administrative Reform proposal will weaken the Brazilian State. We will revive the public service with professional training for public servants and better use of the contributors’ money. Only in this way will we have schools, hospitals, police services… of good qualify for all. Wake up while there is still time, because the bite of the wolf is near!!! Movement to Defend the Public Service Parliamentary Front in Defense of the Public Service This attack on FHC applies better to Lula

80. A Greenpeace protestor wearing a Lula mask. Protesting the legalization of genetically modified seeds (which Brazilian farmers will use in any event). This is another area where pragmatism has trumped ideology.

81. The Landless Farmer’s Movement is impatient with slow implementation of promises

82. Commentary The next few slides summarize analyses by a number of Brazilian intellectuals A common theme is the longing for a “national project” This is rooted in Brazilian tradition and in distaste for market economics and United States hegemony Fernando Henrique Cardoso believes implementing such a project would be a serious mistake

83. Cristovam Buarque The PT arrived in power with demands but no clear idea of how to realize them Zero Hunger is a goal, not a plan and Bolsa Familia is not socially innovative “Combine pragmatism of financial equilibrium in the short run with the historic ideology of the long run. Unleash [desentancar] the revolution.” Invest in education and “a new kind of economic development that attends the needs of the masses” The party needs to become more active in urging action on the government

84. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira There is a generalized sense of frustration with the government, but no one else has a national project either The government needs vision to deal with debt, unemployment, economic stagnation and insecurity In the campaign they blamed globalization and neoliberalism, but without offering an alternative We need a stronger state role in developing capitalism, similar to China and other Asian countries

85. Brazil: The Duck-Billed Platypus of Social Development? Sociologist Francisco de Oliveira suggests that Brazil, like the duck-billed platypus, is a creature that violates evolutionary theories but exists and is likely to continue as an evolutionary dead-end It is ruled by a “new class” based on unified objectives and an ideological consensus abut the new function of the state. The new class is concentrated at the intersection of the state and autonomous enterprises and the financial system

86. Luiz Carlos Mendonça de Barros Take India as an example They have had rapid growth based on opening to global markets in certain sectors But the Nationalist government was just thrown out because the masses felt left out We need the economic growth from the global market, together with measures to spread the wealth to the masses

87. Carlos Langoni - former Central Bank President Lula is applauded by stock brokers and businessmen because he realizes that Brazilians have tired of radical rhetoric and talk of heterodox or miraculous solutions There is no alternative path to development outside the global model The global system is intolerant of management errors. Exchange rates and fiscal policies must be stabilized from one administration to the next A new government can make investments in education, health, etc., but macroeconomic policy must be preserved to guarantee stability. Langoni edits a widely read business newsletter and advises companies.

88. Geraldo Alckmin PSDB Governor of São Paulo Investment, foreign and domestic, is low (17% of GDP) because investors lack confidence in the government Taxes and interest rates are too high and the government’s statements about the economy are dubious and inconsistent and lack conviction Palocci is a good man, but he lost the opportunity to lower interest rates. The crisis that started in 2002 was due to doubts about the PT’s policies.

89. César Benjamin One option is to integrate with the United States in ACLA, which would give up Brazilian autonomy The second option is a Latin American development project independent of the United States The second would guarantee our sovereignty and continue the project of Simon Bolívar, José Martí, Ernesto Guevara and Darcy Ribeiro. The independence of the Central Bank is designed to serve the interest of the US and ACLA.

90. Advisors to the Catholic Bishops Agrarian reform is too slow, due to the financial constraints The technocrats are in control and “new social model” is not being implemented More must be done against corruption and social disorder Gun control and protections against genetically modified foods are needed The economy is focused on paying debt through taxes, high interest rates and cutting expenditures, not on social justice

91. Workers’ Party Journal: “Where is the Lula government going?” Ending hunger Ending unemployment should have been given equal weight We are in an epoch of transition of organizational paradigms From a neoliberal paradigm to “the possibility of a republican paradigm” “We are speaking centrally of a change of values, rationalities and state projects to analyze and reflect on the historical impasse of three or four decades of development in Brazil.”

92. Fernando Henrique Cardoso: Risks and Options for Brazil Today One risk is a return to the military vision of Brazil as a great power, reinterpreted by the left The other risk is the return of the belief that Brazil needs a national project and an interventionist state These are archaic views that would lead to an increase in bureaucracy and rigidity We need an emphasis on effective social programs, but not state leadership of the economy Lula is acting responsibly, but sometimes speaking irresponsibly. Some self-criticism would help

93. Alternative Futures Unlikely: the “turn to the left” Lula’s leftist supporters want. Could lead to default and a collapse like Argentina 2001 More likely: a populist turn leading to a resumption of inflation, growth in bureaucracy and a Bolivian or Venezuelan future Most likely: continuing the current policy which might be characterized the Chilean model with a democratic socialist veneer

95. Sources References are given in “notes” attached to each slide (open the presentation in Powerpoint and click on “view/notes page” The photographs in this presentation come mostly from WEB sites. Some biographical sources are listed on the following slides.

96. Lula’s personal history is well documented in Denise Parana’s book. An English language review is available on my WEB site. Brito Alves, A Historia de Lula: O Operario Presidente is a shorter biography.

97. An illustrated history of the Workers’ Party in English can be found on the WEB site of a foundation established by the party in 1996: http://www.fpabramo.org.br/me moria/trajetorias_english/trajetor ias_ing.htm

98. Several books are available on FHC. An updated chapter of mine is on my WEB site. Also an English review of Carlos Micheles’ book