1. VF Trends1 TRENDS IN FAMILY VIOLENCE ARE CHILD ABUSE AND PARTNER ABUSE INCREASING? WHAT EXPLAINS THE TRENDS? WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIVIDUALS AND FOR SOCIETY?

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3. 3 REPORTED AND CONFIRMED CASES OF CHILD ABUSE, IRELAND 1984-1997

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10. 10 VIOLENCE AGAINST PARTNERS

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14. VF Trends14 PARTNER VIOLENCE BY MEN HAS DECLINED, BUT WITH AN IMPORTANT EXCEPTION, NOT BY WOMEN National Family Violence Surveys (Straus and Gelles 1990b) show a decrease in public acceptance of men slapping their wives (Figure 1) and a decrease in the rate of severe assaults on women by male partners (Figure 2). The National Crime Victimization Surveys a similar pattern of decline in rates of IPV (Figure 3). Uniform Crime Reports (FBI) Homicide of intimate partners has also decreased (Figure 4). Prevention steps probably had a substantial cumulative effect. However, no direct evidence

15. VF Trends15 SEXUAL ABUSE OF CHILDREN

16. VF Trends16 Finkelhor & Jones, 1992

17. VF Trends17 Finkelhor & Jones, 1992

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19. VF Trends19 TRENDS IN CHILD SEXUAL ABUSE 39% DECREASE IN THE USA IN THE 1990s 150,000 in 1992 to 92,000 in 1999 (Jones, Finkelhor, & Kopiec, 2001) SIMILAR DECREASES IN OTHER COUNTRIES Canada Great Britain Sweden Australia New Zealand Spain Israel ALL ABOVE ARE ADMINISTRATIVE DATA Example reports to USA state Child Protective Services COULD REFLECT CHANGE IN PUBLIC WILLINGNESS TO REPORT OR AGENCY WILLINGNESS TO CONFIRM NEED FOR INDEPENDENT DATA FROM EPIDEMIOLOGICAL SURVEYS

20. VF Trends20 RATES STILL EXTREMELY HIGH (Annual Prevalence ) PHYSICALLY ABUSED CHILDREN Cases known to State Agencies: 500,000 per yr Cases uncovered in NFVS surveys: 1,500,000 per yr PHYSICALLY ABUSED WOMEN Cases reported in NVAW surveys: 1,300,000 Cases reported in NFVA surveys: 6.000,000

21. VF Trends21 WHAT EXPLAINS THE DECREASE? NINE OF THE MANY PROCESSES

22. VF Trends22 REASON #1: THE CIVILIZATION EFFECT (N. Elias)

23. VF Trends23 REASON #2: PROGRAMS TO END CHILD ABUSE AND WIFE BEATING. THE TYPES OF FAMILY VIOLENCE THAT HAVE BEEN THE FOCUS OF PREVENTION EFFORTS DECREASED THE MOST

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25. VF Trends25 REASON 3: CULTURAL NORMS TOLERATING PARTNER ASSAULT HAVE CHANGED

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27. VF Trends27 REASON #4 GREATER EQUALITY BETWEEN MEN AND WOMEN

28. VF Trends28 REASON #5 OTHER CHANGES IN FAMILY COMPOSITION AND ORGANIZATION LATER AGE AT MARRIAGE LATER AGE AT FIRST CHILD (FOR PEOPLE MARRING AT THE SAME AGE) FEWER CHILDREN GREATER ACCEPTABILITY OF DIVORCE

29. VF Trends29 PROBABILITY OF ASSAULTING A PARTNER BY PERCEIVED PROBABILITY OF BEING ARRESTED (Ramirez, 2003) REASON #6: THE RULE OF LAW COMES TO THE FAMILY NEW LAWS AND POLICE POLICY

30. VF Trends30 Summary Perceived consequences of certainty of informal and formal sanctions make a difference Severity of punishment makes little difference Informal sanctions make more diffeence than legal sanctions No significant differences were found between men and women in perceived certainty and severity of consequences.

