1. Distribution Of Transnational Terrorism Among Countries By Income Classes And Geography After 9/11 Distribution Of Transnational Terrorism Among Countries By Income Classes And Geography After 9/11 Reducing the Risks and Consequences of Terrorism CREATE Conference November 18, 2004 Walter Enders and Todd Sandler University of Southern California

2. Research Objectives Does Homeland Security have an unintended consequence of transferring terrorist attacks against Americans to foreign venues? Does Homeland Security have an unintended consequence of transferring terrorist attacks against Americans to foreign venues? Is America safer because of homeland security, while Americans are less safe? Is America safer because of homeland security, while Americans are less safe? Transference of attacks Transference of attacks –When income based, then transference is anticipated to be displaced from high-income countries (HICs) to low-income countries (LICs) as HICs deploy enhanced security measures. –When geographically based, the displacement may be from a rich region to a poorer region (e.g., the Middle East or Eurasia). Terrorists may blend in better in some regions and have more support. * After 9/11, casual empiricism suggests a transference from high- to low- income countries. * After 9/11, casual empiricism suggests a transference from high- to low- income countries.

3. Purpose Empirically evaluate with time-series methods (i.e., autoregressive intervention analysis) whether terrorists have shifted their venue based on target countries’ income or location, given security upgrades in rich countries following 9/11. Empirically evaluate with time-series methods (i.e., autoregressive intervention analysis) whether terrorists have shifted their venue based on target countries’ income or location, given security upgrades in rich countries following 9/11. –Partition countries by income classes over time –Partition countries by geography –Analyze four different time series of transnational terrorism events: all incidents; incidents with casualties; incidents with a US target; and casualty incidents with a US target. Draw policy conclusions Draw policy conclusions

4. Some Results Contrary to expectations, there is no evidence of an income- based post-9/11 transfer of attacks to low-income countries, but there is a significant transference to the Middle East and Asia where US interests are, at times, attacked. Contrary to expectations, there is no evidence of an income- based post-9/11 transfer of attacks to low-income countries, but there is a significant transference to the Middle East and Asia where US interests are, at times, attacked. The rise of fundamentalist terrorism has most impacted those regions – the Middle East and Asia – with the largest Islamic population. The rise of fundamentalist terrorism has most impacted those regions – the Middle East and Asia – with the largest Islamic population. The end to the Cold War brought a “terrorism peace dividend” that varies by income and geography among countries. The end to the Cold War brought a “terrorism peace dividend” that varies by income and geography among countries. Before 9/11, LICs had been experiencing the lion’s share of transnational terrorism with relatively few incidents in HICS. After 9/11, there has been a gradual escalation of attacks with some increases in incidents involving a US target in all three income classes. Before 9/11, LICs had been experiencing the lion’s share of transnational terrorism with relatively few incidents in HICS. After 9/11, there has been a gradual escalation of attacks with some increases in incidents involving a US target in all three income classes.

5. Preliminaries Terrorism is the premeditated use or threat of use of violence by individuals or subnational groups to obtain a political or social objective through intimidation of a large audience beyond that of the immediate victims. Terrorism is the premeditated use or threat of use of violence by individuals or subnational groups to obtain a political or social objective through intimidation of a large audience beyond that of the immediate victims. Domestic terrorism involves only the host country so that the perpetrators, victims, financing, and logistical support are all homegrown. Implications for just the venue country. Domestic terrorism involves only the host country so that the perpetrators, victims, financing, and logistical support are all homegrown. Implications for just the venue country. Terrorist attacks that include perpetrators, victims, targets, or interests from two or more countries constitute transnational terrorism. Ramifications that transcend the host country (e.g., 3/11 and 9/11). Terrorist attacks that include perpetrators, victims, targets, or interests from two or more countries constitute transnational terrorism. Ramifications that transcend the host country (e.g., 3/11 and 9/11).

6. More Preliminaries We are interested in transnational terrorism before and after 9/11, insofar as this type of terrorism poses the greatest concern for the global community. We are interested in transnational terrorism before and after 9/11, insofar as this type of terrorism poses the greatest concern for the global community. If two potential targets offer the same expected benefits for the terrorists, then they will pick the one with the smaller expected costs. When the attack venues imply the same expected costs (adjusted for risks), the terrorists will choose the location with the greater expected benefits. If two potential targets offer the same expected benefits for the terrorists, then they will pick the one with the smaller expected costs. When the attack venues imply the same expected costs (adjusted for risks), the terrorists will choose the location with the greater expected benefits. Action by a country to secure homeland targets may fail to displace the attack abroad if the terrorists sufficiently value the benefits to offset the greater expected costs. Action by a country to secure homeland targets may fail to displace the attack abroad if the terrorists sufficiently value the benefits to offset the greater expected costs.

7. Pre 9/11 Developments Rise of fundamentalist-based terrorism and increased casualties. Rise of fundamentalist-based terrorism and increased casualties. Prior to 9/11, LICs experienced most attacks and HICs experienced few attacks. Prior to 9/11, LICs experienced most attacks and HICs experienced few attacks. Post Cold War period and less state- sponsored terrorism. Also a demise of many left-wing groups. Post Cold War period and less state- sponsored terrorism. Also a demise of many left-wing groups.

8. Data ITERATE Event data ITERATE Event data For income classes, we first use the World Bank’s classification of countries into LICs, MICs, and HICs. (Per-capita income classes). For income classes, we first use the World Bank’s classification of countries into LICs, MICs, and HICs. (Per-capita income classes). Account for switches in income classes over time. Account for switches in income classes over time. Geographical classification uses US Department of State’s Patterns of Global Terrorism into six regions. Geographical classification uses US Department of State’s Patterns of Global Terrorism into six regions.

