1. PROTECTION AND SUBSIDIES: WHAT ARE WE CUTTING? Sector Import tariff (tms) Output subsidies (to) export subsidies (txs) Land related input subsidies (tfdland), part of greenbox Grains23.220.5318.91-87.53 Oilseeds0.0031.823.18-79.41 Cotton0.0027.072.71-22.15 OthCrops9.040.919.87-15.56 Livestock1.430.131.71-8.50 Dairy23.91-0.0219.310.00 Sugar88.26-0.0789.730.00 OthFood13.98-2.0913.850.00 Average19.987.2919.91-26.64

2. Welfare gains

3. Change in farm income

4. Output and price changes Grains: EU decrease (7.8 – 16.4%), fairly uniform increase in other countries (max 2.7% in DevAsia and MENA in Full & greenbox) Dairy: EU decrease (6.9 – 12.3%), high increase MENA, RAfrica, OthOECD (15 – 30%) Sugar: EU decrease (24 – 42 %), high increase OthSAmerica, RAfrica (15 – 38%) World price changes: fairly small, from 0 to 4.6 % (Oilseeds in Full & greenbox)

5. EU Land allocation “green box”: removal changing land allocation Move from more distorted sectors to less

6. Land rents Decreasing in the EU –Doha basic: 11.8%, Doha & greenbox: 59.4% –Full basic: 21.8%, Full & greenbox : 62.7% Increasing in other countries: –Doha: max 5% (OthSAm, OthOECD, Brazil) –Full: max 13% (Brazil, OthSAm), 8% (OthOECD), smaller elsewhere Land fixity

7. Buyout scheme (PV at 10%, annual CAP cost 60 billion USD) Doha basic: 40 billion USD (less than 1 year worth of CAP) Doha & greenbox: 170 billion USD (2.8 years worth of CAP) Full basic: 79 billion USD (1.3 year worth of CAP) Full & greenbox: 228 billion USD (3.8 years worth of CAP)

8. Lessons learnt Factors moving away from agriculture, TOT effect in manufacturing overtakes allocative efficiency effect Farm income in the EU decreases Land allocation changes Land rents decrease No NAMA