1. Introduction Integrated Assessment Conceptual Models

2. Conceptual approach to assessment Integrated assessment of regional climate impacts: The study of how climate, natural resources, and human socio- economic systems affect each other

3. What is IA?... an interdisciplinary process of combining, interpreting, and communicating knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines in such a way that the whole cause-effect chain of a problem can be evaluated from a synoptic perspective with two characteristics: (1) (1) it should have added value compared to a single disciplinary oriented assessment; (2) (2) it should provide useful information to decision makers. (Rotmans and Dowlatabadi 1998)

4. Characteristics of CIG’s IA spatial interdisciplinary vertical temporal intermural horizontal Requires research and synthesis. Papers on approaches to integrated assessment: Snover et al. 2003; Gamble et al. 2003; Rhythms of Change – Chs. 2 & 10.

5. Climate dynamics Impacts on natural systems Impacts on human systems Human response capabilities Vertical Integration

6. Methods: Integrated Research naturalsystem 1. Understand the natural system predictability, uncertainty managed system 2. Understand the managed system the nature and consequences of human choices and activities institutional context 3. Understand the institutional context of these systems processes, laws, constraints, decision calendars stakeholders 1-3. Work with regional stakeholders First vertical, then horizontal assessment

7. Climate dynamics Impacts on natural systems Impacts on human systems Human response capabilities Examples (for one sector) El Niño, or drought Reduced snowpack, low streamflow, few fish, severe erosion, many forest fires Water “crisis,” crop failures, lousy fishing, property damage, loss of timber Lawsuits, water markets, government bailouts, infrastruture projects, new legislation

8. Tools for Characterizing the Natural/Managed System Models – process-based, quantitative – empirical – conceptual

9. The Institutional Context Institutions: formalized actions underlying human social activity, including standards of behavior, formal decision rules and decision- making procedures, and grants of authority to prescribe policy. The institutional context creates the “rules” that shape social practices relevant to the system under examination.

10. Tools for characterizing the institutional context Mapping institutional frameworks Identify players Characterize laws, treaties, rules and constraints Determine interactions Analyze individual institutions Methods: interviews, institutional analysis Pulwarty & Redmond 1997

11. Example: Columbia basin operating periods Tools for characterizing the institutional context Eliciting decision calendars When/how are decisions made? Where is climate information relevant to decisions? Method = interviews, analysis of decision processes 1. Fixed period (Aug-Dec) Assume the worst about spring inflow 2. Variable period (Jan-Jul) Use snowpack measurements to estimate spring inflow

12. Tools for characterizing the institutional context Involving stakeholders –A salient assessment requires active two- way communication –Human dimensions research relies on stakeholders’ knowledge –Provides a means of disseminating results Putting in Practice: water workshops interviews general outreach policy-maker workshops

13. e.g., Miles et al. 2000

14. ENSOPDO Streamflow Snow Coho Mote et al. 2003 Horizontal Assessment Compare results across sectors  Synthesize results across region  Potential Impacts of Climate Change

15. Horizontal Assessment More Difficult: weave the vertical assessments together into a fully integrated horizontal assessment forests and hydrology -> forest hydrology forests, hydrology, salmon, coastal erosion -> integrated coastal watershed management return to the core questions of sensitivity, adaptability & vulnerability

16. Goals and methods Overarching Goal: to understand and evaluate the role of climate in our lives Answer the questions of sensitivity/vulnerability/adaptability using this model as our guide Need to go beyond traditional reductionist approaches

17. Using the Kaje method for conceptual mapping