1. The Social Profile of Rural Britain: Insights from longitudinal datasets Heather Joshi Gareth Hughes & Brian Dodgeon Centre for Longitudinal Studies Institute of Education University of London

2. Longitudinal Datasets Follow the same person through time Follow the same person through time UK has: UK has: British Household Panel Study (BHPS) British Household Panel Study (BHPS) ONS Longitudinal Study (ONS LS) ONS Longitudinal Study (ONS LS) Birth Cohort Studies (NCDS, BCS70, MCS) Birth Cohort Studies (NCDS, BCS70, MCS) …and many others …and many others This presentation uses: This presentation uses: ONS LS ONS LS MCS – most recent Birth Cohort (not yet longitudinal) MCS – most recent Birth Cohort (not yet longitudinal)

3. ONS Longitudinal Study 1% of population of England & Wales 1% of population of England & Wales Linked data from four censuses – 1971, 1981, 1991 & 2001 Linked data from four censuses – 1971, 1981, 1991 & 2001 Linked to vital events (births, deaths etc.) Linked to vital events (births, deaths etc.)

4. Millennium Cohort Study 18,553 families in the UK 18,553 families in the UK 11,533 families in England 2001-2 11,533 families in England 2001-2 Families with 9-month old babies in 398 selected UK wards (of which 92 in Wales) Families with 9-month old babies in 398 selected UK wards (of which 92 in Wales) Oversampling of ethnic minority and high child poverty areas Oversampling of ethnic minority and high child poverty areas Results re-weighted Results re-weighted

5. Urban-Rural Classification / Methodology Classification developed by DEFRA, based on settlement size and proximity to other settlements: Classification developed by DEFRA, based on settlement size and proximity to other settlements: Urban Urban Rural Towns/Fringe: population < 10,000 Rural Towns/Fringe: population < 10,000 Villages (Rural) Villages (Rural) Dispersed (Rural) Dispersed (Rural) Applied to wards (with help of Univ. Sheffield and RERC, Birkbeck College) Applied to wards (with help of Univ. Sheffield and RERC, Birkbeck College) ‘Urban’ includes market towns (population 10-20,000) but these can be analysed separately ‘Urban’ includes market towns (population 10-20,000) but these can be analysed separately Dispersed areas not distinguishable from villages at ward level Dispersed areas not distinguishable from villages at ward level We decided to identify ethnic minority individuals separately within urban areas We decided to identify ethnic minority individuals separately within urban areas

6. England: Rural-Urban classification of wards in 2001 Total England Population UrbanRural Town/ fringe Villages/ dispersed Total 37.87m5.09m3.59m46.5m 81.4%10.9%7.7%100%

7. Wales: Rural-Urban classification of wards in 2001

8. Net Migration – Urban to Rural by decade and 1971-2001 More people have been moving into rural England than have left, except during the 1980s, and at ages around 20 More people have been moving into rural England than have left, except during the 1980s, and at ages around 20 Movements into rural England most likely in mid-life rather than 60+ Movements into rural England most likely in mid-life rather than 60+

9. 1% Census sample Age at the later date 10-1920-2930-3940-4950-5960-6970-7980+Total 1971- 1981 From urban to rural 440644635694294122802145135148223762 From rural to urban 324743833808213316231316106040417974 net1159801886808657829291785788 1981- 1991 From urban to rural 4452466458245453379135112294106831057 From rural to urban 5186796958265494404237182754137136360 net-734-3305-2-41-251-207-460-303-5303 Source: ONS Longitudinal Study: Population enumerated in England at both relevant dates 1% sample of census Gross and net flows between rural and urban England (ONS LS)

10. 1% Census sample Age at the later date 10-1920-2930-3940-4950-5960-6970-7980+Total 1991- 2001 From urban to rural 299222845371379629051846110767320974 From rural to urban 22844949376222391953126996261318031 net708-266516091557952577145602943 1971- 2001 From urban to rural 69767515788548873523190332689 From rural to urban 75596087527138373068171227534 net-5831428261410504551915155 Source: ONS Longitudinal Study: Population enumerated in England at both relevant dates 1% sample of census Gross and net flows between rural and urban England (ONS LS)

11. Net Migration – Urban to Rural by decade and 1971-2001 Source: ONS LS

12. Rural-urban Population Exchange over 30 years Among those present at all four censuses: Among those present at all four censuses: Majority of people who have ever been enumerated in rural areas have also lived in urban areas Majority of people who have ever been enumerated in rural areas have also lived in urban areas Most of those who ‘ever’ lived in urban areas at least once were also enumerated there four times Most of those who ‘ever’ lived in urban areas at least once were also enumerated there four times

13. Rural-urban Population Exchange over 30 years Source: ONS LS

14. Ethnic group by family type and number of parents. (Persons living in families with dependent children, England, 2001 Sector of residence UrbanRuralTotal Ethnic composition % British or Irish White One parent families 82.197.283.9 Two parent families 82.996.785.6 Family structure % of families with one parent 18.811.217.4 Source: ONS Longitudinal Study

