Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Maintenance of a Mesoscale Convective System over Lake Michigan Nicholas D. Metz and Lance F. Bosart Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University.

Published by Modified over 9 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Maintenance of a Mesoscale Convective System over Lake Michigan Nicholas D. Metz and Lance F. Bosart Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University."— Presentation transcript:

1 Maintenance of a Mesoscale Convective System over Lake Michigan Nicholas D. Metz and Lance F. Bosart Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY 12222 E-mail: nmetz@atmos.albany.edu Support provided by the NSF ATM-0646907 10th Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Albany, New York 6 November 2008

2 Motivation MCS maintained its identity crossing Lake Michigan while intense supercell dissipated (will focus on MCS) associated with supercell associated with MCS/MCS boundary MCS and associated convection not well forecast by large-scale models

3 Purpose Describe synoptic/mesoscale flow evolution leading to convection that was not well forecast by the large-scale models Explain why a severe weather-producing MCS was maintained while crossing Lake Michigan Discuss cold-pool-induced boundaries that focused additional severe weather in the wake of the MCS

4 Datasets 20-km  20-km RUC analyses (50 vertical levels) NCDC NEXRAD level 3 radar base reflectivity NPVU 24-h QPE images RAP infrared and water vapor satellite images University at Albany surface data archives University at Albany sounding archives

5 Radar Evolution

6 1145 UTC 1102 UTC 7 June 08 MCS forms near northeastern extent of surface boundary warm advection to east of MCS previous MCS convection 15–20 cm 24-hr QPE ending 1200 UTC 7 June 08

7 MCS 1404 UTC 7 June 08 1415 UTC boundary extending eastward associated with cold pool (will focus here) L

8 1701 UTC 7 June 08 1715 UTC L boundary associated with cold pool from previous MCS

9 2004 UTC 7 June 08 2015 UTC L

10 supercell MCS development along cold-pool-induced boundary 2105 UTC 7 June 08 2115 UTC L

11 2200 UTC 7 June 08 2215 UTC L

12 2304 UTC 7 June 08 2315 UTC L supercell MCS convection along cold-pool-induced boundary

13 0001 UTC 8 June 08 0015 UTC

14 0104 UTC 8 June 08 0115 UTC MCS

15 0302 UTC 8 June 08 0315 UTC

16 0600 UTC 8 June 08 0615 UTC 8–12 cm 24-hr QPE ending 1200 UTC 8 June 08

17 Upper-level Overview

18 1500 UTC 7 June 08 200-hPa Heights (dam), 200-hPa Wind (m s -1 ), 850-hPa Wind (barbs; m s -1 ) LLJ & warm advection 1515 UTC shortwave

19 1800 UTC 7 June 08 200-hPa Heights (dam), 200-hPa Wind (m s -1 ), 850-hPa Wind (barbs; m s -1 ) shortwave 1815 UTC

20 2100 UTC 7 June 08 200-hPa Heights (dam), 200-hPa Wind (m s -1 ), 850-hPa Wind (barbs; m s -1 ) 2115 UTC

21 0000 UTC 8 June 08 200-hPa Heights (dam), 200-hPa Wind (m s -1 ), 850-hPa Wind (barbs; m s -1 ) 0015 UTC

22 Mesoscale Evolution and Convective Development

23 1600 UTC 7 June 08 CAPE (J kg -1 ), 0–1 km Shear (m s -1 ), 0–6 km Shear (barbs; m s -1 ) MCS previous convection

24 1600 UTC 7 June 08 20 23 26 29 23 26 04 08 12 16 20 18 cold-pool- induced boundary SLP (hPa), Surface Temperature (  C), and Surface Mixing Ratio (> 18 g kg -1 ) MCS previous convection cold-pool- induced boundary

25 1600 UTC 7 June 08 20 23 26 29 23 26 04 08 12 16 20 18 Dry Air ~900 J kg -1 SLP (hPa), Surface Temperature (  C), and Surface Mixing Ratio (> 18 g kg -1 )

26 1800 UTC 7 June 08 CAPE (J kg -1 ), 0–1 km Shear (m s -1 ), 0–6 km Shear (barbs; m s -1 )

27 1800 UTC 7 June 08 ~3300 J kg -1 DVN-1800 UTC CAPE (J kg -1 ), 0–1 km Shear (m s -1 ), 0–6 km Shear (barbs; m s -1 )

28 1800 UTC 7 June 08 Frontogenesis Surface Frontogenesis (ºC 100 km -1 3h -1 ), Surface Winds (barbs; m s -1 )

29 2000 UTC 7 June 08 MCS CAPE (J kg -1 ), 0–1 km Shear (m s -1 ), 0–6 km Shear (barbs; m s -1 )

30 2000 UTC 7 June 08 23 26 23 20 29 32 29 26 32 04 08 12 16 18 SLP (hPa), Surface Temperature (  C), and Surface Mixing Ratio (> 18 g kg -1 ) cold-pool- induced boundary warm advection cold-pool- induced boundary

