1. UW-Milwaukee Geography NATIONAL PHENOLOGY NETWORK (NPN) Challenges of Building a Phenological Research Infrastructure a Phenological Research Infrastructure in the USA in the USA

2. UW-Milwaukee Geography Research Contributions u Research Collaborators: R. Ahas, A. Aasa, X. Chen, B. Reed, M. White, and T. Zhao u Phenology data from J. Caprio, DWD, and A. Menzel u Climate data from Chinese Meteorological Administration, German Weather Service (DWD), Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej (Poland), and USA National Climatic Data Center u NSF Grants ATM-9510342, 9809460, and 0085224 u Base maps from ESRI data

3. UW-Milwaukee Geography Definition of Phenology u Phenology which is derived from the Greek word phaino meaning to show or to appear, is the study of plant and animal life cycle events, which are triggered by environmental changes, especially temperature. Thus, timings of phenological events are ideal indicators of global change impacts. u Seasonality is a related term, referring to similar non-biological events, such as timing of the fall formation and spring break-up of ice on fresh water lakes.

4. UW-Milwaukee Geography Phenological Research u Traditional approach: agriculture- centered, and local-scale events u Recent approach: Earth systems interactions, and global-scale events u Question: What roles for phenology in current and future agricultural research?

5. UW-Milwaukee Geography Decadal Averaged Cherry Bloom in Kyoto, Japan Data Source: web file (no longer available)

6. UW-Milwaukee Geography Mean onset of spring phenophases in the International Phenological Gardens (Europe) Source: Menzel et al. 2001, Global Change Biology, Figure 1

7. UW-Milwaukee Geography Cloned lilac first leaf and first bloom dates at a single station in Vermont

8. UW-Milwaukee Geography Simulated phenology developed from lilac and honeysuckle data combined with climate data Source: Schwartz and Reiter 2000, Plate 4 (updated)

9. UW-Milwaukee Geography Critical Research Areas u Atmosphere-Biosphere Interactions u Long-term Organism response to Climate Change u Global Phenology Databases for monitoring and management

10. UW-Milwaukee Geography Integrated Approach u Satellite Observations (AVHRR-NDVI) u Indicator Species Phenology u Native Species Phenology

11. UW-Milwaukee Geography Lilac First Leaf

12. UW-Milwaukee Geography Lilac First Bloom

13. UW-Milwaukee Geography DMA NDVI Start of Season 1995 (Schwartz et al. 2002, mean day = 74, March 15 th )

14. UW-Milwaukee Geography Critical Research Areas u Atmosphere-Biosphere Interactions u Long-term Organism response to Climate Change u Global Phenology Databases for monitoring and management

15. UW-Milwaukee Geography Diurnal Range Change with Lilac First Leaf Source: Schwartz 1996, Figure 3

16. UW-Milwaukee Geography Comparative Net Ecosystem Exchange

17. UW-Milwaukee Geography Comparative Net Ecosystem Exchange Annual “Downturn” Rates

18. UW-Milwaukee Geography Critical Research Areas u Atmosphere-Biosphere Interactions u Long-term Organism response to Climate Change u Global Phenology Databases for monitoring and management

19. UW-Milwaukee Geography Terrestrial Biosphere Dynamic Change Detection u Satellite Phenology u Simulated Phenology (Models) u Cloned Species Phenology u Native Species Phenology

20. UW-Milwaukee Geography Satellite Phenology u Advantages: 1) Global coverage; 2) Integrated signal  Limitations: 1) Short period-of-record; 2) Cloud cover interference; 3) Interpretation issues; 4) Small set of measures

21. UW-Milwaukee Geography SMN NDVI Start of Season 1995 (Schwartz et al. 2002, mean day = 124, May 4 th )

22. UW-Milwaukee Geography Simulated Phenology u Advantages: 1) Broad coverage if using simple input; 2) Standardized response u Limitations: 1) Model inadequacies; 2) Small set of events and plants

23. UW-Milwaukee Geography Spring Indices Suite of Measures u First -2.2 o C freeze date in Autumn u Composite chill date (SI models) u First leaf date (SI models) u First bloom date (SI models) u Last -2.2 o C freeze date in Spring u -2.2 o C Freeze period u Damage index value (first leaf – last frost) u Average annual, average seasonal, and twelve average monthly temperatures

24. UW-Milwaukee Geography SI First Leaf Date 1961-2000 Slope

25. UW-Milwaukee Geography North. Hem. SI First Leaf Date Departures

26. UW-Milwaukee Geography North. Hem. Last –2.2 o C Freeze Date Departures

27. UW-Milwaukee Geography SI Damage Index Value 1961-2000 Slope

28. UW-Milwaukee Geography Cloned Species Phenology u Advantages: 1) Ideal for model development; 2) Standardized response to environment; 3) Broad range u Limitations: 1) Lack of network geographical coverage; 2) Not adapted to local environment

29. UW-Milwaukee Geography Lilac First Leaf 1961-2000 Slope

30. UW-Milwaukee Geography Lilac First Bloom 1961-2000 Slope

31. UW-Milwaukee Geography Native Species Phenology u Advantages: 1) Adapted to the local environment; 2) Precise signal u Limitations: 1) Lack of network geographical coverage; 2) Limited range; 3) Geographical variations in response

32. UW-Milwaukee Geography Integrated Approach Example: Wisconsin Zhao and Schwartz (2003) u Satellite phenology (DMA SOS) u Simulated phenology (SI first bloom dates) u “Native” species phenology (WPS records of first bloom date for 21 introduced and 32 native species)

33. UW-Milwaukee Geography Integrated Species Indices (ISI) southwestern Wisconsin

34. UW-Milwaukee Geography Critical Research Areas u Atmosphere-Biosphere Interactions u Long-term Organism response to Climate Change u Global Phenology Databases for monitoring and management

35. UW-Milwaukee Geography Critical Data/Analysis Needs u Interpretation/Comparison of satellite phenology with “spatial” surface data u Interpretation of “ripple effects” in biomes and managed systems u National, continental, and global scale phenology networks

36. UW-Milwaukee Geography USA National Phenology Network (NPN) u a continental-scale network observing regionally appropriate native plant species, cloned indicator plants (lilac), (and selected agricultural crops?) u designed to complement remote sensing observations u data collected will be freely available to the research community and general public

37. UW-Milwaukee Geography Prototype for web-based NPN http://www.npn.uwm.edu

38. UW-Milwaukee Geography Select appropriate native species

39. UW-Milwaukee Geography Submit data over the Internet

40. UW-Milwaukee Geography What might be possible with 20 years (or less) of phenological data? u Facilitate understanding of plant phenological cycles and their relationship to climate u Comprehensive evaluation of satellite-derived measurements u Detection of long-term phenological trends in response to climate variability/global warming u Evaluate impacts of longer growing seasons on pollinators, cattle, crop and forest pests, wildfires, carbon storage, and water use

41. UW-Milwaukee Geography Issues for NPN Implementation Workshop (Aug. 23-25, 2005 in Tucson, AZ) u Native species selection for regions u Expansion of indicator plants to entire country u Web-based reporting and feedback system u Network infrastructure design and function u Collaborative and cooperative agreements u Deployment and development strategies u Public engagement and awareness