2. Improving Human Health Risk Assessment Spatial Data Analysis and Prediction/Threshold Mapping

3. Scope of Research Risk Assessment Risk Assessment Human Health and Ecological Human Health and Ecological Complex Mixtures Complex Mixtures Specific Areas of Research Efforts Specific Areas of Research Efforts Toxicity Assessment Toxicity Assessment Mixture Component Interactions Mixture Component Interactions Exposure Modeling Exposure Modeling Exposure Scenarios Exposure Scenarios Sampling GIS can provide solutions Sampling GIS can provide solutions

4. Risk Assessment Paradigm Data Collection/Evaluation Exposure Assessment Toxicity Assessment Risk Characterization Risk Communication Management

5. Azerbaijan

6. Site History Site History Former industrial center for the Soviet Union. Former industrial center for the Soviet Union. Total Area: 86,600 sq km Total Area: 86,600 sq km Natural Resources include: Natural Resources include: Petroleum Petroleum Natural gas Natural gas Iron ore Iron ore Non-ferrous metals Non-ferrous metals Alumina Alumina The Apsheron Peninsula and the Caspian sea are considered to be one of the most ecologically devastated areas in the world. The Apsheron Peninsula and the Caspian sea are considered to be one of the most ecologically devastated areas in the world.

10. Project Objectives Incorporate measured concentration points from previous sampling trips to Azerbaijan into a model to predict the concentration for other unmeasured points Incorporate measured concentration points from previous sampling trips to Azerbaijan into a model to predict the concentration for other unmeasured points Generate the probability of exceeding an acceptable risk level given a threshold concentration Generate the probability of exceeding an acceptable risk level given a threshold concentration Threshold concentration is a risk-based concentration that yields an unacceptable risk Threshold concentration is a risk-based concentration that yields an unacceptable risk

11. Preliminary Data and Procedures Preliminary Data Preliminary Data Sampling Location (GPS) Sampling Location (GPS) PAH and Mercury Concentrations PAH and Mercury Concentrations Military / Historical Map Military / Historical Map Procedures Procedures Georeferencing Georeferencing Base Coordinates / Control Points and Rectify Base Coordinates / Control Points and Rectify Geostatistical Analysis Geostatistical Analysis Estimate Concentrations – Prediction Mapping Estimate Concentrations – Prediction Mapping Calculate Risk based on Predicted Concentrations Calculate Risk based on Predicted Concentrations Threshold Mapping Threshold Mapping What is the probability that the risk will exceed regulatory standards? What is the probability that the risk will exceed regulatory standards?

12. Geostatistical Analysis - Kriging Kriging is a moderately quick interpolator to predict a probabilistic value of data points on a surface using spatial autocorrelation. Kriging is a moderately quick interpolator to predict a probabilistic value of data points on a surface using spatial autocorrelation. S1 S2 S5 S4 S3 S6 S7 S0 Autocorrelation Distance Correlation Z (s) =  s) +  s)

13. Concentration Prediction Mapping - Mercury

14. Concentration Prediction Mapping - PAHs

15. Threshold Mapping - Mercury

16. Threshold Mapping - PAHs

17. Conclusions / Future Research Conclusions GIS can be a useful tool to help curve the enormous cost and time associated with traditional sampling procedures. GIS can be a useful tool to help curve the enormous cost and time associated with traditional sampling procedures. Threshold mapping through GIS gives a framework to analyze risk associated with a given exposure. Threshold mapping through GIS gives a framework to analyze risk associated with a given exposure. At the very least, these predictions can be used to modify future sampling regimes and procedures. At the very least, these predictions can be used to modify future sampling regimes and procedures. Future Research Include Blood, Urine, Hair and Nail Sample Concentrations Include Blood, Urine, Hair and Nail Sample Concentrations Look at relationships between environmental concentrations and population samples Look at relationships between environmental concentrations and population samples