31 2000 UTC 7 June 08 23 26 23 20 29 32 29 26 32 04 08 12 16 18 supercells 2004 UTC cold-pool- induced boundary SLP (hPa), Surface Temperature (  C), and Surface Mixing Ratio (> 18 g kg -1 )

32 2200 UTC 7 June 08 convection along cold- pool-induced boundary CAPE (J kg -1 ), 0–1 km Shear (m s -1 ), 0–6 km Shear (barbs; m s -1 )

33 3-h  e differences at 2300 UTC 7 June 08 950-hPa ∆  e (K), 0–3-km Shear (m s -1 )∆  e (K),  (K), Wind (m s -1 ) cold pool A A’ A A A 2000 UTC 2300 UTC 200 0 400 600 800

34 950-hPa ∆  e (K), 0–3 km Shear (m s -1 ) MSN T, T d, p ºC hPa 3-h  e differences at 2300 UTC 7 June 08

35 950-hPa ∆  e (K), 0–3 km Shear (m s -1 ) 3-h  e differences at 2300 UTC 7 June 08 ºC hPa T, p Buoy 45007

36 0000 UTC 8 June 08 CAPE (J kg -1 ), 0–1 km Shear (m s -1 ), 0–6 km Shear (barbs; m s -1 )

37 0000 UTC 8 June 08 18 23 26 29 04 08 12 16 20 cold-pool- induced boundary MCS convection along cold- pool-induced boundary SLP (hPa), Surface Temperature (  C), and Surface Mixing Ratio (> 18 g kg -1 )

38 18 23 26 29 04 08 12 16 0000 UTC 8 June 08 20 cold-pool- induced boundary MCS convection along cold- pool-induced boundary Surface Frontogenesis (ºC 100 km -1 3h -1 )

39 0000 UTC 8 June 08 PV (PVU), Pressure (hPa), Wind (barbs; m s -1 ) on 305 K isentrope isentropic ascent B’ B

40 0000 UTC 8 June 08 PV (PVU), Pressure (hPa), Wind (barbs; m s -1 ) on 305 K isentrope isentropic ascent B’ B ILX DVN ILX DVN LFC=891 hPa LFC=885 hPa

41 0000 UTC 8 June 08 Convergence (  10 -5 s -1 ),  (K),  (  10 -5 s -1 ), Wind (barbs; m s -1 ) cold-pool- induced boundary 500 750 1000 B B’

42 Evolution and Dissipation of Supercell 2200 UTC2300 UTC 0000 UTC 0100 UTC 2330 UTC incipient supercell

43 0300 UTC 8 June 08 CAPE (J kg -1 ), 0–1 km Shear (m s -1 ), 0–6 km Shear (barbs; m s -1 )

44 Concluding Hypothesis WE z x Strong Shear 3 km time = ttime = t + ∆T Cold Pool Circ. Shear Circ. – + + W Strong Shear 3 km Cold Pool Circ. Shear Circ. – + MCS developed in high shear environment and created strong cold pool in association with dry air aloft Vigorous ascent was maintained over lake as MCS cold pool depth >> lake cold pool depth and ascent was aided by: –ageostrophic circulation associated with frontogenesis –strong low-level jet stream advecting warm/unstable air –weak short-wave trough E

45 Conclusions MCS cold pool created quasi-stationary boundary that: –increased low-level shear (better supercell environment) –acted as a warm front (focus for isentropic ascent) Illinois supercell dissipated over Lake Michigan where water temperature was near 8ºC Cold-Pool- Induced Boundary Supercells SSW Flow and Isentropic Ascent Supercell Track MCS Track Cold Lake Boundary from previous MCS convection

Download ppt "Maintenance of a Mesoscale Convective System over Lake Michigan Nicholas D. Metz and Lance F. Bosart Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University."

Similar presentations

European Storm Forecast Experiment A close look at a severe MCS during the Kyrill winter storm over Central Europe Christoph Gatzen, Pieter Groenemeijer,

European Storm Forecast Experiment A close look at a severe MCS during the Kyrill winter storm over Central Europe Christoph Gatzen, Pieter Groenemeijer,
Climatological Aspects of Ice Storms in the Northeastern U.S. Christopher M. Castellano, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser Department of Atmospheric and.

Climatological Aspects of Ice Storms in the Northeastern U.S. Christopher M. Castellano, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser Department of Atmospheric and.
Stratus. Outline  Formation –Moisture trapped under inversion –Contact layer heating of fog –Fog induced stratus –Lake effect stratus/strato cu  Dissipation.

Stratus. Outline  Formation –Moisture trapped under inversion –Contact layer heating of fog –Fog induced stratus –Lake effect stratus/strato cu  Dissipation.
Forecasting Distributions of Warm-Season Precipitation Associated with 500-hPa Cutoff Cyclones Matthew A. Scalora, Lance F. Bosart, Daniel Keyser Dept.

