1. Long-term changes in Mediterranean vegetation in Israel and California Yohay Carmel Faculty of Agricultural Engineering The Technion -- Israel Institute of Technology The Technion -- Israel Institute of Technology

2. Curtis Flather Curtis Flather, Rocky Mountain Research Center, USDA Forest Service Denis Dean Denis Dean, Department of Forest Sciences, Colorado State University Ronen Kadmon Ronen Kadmon, Department of Ecology, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem A Cooperative Research: The Israel Forest Authority (KKL) USDA Forest Service International Programs

3. Adult oaks (Quercus calliprinos) in Mt. Meron

4. Herbaceous vegetation in the front, recovering trees in the back, Mt. Meron

5. Earlier stages of recovery following land abandonment: dwarf shrubs, tall shrubs, and low trees in Mt. Meron

6. 30 years after abandonment of pastoral cultivation in Mt. Meron

7. Mt. Meron 1945

8. Mt. Meron 1964

9. Mt. Meron 1992

11. Vegetation maps of Mt. Meron, Israel Trees Shrubs Herbaceous Vegetation

12. Factors that potentially affect current vegetation pattern Past vegetation: Percentage cover of Trees, Shrubs, Herbaceous vegetation Disturbance Agents : Grazing Logging Fire Topography: Slope Aspect Elevation Soil

13. Map of the study area in Mt. Meron, showing the distinct plots of different grazing pressure, and the range of fire

14. Change in Trees as a function of Grazing Pressure Change in tree cover ± SE

15. Regression results for the linear models 1 NS - not significant * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001

16. Regression results for the linear models 2 NS - not significant * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001

17. Weight of predictors in affecting vegetation change in Mt. Meron

18. Model input (1964 vegetation) Actual 1992 vegetation Predicted 1992 vegetation (Linear model)

19. MODELS AND REALIZATIONS DETERMINISTIC REALIZATION STOCHASTIC REALIZATION WITH AUTOCOVARIATES NO AUTOCOVARIATES COMPLETE DATASET SAMPLE DATASET LOGISTIC MODEL LINEAR MODEL

20. Deterministic Realization Stochastic Realization ? ? ? !

21. StochasticrealizationDeterministicrealization

22. Actual and predicted proportions of 1992 vegetation

23. Matching the actual map on a cell by cell basis

24. Grazing intensities do not change do not change Grazing is excluded Scenarios for 2020

25. Mediterranean type ecosystems

26. Guess if this photo was taken in Israel or in California

27. Oak woodland, chaparral, and grasses, in Carmel Valley, California

30. Precipitation patterns in California and Israel

31. Best match Worst match Precipitation match with Mt. Meron on a monthly basis 1. Cuyamaca mountains 2. Santa Ynez Mountains 4. Sequoia National Forest 5. Sierra Foothills Research Center 6. Hastings Natural History Reservation 8. South Cow Mountain

32. Hastings Nature Reserve, Carmel Valley, California

33. A small part of 1939 photo Trees ChaparralGrassland

34. Same area in 1956

35. Same area in 1971

36. Same area in 1995

37. Vegetation maps of Hastings, California

38. Vegetation maps of Mt. Meron, Israel Trees Shrubs Herbaceous Vegetation

39. Change in tree cover in Meron and Hastings

40. Weight of predictors in affecting vegetation change

41. Mediterranean vegetation change in long-term, landscape-scale studies Average annual change

42. Why is there such a difference between vegetation dynamics in California and the Mediterranean basin? 1. Local ecological and anthropogenic conditions 2. Different soils Different evolutionary history 3. Different evolutionary history

43. A transplant experiment is currently conducted, where oaks from both countries are grown together in both sites, in a controlled environment

44. Carmel, Y. and Flather, C.H. 2004. Comparing landscape scale vegetation dynamics following recent disturbance in climatically similar sites in California and the Mediterranean basin. Landscape Ecology 19:573-590. Carmel, Y., Kadmon R. and Nirel, R. 2001. Spatio-temporal predictive models of Mediterranean vegetation dynamics. Ecological Applications, 11 (1):268-280. Carmel, Y. and Kadmon, R. 1999. Grazing, topography, and long term vegetation changes in a Mediterranean ecosystem. Plant Ecology, 145:239-250. Carmel, Y. and Kadmon, R. 1998. Computerized classification of Mediterranean vegetation using panchromatic aerial photographs. Journal of Vegetation Science, 9:445-454. Grunzweig, J.M., Carmel, Y., Riov, J. and Flather, C.H. Resource storage and adaptation to drought in oak seedlings: a comparative study with Californian and Mediterranean species. Submitted to Ecology. More information on the various topics discussed here can be found in: