1. Population Modelling in the London Thames Gateway - a new approach for small area geographies Professor Allan J. Brimicombe BA(Hons) M.Phil. Ph.D. C.Geog. FRGS FGS Centre for Geo-Information Studies University of East London, UK a.j.brimicombe@uel.ac.uk http://www.uel.ac.uk/geo-information

2. The study area Project EASY London Thames Gateway Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA)

3. ONS small area population estimates Project EASY Mid-year estimates at Local Authority and LSOA For LSOA estimates, data sets used are: NHS patient register Child benefit Older persons dataset Special populations: 1.Prisoners 2.UK armed forces 3.Foreign armed forces and dependents Constrained to Local Authority MYE The first three data sets are used to calculate change ratios for quinary are groups and gender which are then applied to the previous year’s estimate. Key assumption is that the relationship between these data sets and the true population remains the same for all years at small area geographies.

4. GLA 2007 round demographic projections Project EASY Mid-year estimates at Local Authority and Ward Change analysis 2001-2006 based on ONS MYE Future fertility rates and gender/age-specific survival rates based on ONS 2006 MYE Main determinant of population distribution is the 2004 London Housing Capacity Study and DCLG 2004-based household projections Inputs are: Base population Fertility Mortality/survival 2001-02 migration matrix 2001 migration flow age structures 2002-03, 2005-06, 2006-07 gross inflows and net flows Development data 2004 household representative rates

5. nowfuture -2-3 ONS Borough Ward LSOA UEL models ONS UEL models GLA ONS 2001 Census GLA Locally accessible data sets Up-to-the-moment estimates Small geographical areas (LSOA) Can be carried out locally by analysts Good quality data Social Infrastructure Planning Local Authorities & PCTs Community Infrastructure Levy £ Population estimates and projections Project EASY

6. Modelling total Council Tax properties (2001 census) Project EASY

7. Key variables Project EASY LSOALA_NAMELAWARDXYHect E01000006Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFX54499418436314.653 E01000007Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFX54417918445520.009 E01000008Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFX54365418440119.506 E01000009Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFX54458718443712.796 E01000010Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFX54424418401835.207 E01000011Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFX5444271847349.164 E01000012Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFX54390718471413.905 E01000013Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFY54895618494320.783 E01000014Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFY54851018492234.123 E01000015Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFY54958618510228.063 E01000016Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFY54911718549619.878 E01000017Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFY54892518547915.837 E01000018Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFY54937218525917.399 E01000019Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFZ54710218647818.387 E01000020Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFZ54740018624018.724 E01000021Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFZ54683018603416.936 Count of properties by Council Tax bands Multiple Home Occupancy Child Benefit Schools Census (PLASC)

8. Occupied Households Child Benefit Records Dwelling Counts by Council Tax Band Households without Dependent Children Families with Dependent Children Population in Households without Dependent Children Population in Families with Dependent Children Total Estimated Population Houses with Multiple Occupancy School Census Separate model for each Borough Project EASY Structure of the models

9. Variables by Borough Project EASY So, what are the results....... Once built, the relationships are assumed to broadly remain between censuses and by plugging in the variables for each subsequent year, the population can be estimated at LSOA....even up-to-the-moment.

10. Comparing at 2001 Project EASY

11. Comparing at 2005 Project EASY

12. Waltham Forest Project EASY

13. Havering Project EASY

14. Redbridge Project EASY

15. Greenwich Project EASY

16. Hackney Project EASY

17. Change 2001-2006 Project EASY

18. Next steps Project EASY nowfuture -2-3 LSOA EASY 2001 Census Social Infrastructure Planning Local Authorities & PCTs Community Infrastructure Levy £ (age structure) Tools