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Back in contention? Tory prospects for 2009/10 John Curtice Strathclyde University
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Target to Win If Change in % Lib Dem Con % Lab % Lead 040.129.310.8 -541.632.88.8 -1043.136.36.8
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Target to be Biggest If Change in % Lib Dem Con % Lab % Lead 037.531.95.6 -539.934.55.4 -1042.337.15.2
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Reasons for Bias zLab seats (still) smaller zLower turnout in Lab seats zTory vote too inefficiently (i.e. evenly) spread
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The Battle with Blair
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Brown Bounces
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Still Stuck in Scotland
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Drift to the Right
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Changing T&S Priorities
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Personal Popularity
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How Cameron Compares
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Economic Competence
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Conclusion zTories face a tall order zHave only briefly been doing well enough to win zClimate more favourable - but is it stable and can it be exploited? zCameron reasonably popular - but still uncertainty about party’s competence?
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