2. Chinook Management Overview Rishi Sharma Columbia River Intertribal Fish Commission University of Washington, Quantitative Ecology & Resource Management

3. Overview Catch and stock abundances over fisheries and time. Catch and stock abundances over fisheries and time. Overview of current approach intricacies. Overview of current approach intricacies. Possible approaches to use in Harvest management taking climate into consideration. Possible approaches to use in Harvest management taking climate into consideration.

4. Area and Jurisdiction of the Pacific Salmon Treaty

5. Abundance trends over time

6. Ocean Catch trends over time

7. Columbia Abundance over time URB Mean = 174,431 Up River Sp = 111,228 Willamette Springs = 78,840

8. Columbia River Catch trends over time

9. Current Approach-Key Components Relies on information derived from the Coded Wire Tag (CWT) Program. Relies on information derived from the Coded Wire Tag (CWT) Program. Terminal run forecasts. Terminal run forecasts. Externally estimated Stock Production Functions. Externally estimated Stock Production Functions. Tuned Virtual Population Analysis (VPA). Tuned Virtual Population Analysis (VPA). Estimates environmental variability. Estimates environmental variability. Projects current year abundance (based on above). Projects current year abundance (based on above).

10. PNW Chinook Stock Abundances over time Far North (AK & Northern BC) Fraser River WCVI & Georgia St Puget Sound Columbia River Snake River WA & OR Coast

11. Approaches to use in long term management of stocks Determine a Environmental signal for the stock of concern. Determine a Environmental signal for the stock of concern. Devise regime based stock production functions for management. Devise regime based stock production functions for management.

12. Regime based Production Functions

14. Overarching conundrum How do we know which regime we are in? How do we know which regime we are in? How do we account for issues of scale : long term climate signals versus yearly management cycles? How do we account for issues of scale : long term climate signals versus yearly management cycles?