1. Historical Perspectives on Climate Change James Rodger Fleming STS Program, Colby College Some highlights

2. HOW ARE PRIVILEGED POSITIONS ESTABLISHED? Authority / Prestige Data Experiment / Theory  Models Authority / Prestige Data Experiment / Theory  Models

3. Svante Arrhenius Philosophical Magazine, 1896 Model of CO 2 controlling ice ages and interglacials. Geometric decline in CO 2 causes a linear decrease in temperature. Industrial emissions not yet of concern to him. His climate model is often cited, but it is not continuous with modern results or concerns.

5. Eclipse of the CO2 theory of climate change. 1900-1950

6. Guy Stewart Callendar The Callendar Effect -- Climatic change brought about by anthropogenic increases in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, primarily through the processes of combustion. AGW in 1938! Rising temperatures Rising fossil fuel consumption Rising CO 2 concentrations Detailed understanding of IR

7. Rising temperatures ca. 1858-1939

8. Rising CO 2 Levels (1958)

9. IR Spectrum (1941)

10. HOW ARE PRIVILEGED POSITIONS ESTABLISHED? Authority / Prestige Data Experiment / Theory Models  Technology Authority / Prestige Data Experiment / Theory Models  Technology

12. Bumper V-2 Cape Canaveral 24 July 1950

14. HOW ARE PRIVILEGED POSITIONS ESTABLISHED? Authority / Prestige Data Experiment / Theory Models Technology  Consensus Authority / Prestige Data Experiment / Theory Models Technology  Consensus

15. Roger Revelle Report of The Environmental Pollution Panel, President’s Science Advisory Committee, 1965 – Appendix Y. By the year 2000 there will be about 25% more CO 2 in our atmosphere than at present. This will modify the heat balance of the atmosphere to such an extent that marked changes in climate, not controllable through local or even national efforts, could occur.

16. Jule Charney National Academy of Sciences, Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment (1979) The consensus has been that increasing carbon dioxide will lead to a warmer earth with a different distribution of climatic regimes. Doubling CO 2 in models results in 1.5 to 4.5 C warming. Positive feedbacks will increase the warming.

17. Establishing the IPCC 1979 First World Climate Conference, WMO. 1985 Assessment of the Role of Carbon Dioxide and of Other Greenhouse Gases in Climate Variations and Associated Impacts (UNEP, WMO, ICSU). 1988 IPCC established by WMO and UNEP.

18. Original IPCC Charge (1988) 1.Science of climate and climatic change 2.Social and economic impacts 3.Possible response strategies 4.International legal instruments 5.International convention on climate

19. If our understanding of climate is based on authority, prestige, data, experiments, theory, modeling, technology, and consensus…

20. WHAT DO WE KNOW? WHAT DO WE FEAR? WHAT SHOULD WE DO? —Immanuel Kant, Critique of Pure Reason

21. WHAT ROLE FOR HISTORY?

22. Students of climate dynamics would be well-served to study science dynamics (history). History matters – it shapes identity and behavior; it is not just a celebratory record of inevitable progress. Our species emerged during an ice age. All of history has occurred in an interglacial era. In facing unprecedented challenges, it is good to seek historical precedents.