1. Population

2. SOME DISCUSSION QUESTIONS: Identify one demographic trend that is likely to affect you at some point during your lifetime. Identify one demographic trend that has/will affect Canadian society.

3. Population and Policy The main population phenomena are: u FERTILITY u MIGRATION u and MORTALITY.

4. Processes and States u DEMOGRAPHY studies the stock (or state) of populations (their size, distribution and composition) at a given time point and their flow (or processes involving population change).

5. The stock and flow of population are dynamically interrelated. For example, P2=P1+B-D+I-E, where P2 is population at time 2, P1 is population at time 1, B is births, D is deaths, I is immigration and E is emigration.

6. Malthus One of the two classical perspectives on population processes is that of Malthus. u Positive checks on population. u Preventative checks on population.

7. Marx u The second classical theory of population is Marx’s.

8. Demographic Transition Theory u An important modern demographic theory is the THEORY OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION.

9. Demographic Transition Theory birth rate death rate stagepreindustrialearly industrialmature industrial growthslowfastslow 123 Time

10. World Population Growth

11. World Population, 1750-2100 (in millions) millions Year

12. World Population and Urban Growth, 1950-2020 1950 2020 2.5 billion 8.1 billion

13. The World’s Largest Cities, 1950 and 2000 (in millions) 1950 London ======= 6.6 New York ==== 4.2 Paris === 3.3 Berlin == 2.4 Chicago == 1.7 Vienna == 1.6 Tokyo == 1.5 St Ptrsbrg. = 1.4 Philadel. = 1.4 2000 Mexico C. ========== 31.0 Sao Paulo ========= 25.8 Tokyo ======== 24.2 New York======= 22.8 Shanghai ======= 22.7 Beijing ======= 19.9 Los Ang. ====== 17.1 Bombay ====== 16.8 Calcutta ======16.7

14. Population Change in Canada: Mortality u Life Expectancy u Infant Mortality

15. Population Change in Canada: Fertility I u The baby boom of 1946-66 excepted, there has been a long-term decline in the fertility rate, from 7 births per woman in the 1850s to under 2 in the 1980s. u COHORT COMPLETED FERTILITY u TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

16. Population Change in Canada: Fertility II u Immediate causes u Economic causes u Structural factors u Cultural factors

17. Population Change in Canada: Immigration I

18. Population Change in Canada: Immigration II

19. Population Growth, Canada by Province and Territory, 1951-91 (in percent) % growth Canada = 201%

20. Immigration and Emigration, Canada, 1988-95 (in ‘000s) ‘000s Year

21. Some Key Demographic Formulae u Birth rate = births/1,000 population u Death rate= deaths/1,000 population u Rate of natural increase = (birth rate - death rate)/10* u Net migration = immigration - emigration u Rate of net migration = (net migration/1,000 population)/10* u Growth rate = rate of natural increase + rate of net migration* * expressed as percent per year