9. Income Distribution & Terrorism

10. Observations Panels show an increase in incidents following 9/11, with LICs and MICs showing a more marked increase. Panels show an increase in incidents following 9/11, with LICs and MICs showing a more marked increase. A decline around 1992. A decline around 1992.

11. Location of Casualty Incidents by Income Group

12. Observations For LICs, casualty incidents rose since the start of fundamentalist terrorism in 1979:4 until 1992 when it started to decline. For LICs, casualty incidents rose since the start of fundamentalist terrorism in 1979:4 until 1992 when it started to decline. Upward trend in LICs Upward trend in LICs

13. US Incidents by Income Group

14. Observations LICs generally suffered the largest number of such attacks. There is also a somewhat more pronounced increase in these incidents in LICs after 9/11 compared with other income groups. LICs generally suffered the largest number of such attacks. There is also a somewhat more pronounced increase in these incidents in LICs after 9/11 compared with other income groups.

15. Incident Types by LIC Group

16. Observations Proportion of attacks staged in LICs Proportion of attacks staged in LICs Panels 1-3 a clear upward trend; not true of panel 4 Panels 1-3 a clear upward trend; not true of panel 4 All four proportion series experienced a sharp decline around 1999 and a sharp rise following. All four proportion series experienced a sharp decline around 1999 and a sharp rise following.

17. Income Analysis Results For all incidents, fundamentalism caused a significant increase in transnational terrorism of 27.56 incidents per quarter for LICs, a significant decrease of 4.75 incidents in MICs, and no significant change for HICs. All three income classes experienced a significant decline in transnational terrorism in the post-Cold War period. For all incidents, fundamentalism caused a significant increase in transnational terrorism of 27.56 incidents per quarter for LICs, a significant decrease of 4.75 incidents in MICs, and no significant change for HICs. All three income classes experienced a significant decline in transnational terrorism in the post-Cold War period. No evidence of a substitution in overall transnational terrorism from HICs to LICs following 9/11. Any long-run decline is concentrated in LICs. No evidence of a substitution in overall transnational terrorism from HICs to LICs following 9/11. Any long-run decline is concentrated in LICs. Some substitutions of US-directed attack with casualties to LICs following 9/11. Some substitutions of US-directed attack with casualties to LICs following 9/11. Alternative Scheme based on 31 richest countries. Similar results. Alternative Scheme based on 31 richest countries. Similar results.

18. Incidents by Region

19. Observations Panel 1 and 2 show a sustained decrease in transnational terrorism beginning in the early 1990s for the West Hemisphere and Europe. Panel 1 and 2 show a sustained decrease in transnational terrorism beginning in the early 1990s for the West Hemisphere and Europe. Middle East displays an increase in transnational terrorism for the start of the 1990s followed by a fall around 1993 and then an increase around 9/11. A similar pattern for Asia. Middle East displays an increase in transnational terrorism for the start of the 1990s followed by a fall around 1993 and then an increase around 9/11. A similar pattern for Asia. In panel 5 and 6, there is a jump in transnational terrorism in Africa and Eurasia at the start of the 1990s, followed by decreases and increases over the ensuing years. In panel 5 and 6, there is a jump in transnational terrorism in Africa and Eurasia at the start of the 1990s, followed by decreases and increases over the ensuing years.

20. Casualty Incidents by Region

21. Results Upward trend of casualties in the Middle East Upward trend of casualties in the Middle East Rise of fundamentalist terrorism was associated with a significant increase in terrorism in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, but not in other three regions. Rise of fundamentalist terrorism was associated with a significant increase in terrorism in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, but not in other three regions. Post-Cold War period is associated with less transnational terrorism in the Western Hemisphere, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Post-Cold War period is associated with less transnational terrorism in the Western Hemisphere, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Africa, the Middle East and Asia experienced a significant immediate decline in terrorism following 9/11. Africa, the Middle East and Asia experienced a significant immediate decline in terrorism following 9/11. There is a significant positive increase in the US-target attacks in the Middle East after 9/11. This result is suggestive of a transfer of US-targeted events from North America and neighbor-country venues to targets in the Middle East, in keeping with the terrorists responding to augmentations in US homeland security. There is a significant positive increase in the US-target attacks in the Middle East after 9/11. This result is suggestive of a transfer of US-targeted events from North America and neighbor-country venues to targets in the Middle East, in keeping with the terrorists responding to augmentations in US homeland security.

22. Conclusions While Americans are safer at home owing to enhanced homeland security, the vulnerability of US people and property has increased following 9/11 not only in HICs but also in the Middle East and Asia. While Americans are safer at home owing to enhanced homeland security, the vulnerability of US people and property has increased following 9/11 not only in HICs but also in the Middle East and Asia. US actions to shore up soft targets must also be directed at those HICs where American interests are now at heightened risk. US actions to shore up soft targets must also be directed at those HICs where American interests are now at heightened risk. US policy to assist LICs that request help does not go far enough given the changing post-9/11 pattern of terrorism. US policy to assist LICs that request help does not go far enough given the changing post-9/11 pattern of terrorism. Moreover, alterations in the geographical distribution of terrorist events following 9/11 must be taken into account when allocating assistance. Moreover, alterations in the geographical distribution of terrorist events following 9/11 must be taken into account when allocating assistance.