1. Constraints and Opportunities for Agricultural Development in Sub-Saharan Africa Sam Goff Friday, May 4

2. Agenda I. The role of agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) II. Challenges and opportunities for growth III. Success stories IV. International community’s role in agricultural development V. Agricultural development in the classroom

3. I. The role of agriculture in Africa The primary source of livelihood for 65% of Africans 70-80% of all Africans- and 90% of the poor- work primarily in agriculture 30-40% of Africa’s GDP; 60% of Africa’s export income Over last 40 years, Africa’s share of world agricultural exports has fallen from 8 to 2%

5. The importance of agriculture Farm production largely determines the prices of basic foodstuffs The poor spend 60- 70% of income on food 75% of Africa’s underweight children live on small farms

6. Food security Food security in Africa has worsened since 1970 The percentage of malnourished has remained in the range of 33-35% since 1970 But due to population growth, the absolute number has increased 1970: 88 million; 2001: over 200 million food insecure persons

8. Food security in comparison to other regions

9. The centrality of agriculture for economic growth in Africa Agricultural development must be centered on the small farmer Improving the agricultural sector is key to solving the problems of hunger and poverty

10. II. Challenges and Opportunities for Growth Limited access to developed country markets Poverty Poor infrastructure Limited irrigation HIV/AIDS Soil infertility Low agricultural research investment Lack of sound governance Difficulties with market liberalization

11. Limited access to developed country markets US, Canada, Europe, and Japan: domestic subsidies, protective tariffs, and other trade barriers harm farmers in Africa and other poor developing countries In developed economies, consumers favor the artificially cheaper products produced by developed countries In developing countries, subsidized imported products also displace the locally produced products from developing countries

12. Limited access to developed country markets US Farm Bill subsidies equal $15-20 b per year, more than the value of Africa’s total annual agricultural exports Without rich country subsidies and tariffs, the current $11 billion food-related exports annually from SSA could grow to $22 billion Reform of developed-country agricultural protectionism may increase market opportunities for African smallholders The Doha Round of trade liberalization is currently stalled

13. Regional trade liberalization Greater intra- and inter-regional trade liberalization is needed By reducing trade barriers in agricultural and nonagricultural sectors, African countries can increase intra-regional agricultural trade by more than 50%

14. Poverty and infrastructure 80% of all Africans live on a daily income of less than $2; nearly half live on $1 or less a day Infrastructure is one of the key inputs to agricultural development in Africa Inadequate physical infrastructure increases costs by 15-25% Much of poor trade performance is accounted for by poor physical infrastructure

16. Limited irrigation Only 1.15% of Africa’s 1.1 billion ha of agricultural area was irrigated in 2000 96% of cereal area relies on rainfall Average irrigation cost in SSA is $46,000/ac; Average irrigation cost in US is $50/ac. High due to limited physical infrastructure

17. HIV/AIDS in SSA SSA: 2/3 of world’s infection but only 1/10 of the world’s population; 1/13 adults carry the virus Great variation across regions  Several West African nations have prevalence rates <1%  In Southern Africa the virus has taken hold More than 1/5 of adult pop. in Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe In 2004, 1/3 of global deaths from AIDS took place in Southern Africa Life expectancy in SSA in 1992: 57 yrs.; in 2003, 40 yrs.

18. HIV/AIDS: Impacts on livelihoods HIV/AIDS attacks primarily young adults; society’s most productive members Households less able to produce or buy food Coping strategies: borrowing and sales of assets Family members stop work to care for those who are ill; children drop out of school Intergenerational impacts

19. HIV/AIDS and gender Women are increasingly vulnerable Globally, girls and women account for ½ In SSA, ¾ of those living with HIV are females between ages of 15 and 24 Women in SSA provide 70-80% of household food production Food production can be reduced by 60% in HIV- infected households when women’s time and energy are diverted to care for family members infected by HIV

21. Interventions for HIV/AIDS mitigation: Investments in Women 9/10 HIV+ people do not know they are infected and lack comprehensive knowledge of HIV transmission Education of women linked to lowering fertility rates, raising productivity, and improving environmental management IFPRI study: Farms run by women have lower yields than those run by men; when women receive same levels of education, experience, and farm inputs as men, productivity is comparable When mothers’ education levels raised to at least the completion of primary school, household poverty was reduced by 34%

22. Soil Infertility SSA soil quality is classified as degraded on 72% of arable land and 31% of pastureland Causes  Nutrient mining,  Declining use and length of fallow periods,  Expansion of agricultural production on marginal lands  Limited adoption of Inorganic or organic fertilizer, Soil and water conservation measures

23. Approaches to mitigate soil infertility Organic farming High external input sustainable agriculture Low external input sustainable agriculture Integrated soil fertility management A pragmatic approach is needed

24. Are fertilizer subsidies the answer? May be appropriate to subsidize fertilizers in the short run in some countries BUT must be supplemented by government investments in infrastructure, institutions, and policies that permanently reduce farm level prices

25. Low agricultural research investment From 1976-1996, public agricultural investment was 1/3 the rate of other developing countries as a whole Private sector accounted for only 2% of total agricultural research spending (US: 50%) Agricultural biotechnology (GMOs) holds high potential In 2003, NEPAD adopted the Comprehensive Africa Agricultural Development Programme (CAADP)  At least 10% of national budgets toward agricultural development

26. III. Success Stories: Southern Africa South African supermarket chains are beginning to buy produce from African countries rather than importing it from overseas South Africa: smallholders adopting Bt cotton Zambia: from ‘95-’02, cotton production has increased 5x Zambia and Malawi, smallholders have doubled cash returns from improved varieties of cassava Mozambique: in last decade, agricultural growth has remained steady at 9-13% annually

27. Success Stories: West Africa Cross-breeding high-yielding Asian rice varieties with drought- and disease-resistant African varieties resulted in New Rice for Africa (NERICA) West Africa could save $88 million in rice imports Increased intraregional trade and diversification through ECOWAS  75 nontraditional agricultural products exported

28. Success Stories: East Africa Ugandan gov’t initiatives under the Plan for the Modernization of Agriculture: distributing tea plantlets to households, cotton seeds to ginners, stocking lakes with fish COMESA: Free-trade area Kenya: In 2003, smallholders produced about $46 m of the $147 income from horticultural exports Kenya: Smallholders produce 80% of country’s milk

29. IV. International community’s role Although overall international assistance to Africa has increased, assistance to African agriculture has fallen

30. Sustaining International Support for Agricultural Development Africa’s agricultural sector needs greater access to international markets US’ AGOA: less than 10% are agricultural products

31. V. Agricultural development in the classroom The Green Revolution http://www.fao.org/es/ess/faostat/foodsecurity/FSMa p/flash_map.htm http://www.fao.org/es/ess/faostat/foodsecurity/FSMa p/flash_map.htm Increase students’ awareness of global poverty Miniature Earth: If the world’s population were reduced to 100 people, what would it look like? (http://www.miniature-earth.com/)http://www.miniature-earth.com/ You prepare the next generation of scientists, educators, economists, and others who have the potential to change our world

32. References Resnick, D. (2004). Smallholder African Agriculture: Progress and Problems in Confronting Hunger and Poverty. Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute.*** Rosegrant, M. (2005). Looking Ahead: Long-term Prospects for Africa’s Agricultural Development and Food Security. Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute.*** Haggblade, S. (2004). Building on Successes in African Agriculture. Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute.*** Gollehan, N. Irrigation Resources and Water Costs. http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/arei/eib16/eib16_2-1.pdf ***extensive verbatim reproduction