1. SERCC and DROUGHT Peter J Robinson NOAA Southeast Regional Climate Center University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill

2. SERCC Drought Activities Drought Monitoring –Mainly synthesis and coordination Drought Definition –Long-term planning Drought Impacts –Mainly Health-Related

3. Drought Monitoring Home page screen shot

4. Collaborations for Monitoring SERCC Monthly climate synthesis report to NOAA Response to regional drought questions Strong SC programs in region –Active before SERCC established at UNC SECC –Agriculture/water concerns central Carolina’s RISA –Tool development & evaluation

5. Drought Definition & Impacts What is “drought” in a changing climate? Multiple Definitions –CGEO-USGEO Bilateral Coordination Drought Definition and Indices Study Multiple Impacts –Urban Planning –Public Health

6. Drought: Climatological View

7. Western NC Precipitation Trends

8. Asheville Stream-gauge record

9. Future Conditions? Projected changes in annual runoff (hatching = confidence; blank = no confidence) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, 2009: p. 45

10. NC Climate Divisions: PDSI < 3

11. Changing Climate – and Perceptions? Current : Wet Climate – Drought Events Future?: Dry Climate – Wet Spells

12. Future southern Appalachians?

13. Appropriate preparation needed!

14. Drought Impacts: Urban Planning Energy efficient Drought resistant Flood proof Old styles? New knowledge? Individual/collective designs

15. Alternative energy  Urban Design

16. Good Design  Water Problems

17. Good Design: Climate Sensitive

18. Drought Impacts: Public Health (1) Water Related: Quantity: nutrition, hygiene, recreation physical & mental stress Quality: water borne diseases toxin & pathogen concentrations

19. Drought Impacts: Public Health (2) Atmosphere Related Composition – Dry conditions Dust, aerosols, particulate matter (PM) – Fires Smoke, haze, irritant gases Respiratory Ailments Temperature – Heat stress Building design, energy needs

20. Climate - Health Links Linked concepts well established –Much medical/health research –Much weather/climate research Little Research/Application level linking SERCC as NOAA focal point NCDC-SERCC-CDC-EPA-NIEHS workshop

21. Conclusions SERCC not heavily involved in monitoring –Thanks to SCs and others in region Time to consider long-term implications –Focus on planning/health & drought – not exclusive Drought as current “climate focus” –Place in context of whole climate change/variability concern