15. Millennium Cohort Study

16. Type of ward by rurality and ethnic group within urban/rural England Poor areas least common in rural wards: Poor areas least common in rural wards: Virtually no village/dispersed wards have high child poverty Virtually no village/dispersed wards have high child poverty 19% of sample in small towns live in disadvantaged wards 19% of sample in small towns live in disadvantaged wards 37% of urban British families live in areas of high child poverty 37% of urban British families live in areas of high child poverty Two-thirds of urban families with non-British ethnicity were in areas of high child poverty Two-thirds of urban families with non-British ethnicity were in areas of high child poverty

17. Millennium Cohort Study: England/Wales 2001 comparison by Rural-Urban Definition MCS Variables Village/ Dispersd Rural town/ fringe Urban Urban White Urban non- White Living in disadvantaged area Eng0.919.137.137.335.9 Wales18.430.055.2 Mothers: No qualifications Eng4.76.116.414.027.5 Wales11.814.518.1 Mothers: Graduates Eng42.832.725.925.527.7 Wales17.932.623.0 Fathers: No qualifications Eng98.916.915.523.9 Wales14.315.119.0 Fathers: Graduates Eng41.536.629.828.337.2 Wales33.742.327.5

18. Millennium Cohort Study: England/Wales 2001 comparison by Rural-Urban Definition (cont.) ( MCS Variables Village/ Dispersd Rural town/ fringe Urban Urban White Urban non- White Lone parent Eng6.07.714.714.416.1 Wales8.115.821.9 Mothers aged 21 or less at first birth Eng11.41624.825.222.7 Wales14.722.031.9 Mothers aged 28 or over at first birth Eng58.14837.938.833.7 Wales46.942.330.5 Couples with no earner Eng2.24.27.76.712.6 Wales4.56.810.8 Couples with two earners Eng55.555.951.255.033.7 Wales60.160.955.7 Lone parent earners Eng44.931.822.221.127.1 Wales15.224.220.9

19. Millennium Cohort Study: England/Wales comparison by Rural-Urban Definition (cont.) MCS Variables Village/ Dispersd Rural town/ fringe Urban Urban White Urban non- White No savings Eng28.138.246.346.147.0 Wales38.241.853.3 Housing Tenure: Owner occupier Eng71.573.862.164.750.2 Wales72.271.361.0 Housing Tenure: Social Housing Eng13.311.224.223.129.3 Wales15.218.326.0 Overcrowding Eng45.19.86.624.8 Wales0.20.51.1 No car access Eng3.16.416.614.924.2 Wales6.69.316.5

20. Social Differentials in Migration Some examples: Some examples: Is general low level of lone parenthood in rural areas due to out-migration of lone parent? Is general low level of lone parenthood in rural areas due to out-migration of lone parent? Is high level of graduates in villages due to in- migration? Is high level of graduates in villages due to in- migration?

21. Lone Mothers as various migration flows from ‘villages’ Source: ONS LS Women leaving villages more likely to be lone mothers than those who stay, but less likely than those in towns both dates Women leaving villages more likely to be lone mothers than those who stay, but less likely than those in towns both dates

22. Graduates in migration streams to 2001 since three previous censuses Source: ONS LS Over one quarter migrants since 1971, 1981 or 1991 to villages were graduates. In each case this raises the local average Over one quarter migrants since 1971, 1981 or 1991 to villages were graduates. In each case this raises the local average

23. Housing tenure 2001 by urban- rural status 1991 and 2001 Taking data on 3-fold residence for 1991 & 2001 and housing tenure in 2001: Taking data on 3-fold residence for 1991 & 2001 and housing tenure in 2001: Achievement of owner-occupation is highest for residents of small towns who had been there both times Achievement of owner-occupation is highest for residents of small towns who had been there both times In-movers to villages slightly less likely to be owners than their settled inhabitants In-movers to villages slightly less likely to be owners than their settled inhabitants Social housing most common for urban areas for both censuses Social housing most common for urban areas for both censuses

24. Housing tenure 2001 by urban- rural status 1991 and 2001 Source: MCS

25. Conclusions Rural areas more prosperous than urban England, rural poor exist but are more dispersed Rural areas more prosperous than urban England, rural poor exist but are more dispersed People move from rural to urban areas in youth and move into Rural England in mid-life People move from rural to urban areas in youth and move into Rural England in mid-life Graduates over-represented in the in-flow Graduates over-represented in the in-flow Lone mother families rare in rural areas Lone mother families rare in rural areas Ethnic minorities very rare in rural England Ethnic minorities very rare in rural England Multi-cultural cities increase the differences between rural and urban areas, urban and rural White Brit/Irish not very different, given population exchange Multi-cultural cities increase the differences between rural and urban areas, urban and rural White Brit/Irish not very different, given population exchange

26. Policy implications Dispersed nature of poverty in rural areas means policies targeting concentrated areas of deprivation are not appropriate, but there is some concentration in small towns Dispersed nature of poverty in rural areas means policies targeting concentrated areas of deprivation are not appropriate, but there is some concentration in small towns Ethnic segregation means depriving minority groups of access to rural living and rural groups of benefits of multi- cultural society Ethnic segregation means depriving minority groups of access to rural living and rural groups of benefits of multi- cultural society

27. Websites Centre for Longitudinal Studies http://www.cls.ioe.ac.uk/ Birkbeck College http://www.bbk.ac.uk/ Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs http://www.defra.gov.uk/ ONS http://www.statistics.gov.uk/