1. INTERRUPTED JOURNEYS Routes toward Democracy in Latin America Peter H. Smith Matthew C. Kearney

2. FOCUS AND FORMAT  Focus: not just on transitions from authoritarianism, but on transitions toward democracy  Format: A typology of political regimes Transitions: overview Characteristics: frequency and durability Empirical pathways Discussion

3. 1. Mapping Regimes (Political Cartography)

4. Elections and Rights: A Regime Typology _____________ Character of Elections _____________  Citizen Rights __ __None__ __Free not Fair__ __Free and Fair__   Minimal Hard-Line Repressive Dictadura Semidemocracy   Limited Moderate Illiberal/ Restrictive Illiberal  Dictablanda Semidemocracy Democracy  Expansive Liberal/Permissive Liberal  Semidemocracy Democracy

5. 5 Terminology…  Any change from one cell to another = “move” (or “transition”?)  Movement across electoral systems = “change of regime”  Movement within electoral systems = “change within regime” or modification of regime  Democratization = sequence eventuating in political democracy

6. Coding Criteria  Elections: Personal evaluation  Rights: Freedom House scores on “civil liberties” (1-2, 3-4, 5+)  Mexico as example: 1978-87: Moderate nondemocracy 1988-99: Illiberal semidemocracy 2000-01: Illiberal democracy 2002-05: Liberal democracy 2006-08: Illiberal democracy

7. 2. Detecting Transitions (Aerial Photography)

8. Elections and Democracy

9. Distinguishing Democracies

10. 3. Identifying Characteristics (Regime Anatomy)

11. Table 2. Frequency of Regimes (country-years)  _%_ Hard-Line Nondemocracy 11.4 Moderate Nondemocracy 7.6 Repressive Semidemocracy 3.9 Illiberal Semidemocracy 12.7 Liberal Semidemocracy 1.0 Illiberal Democracy 40.1 Liberal Democracy 23.3

12. Figure 3. Durability

13. Table 3. Stability and Instability  (a) (b) (c) (d)  Country-years ExitsInstability Stability  _____ N ____ _ n _ _ (b/a) _(1 – b/a)  Nondemocracy:   Hard-Line 67 16.239.761  Moderate 45 18.400.600  Semidemocracy:  Repressive 23 7.304.696  Illiberal 75 14.187.813  Liberal 6 3.500.500  Democracy:  Illiberal 236 14.059.941  Liberal 137 8.058.942

14. 4. Tracing Pathways (Terrestrial Observation )

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16. 16 Interpreting the Data .033 = minimal criterion for inclusion = 1 transition every 30 country-years .050 = 1 transition every 20 country- years .010 = 1 transition every 10 country- years

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18. 18 Table 4. Routes toward Liberal Democracy  a. Direct from Nondemocracy:  Ecuador  Uruguay  b. Via Illiberal Democracy:  Argentina (1978-1989)  Chile  c. Via Semidemocracy & Illiberal Democracy:  Brazil  Mexico (1978-2005)  Panama (1986-2008)

19. 19 Table 5. Routes toward Illiberal Democracy  a. Direct from Nondemocracy:  Bolivia  Ecuador (2000-2008)  Haiti (1978-1990) Peru (1978- 1991)  b. Via Semidemocracy:  El Salvador  Guatemala  Honduras  Nicaragua  Paraguay  Peru (1992-2008)

20. Discussion  Complexity of stepwise transitions  Authoritarian bargains and pacts  Stopping points  Illiberal democracy > Semidemocracy  Conditions of illiberal-to-liberal transitions  Reservoirs of collective memory  Predictability and confidence-building