1. Assessment of the Reform Process Who has won and who has lost?

2. Who are in the race? East European States Other states categories of East European citizen political groupings economic organisations

3. How do we define winning and losing? Economically politically human rights socially [civil society] environmentally health internal security external security

4. Economically, States Winners whoever gets into EU first [investment and trade] All states with EU border Problem that this is now an internal UK political issue Losers last into the EU [but surely world market better!?] All states distant from EU Is membership of an integrating EU a benefit or a handicap?

5. Poland [CIA] 70% of economy now in private sector agriculture poor current account deficit growth 3.8% inflation 8.4 unemployment 11% debt $44billion [not improving] GDP per capita about $7,000

6. Hungary 85% of economy private $21 billion foreign direct investment 4% growth 10% inflation 10% unemployment $27 billion debt GDP per capita about $7,000

7. Slovenia Highest GDP per capita of transition economies at $11,000 inflation 6.3% Unemployment 7.1% Germany largest trading partner debt $4.9billion

8. Romania Economy still contracting at about 5% p.a. GDP per capita about $5,000 inflation 44% unemployment 11% debt $9 billion

9. Russia GDP contracted 45% since 1991 Inflation 86% [1999] wages down 30%, pensions down 45% during 1999 unemployment c 12% still underemployment, too debt $166 billion

10. Bulgaria Stabilising after triple-digit inflation. Change of government 1997 IMF currency board system introduced Unemployment 15% Inflation 6.2% debt $10 billion GDP per capita $4,300

11. Economically, citizens Winners organised crime nomenklatura former secret police café and restaurant owners Losers pensioners public sector white collar industrial workers

12. Are the burdens too great? Is democracy enough? Elections plus civil rights versus poverty Falling voting rates unemployment consumerism plus democracy OK democracy without goods in shops BAD

13. Political winners and losers Winners Oligarchs now kingmakers Berezovski the Russian Murdoch? reformed Communists now gaining votes most politicians now from previous regime Losers Lech Walesa [1% in presidemtial elections 2000] Most dissidents. The winners of the first post-Communist elections fast disappearing into obscurity

14. Is security greater or less 1? Crime up fear of arrest for dissidence down fear of being shot up fear of violence up fear of unemployment up fear of decline in value of savings/pension up

15. Is security greater or less 2? Fear of international conflict down fear of internal conflict up E.Europe safer Russia not