Forecasting Distributions of Warm-Season Precipitation Associated with 500-hPa Cutoff Cyclones Matthew A. Scalora, Lance F. Bosart, Daniel Keyser Dept.
The Persistence and Dissipation of Lake Michigan-Crossing Mesoscale Convective Systems Nicholas D. Metz* and Lance F. Bosart # * Department of Geoscience,

The Persistence and Dissipation of Lake Michigan-Crossing Mesoscale Convective Systems Nicholas D. Metz* and Lance F. Bosart # * Department of Geoscience,
The Effects of Lake Michigan on Mature Mesoscale Convective Systems Nicholas D. Metz and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences.

The Effects of Lake Michigan on Mature Mesoscale Convective Systems Nicholas D. Metz and Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences.
Analysis of Rare Northeast Flow Events By Joshua Beilman and Stephanie Acito.

Analysis of Rare Northeast Flow Events By Joshua Beilman and Stephanie Acito.
Analysis of Precipitation Distributions Associated with Two Cool-Season Cutoff Cyclones Melissa Payer, Lance F. Bosart, Daniel Keyser Department of Atmospheric.

Analysis of Precipitation Distributions Associated with Two Cool-Season Cutoff Cyclones Melissa Payer, Lance F. Bosart, Daniel Keyser Department of Atmospheric.
The Well Mixed Boundary Layer as Part of the Great Plains Severe Storms Environment Jonathan Garner Storm Prediction Center.

The Well Mixed Boundary Layer as Part of the Great Plains Severe Storms Environment Jonathan Garner Storm Prediction Center.
A Multiscale Analysis of the Inland Reintensification of Tropical Cyclone Danny (1997) within an Equatorward Jet-Entrance Region Matthew S. Potter, Lance.

A Multiscale Analysis of the Inland Reintensification of Tropical Cyclone Danny (1997) within an Equatorward Jet-Entrance Region Matthew S. Potter, Lance.
The Influence of the Elevated Mixed Layer on Record High Temperatures and Severe Weather Over the Northeast US in April and May 2010 Jason M. Cordeira.

The Influence of the Elevated Mixed Layer on Record High Temperatures and Severe Weather Over the Northeast US in April and May 2010 Jason M. Cordeira.
Written by; Brian P. Pettegrew, Patrick S. Market, Raymond A. Wolf, Ronald L. Holle, and Nicholas W.S. Demetriades Presentation by; Marcello Andiloro.

Written by; Brian P. Pettegrew, Patrick S. Market, Raymond A. Wolf, Ronald L. Holle, and Nicholas W.S. Demetriades Presentation by; Marcello Andiloro.
An Overview of Environmental Conditions and Forecast Implications of the 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak Richard L. Thompson and Roger Edwards Presentation.

An Overview of Environmental Conditions and Forecast Implications of the 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak Richard L. Thompson and Roger Edwards Presentation.
Predecessor Rain Events Ahead of TC Ike and TC Lowell on 11–14 September 2008 Lance F. Bosart, Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr., Jason M. Cordeira, and Benjamin.

Predecessor Rain Events Ahead of TC Ike and TC Lowell on 11–14 September 2008 Lance F. Bosart, Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr., Jason M. Cordeira, and Benjamin.
EASTERLY WAVE STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION OVER WEST AFRICA AND THE EAST ATLANTIC Matthew A. Janiga Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University.

EASTERLY WAVE STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION OVER WEST AFRICA AND THE EAST ATLANTIC Matthew A. Janiga Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University.
Flow Channeling In The Mohawk & Hudson Valleys A Multiscale Case Study of Surface Flow Convergence Ninth Annual Northeast Regional Operational Workshop/NWS/CESTM.

Flow Channeling In The Mohawk & Hudson Valleys A Multiscale Case Study of Surface Flow Convergence Ninth Annual Northeast Regional Operational Workshop/NWS/CESTM.
Cyclogenesis and Upper-Level Jet Streaks and their Influence on the Low-Level Jet Keith Wagner, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser Department of Earth.

Cyclogenesis and Upper-Level Jet Streaks and their Influence on the Low-Level Jet Keith Wagner, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser Department of Earth.
A brief synopsis of Johnson and Mapes: Mesoscale Processes and Severe Convective Weather From Severe Convective Storms sections 3.3b, 3.3c.1, 3.4 By Matt.

A brief synopsis of Johnson and Mapes: Mesoscale Processes and Severe Convective Weather From Severe Convective Storms sections 3.3b, 3.3c.1, 3.4 By Matt.
An Unusual Pathway to Oceanic Cyclogenesis Linking “Perfect Storms” in the North Atlantic Ocean Jason M. Cordeira and Lance F. Bosart Department of Earth.

An Unusual Pathway to Oceanic Cyclogenesis Linking “Perfect Storms” in the North Atlantic Ocean Jason M. Cordeira and Lance F. Bosart Department of Earth.
Warm-Season Lake-/Sea-Breeze Severe Weather in the Northeast Patrick H. Wilson, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser Department of Earth and Atmospheric.

Warm-Season Lake-/Sea-Breeze Severe Weather in the Northeast Patrick H. Wilson, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser Department of Earth and Atmospheric.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google