1. Offshore China Over Japan Slope (> 840 mb) = 51 R 2 = 0.76 Slope (> 840 mb) = 22 R 2 = 0.45 Suntharalingam et al, 2004 REGIONAL [CO 2 ]:[CO] CORRELATIONS PROVIDE UNIQUE INFORMATION ON SOURCE REGION AND TYPE *Regional CO:CO 2 reflect source mix and variation in FF combustion ratio * How can we exploit CO:CO 2 correlations to improve emission estimates? A priori bottom-up Top-down information CO CO 2

2. Observation vector y State vector (Emissions x) Consistent CO and CO 2 Emissions Modeling Approach Inverse model x = Fluxes of CO and CO 2 from Asia (Tg C/yr) y = TRACE-P CO and CO 2 concentration data x = x a + (K T S y -1 K + S a -1 ) -1 K T S y -1 (y – Kx a ) ^ Forward model (GEOS-CHEM) y = Kx a +  Jacobian describes CTM

3. 0-2 km Latitude [deg] CO [ppb] CO 2 [ppm] 4-6 km 2-4 km GEOS-CHEM TRACE-P Data Remove CO 2 bias using 10 th percentile of [CO 2 ]: 4-4.5 ppm GEOS-CHEM Performance

4. S y * Measurement accuracy *Representation *Model error (most important) GEOS-CHEM Error specification for CO and CO 2 S a Anthropogenic (c/o Streets) Biomass burning: 50% 30% Chemistry (~CH 4 ): 25% Biosphere: 75% (measured-GEOS-CHEM) /measured All latitudes Altitude [km] Mean bias RRE CO (y*RRE) 2 ~38ppb (CO) ~1.87ppm (CO 2 ) RRE = total observation error GEOS-CHEM 2x2.5  cell TRACE-P

5. CO 2 emissions [Tg March 2001] Biospheric CO 2  1 ~ K Results consistent with CO inverse modeling and [CO 2 ]:[CO] analysis CO emissions [Tg yr -1 ] Anthropogenic CO 2 CO 2 emissions [Tg yr -1 ] Anthropogenic CO A priori A posteriori Uncorrelated inversion of CO and CO 2 emissions

6. E = A F Origin of CO:CO 2 Correlations Activity Rate (Tg fuel yr -1 ) (amount of fuel burned) Emissions (Tg C yr -1 ) Emission Factor (TgC / Tg fuel) Colocated Emissions Atm. Dyn. Processes Coal-burning cook stoves in Xian, China cold air warm air E.g., frontal system Compute [CO]:[CO 2 ] correlations from TRACE-P SaSa SySy

7. Modeling CO and CO 2 emission correlations E CO =  (A +  A  A) (F CO +  CO  F CO ) E CO2 =  (A +  A  A) (F CO2 +  CO2  F CO2 ) N N A posteriori certainty relative to uncorrelated inversion [%] CHINA China + Taiwan 1 0.1 1 Frac.  F CO Frac.  A 00.51-0.5 CO:CO 2 correlation China