1. Investment tactics Hung Pui Ki, Majesty 2008078285

2. Investment Objective 1.Not to lose 2.Expected annual return at least 10%, can even as high as 50%

3. Economic cycle

4. About 5 years About a year About 3 years

5. Economic cycle vs long term HSI(70s) = 100 HSI(2010) = 20000

6. Performance of HSI Buy at 14000 Sell at 22000 Annual gain >50%

7. Tactics 1.Not to buy at the lowest (but to sell at low) 2.Not to sell at the highest (but to sell at high) => Make sure you are to win

8. Target price 1.Buy the HSI at 20000 2.Sell the HSI at 30000 Questions: 1.Do you believe that the HSI will finally be back to 30000? 2.Then, do we stand any chance to lose?

9. Return Average time to be back to 30000 = 2 yrs Max. time taken to be back to 30000 ≈ 5yrs Average capital gain: Time = 2 yrs, Buy at 20000, Sell at 30000 Annual return = 20% Min. capital gain: Time = 5 yrs, Buy at 20000, Sell at 30000 Annual return = 8% Risk Free return ≈ 2%

10. Investment Objective 1.Not to lose 2.Expected annual return at least 10%, can even as high as 50%