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32. VF Trends32 REASON #7 THE DECREASE IN USE OF CORPORAL PUNISHMENT

33. VF Trends33 SWEDISH YOUTH CRIME AND PROBLEMS SINCE 1979 BAN *. CRIME RATES DECREASED Seeming exception of assaults reflects redefinition of bullying as assault and enforcement of zero tolerance * ALCOHOL AND DRUG USE DECREASED * SUICIDE DECREASED

34. VF Trends34 VIOLENCE AGAINST CHILDREN SINCE 1979 BAN: * PUBLIC APPROVAL OF CP DECLINED TO NEAR ZERO *.USE OF CP DECLINED SHARPLY BUT CONTINUES * REPORTS OF MINOR ASSAULTS BY PARENTS (CP) INCREASED, AS INTENDED * SEVERE ASSAULTS ON CHILDREN (CHILD ABUSE) HAVE NOT INCREASED * CHILD ABUSE DEATHS LOWEST IN THE WORLD

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38. VF Trends38 NATIONS AROUND THE WORLD ARE MAKING SPANKING ILLEGAL BUT VERY SLOWLY AND WITH WIDELY VARYING IMPMLIMENTATION Sweden1979 Norway19 Denmark Finland Italy India – 2 states2003 s

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40. VF Trends40 WHY ENDING CORPORAL PUNISHMENT COULD BE A MAJOR PART OF THE EXPLANATION

41. VF Trends41 REASON #8 LESS ECONOMIC STRESS

42. VF Trends42 BETTER EDUCATED PARENTS ARE LESS LIKELY TO BELIEVE THAT "WHEN A BOY IS GROWING UP, IT IS IMPORTANT FOR HIM TO HAVE A FEW FISTFIGHTS IN 1968, 75% OF THE ADULT POPULATION AGREED 1995 GALLUP DISCIPLINE SURVEY (N=1000) CP\CHARTS\RATES\AGE95G2 REASON #9 BETTER EDUCATED POPULAT- ION EDUCATED PEOPLE ARE MORE LIKELY TO REALIZE THAT FEW THINGS HAVE SIMPLE CAUSES AND SIMPLE SOLUTIONS – LIKE VIOLENCE

43. VF Trends43 THESE ARE JUST NINE OF THE MANY CHANGES MAKING FOR A LESS VIOLENT WORLD, INCLUDING LESS FAMILY VIOLENCE HISTORICAL TREND AWAY FROM PERSONAL VIOLENCE PROGRAMS TO END CHILD ABUSE, WIFE BEATING, BULLYIIN CHANGE IN CULTURAL NORMS TOLERATING FAMILY VIOLENCE GROWTH IN EQUALITY BETWEEN MEN AND WOMEN OTHER CHANGES IN FAMILY COMPOSITION AND ORGANIZATION APPLICATION OF THE RULE OF LAW TO THE FAMILY DECREASE IN USE OF CORPORAL PUNISHMENT LESS ECONOMIC STRESS BETTER EDUCATED POPOPULATION THE CIVILIZATION EFFECT

44. VF Trends44 THE FUTURE OF FAMILY VIOLENCE * PREDICTING THE FUTURE IS ALWAYS RISKY Parking lots in New York * ALL FORMS OF FAMILY VIOLENCE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE * THERE WILL BE UPS AND DOWNS AROUND THE TREND LINE Some groups may experience increases, such as those suffered by inner city families during the crack cocaine epidemic THE BENEFITS WILL BE ENORMOUS For individuals, less: mental illness, unhappy marriages, divorce, higher IQ, more education, better job performance, etc, etc. For society, Lower: rates of all types of crime, lower costs for criminal justice and welfare, higher economic productivity, etc. A HEALTHIER, WEALTHIER, AND WISER SOCIEITY