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Web-Based Program of Research on Risky Decision Making Michael H. Birnbaum California State University, Fullerton.

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Presentation on theme: "Web-Based Program of Research on Risky Decision Making Michael H. Birnbaum California State University, Fullerton."— Presentation transcript:

1 Web-Based Program of Research on Risky Decision Making Michael H. Birnbaum California State University, Fullerton

2 Case Against Prospect Theory Violations of Stochastic Dominance Violations of Coalescing (Event-Splitting) Violations of Upper Tail Independence Violations of Lower Cumulative Independence Violations of Upper Cumulative Independence

3 Recipe: Violations of Stochastic Dominance

4 Which gamble would you prefer to play? Gamble AGamble B 90 reds to win $96 05 blues to win $14 05 whites to win $12 85 reds to win $96 05 blues to win $90 10 whites to win $12 70% of undergrads choose B

5 Which of these gambles would you prefer to play? Gamble CGamble D 85 reds to win $96 05 greens to win $96 05 blues to win $14 05 whites to win $12 85 reds to win $96 05 greens to win $90 05 blues to win $12 05 whites to win $12 90% choose C over D

6 Case Against Prospect Theory-2 Violations of Restricted Branch Independence are opposite predictions of inverse-S weighting function needed to explain the Allais Paradoxes Violations of 3- and 4-Distribution Independence are opposite the patterns predicted by the inverse-S weighting function.

7 Decision Theories and Allais Paradox Branch Independence CoalescingSatisfiedViolated SatisfiedEU, CPT* OPT* RDU, CPT* ViolatedOPT*RAM, TAX

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