1. Presented by: Von P. Walden(UI, lead scientist)‏ Rick Allen(UI hydro-climatology liaison)‏ Colden Baxter (ISU ecology liaison)‏ Sian Mooney (BSU economics liaison)‏ Water Resources in a Changing Climate : Connections to Ecological and Human Systems

2. Background and Context National Research Priorities “Determining how natural fluctuations and anthropogenic factors impact the water cycle… is a major scientific challenge for the geosciences.” “Geoscientists must probe more deeply into the coupled, interactive processes of the water cycle” “quantify variability and alterations in the system(s) caused by global change” Excerpt from recent NSF program solicitation for Water Cycle Research

3. Background and Context (cont.)‏ “limitations of discipline-based perspectives have become clear” “integrate across the physical, chemical, biological, and social sciences” “the challenge… in water resources research… is to engage researchers in novel collaborations” NRC, 2004. Confronting the Nation’s Water Problems: The Role of Research

4. Average climate change scenario (ECHAM5). Temperature difference between the first and last decades of the 21st century for the month of April, the first month of the snow melt season. Precipitation is expected to be more variable; greater extremes, including prolonged droughts Projected Climate Change in Idaho oCoC

5. Background and Context Long-term warming over the past couple of decades is beginning to manifest itself on Idaho’s water resources Timing Magnitude (From G. Clarke, USGS)‏

6. Background and Context Warmer temperatures may increase demand for: –Irrigation and agriculture (evapotranspiration)‏ –Urban areas –Industrial uses (power generation)‏ And change the timing and magnitude of natural flows, thus affecting: –Natural ecosystems Climate change, in general, is expected to change the timing and magnitude of hydrologic systems, which will then impact ecological and human systems.

7. Research Questions How will future climate change impact water resources? –Hydro - Climate –Hydro - Economic / Policy –Hydro - Ecology

8. Research Questions Hydro-climate interactions –What are the relationships between climate change, vegetation, snow pack, and the resulting stream flows in managed and unmanaged river systems? –How will aquifer systems exchange with surface and groundwater under various climate change scenarios? –What will both the supply and demand on water be in these systems under various climate change scenarios?

9. Research Questions Hydro-Economic / Policy Interactions –How will changes in the timing and variability of water affect land use, urban growth, and water management within the Snake River Plain? –How will changes in water availability affect conjunctive use of water and the relative value of surface water and groundwater rights? –What are the expected changes in ecosystem services related to climate change?

10. Research Capabilities Hydro-Ecological Interactions –What are the historical relationships among climate, hydrology, geomorphic conditions, fire, and ecology in the Salmon? –How do current ecological conditions in the Salmon compare with the past? –Can observed changes in hydrology, geomorphology, disturbances (fire, insects), and ecological health be attributed to changes in climate? If so, can accurate predictions of future changes in ecological conditions be made for the next century?

11. Building Research Capabilities Climate processes in northern Rocky Mountains (regional climate predictions, paleo-climate reconstructions) (Hydro-Climate)‏ Coupled modeling of water supply/demand for large-basin water resource planning under a changing climate, including surface/groundwater interactions (large managed basins) (Hydro- Climate, Hydro-Economic/Policy)‏ Long-term effects of climate change on natural ecosystems (pristine, unmanaged basins) (Hydro-Ecology)‏ Relationship between climate change, changing flow and moisture regimes, and disturbances to the landscape in the northern Rocky Mountains (Hydro-Ecology)‏ Development of prospective sites for long-term ecological research [future Long-Term Research in Evolutionary Biology (LTREB) sites,…] (Hydro-Ecology)‏

12. Research Plan Idaho as a “Natural Laboratory” for climate change research of national significance: –Snake River Plain (SRP) Large, Managed Hydrologic Systems –Salmon River Basin (SRB) Pristine, relatively unmanaged Hydrologic Systems

13. Moscow Boise Idaho Falls Research Plan Snake River Plain large river system highly managed human influences economics/policy agricultural fisheries Salmon River Basin headwaters pristine natural economic value fisheries

14. Research Plan Connection between surface and groundwater

15. Research Plan Connection between surface and groundwater Two-way coupling between hydrology and vegetation

16. Research Plan Connection between surface and groundwater Two-way coupling between hydrology and vegetation Snowmelt/hydrology Fire (prescribed)‏ Invasive Species

17. Research Plan Connection between surface and groundwater Two-way coupling between hydrology and vegetation Snowmelt/hydrology Fire (pre-scribed)‏ Invasive Species Aquatic Ecosystems (stream health, fisheries)

18. Research Plan Connection between surface and groundwater Two-way coupling between hydrology and vegetation Snowmelt/hydrology Fire (pre-scribed)‏ Invasive Species Aquatic Ecosystems (stream health, fisheries) Disturbances (fires, insect infestations, Erosional processes)‏

19. Leveraging External Mentors –Overall Team Management Ed Miles (CIG, U. Washington)‏ –Hydro-climatology Dennis Lettenmaier (U. Washington)‏ –Hydro-Ecological Interactions Steve Running (U. Montana)‏ –Hydro-Economic John Antle (Montana State Univ.)‏

20. Leveraging Organizational Strategy –Complement establish research activities at the Climate Impacts Group (CIG) at U. Washington –CIG as an “Mentor Organization”

21. Leveraging Collaboration with neighboring EPSCoR programs –Idaho, New Mexico, and Nevada are all focusing on Climate Change in this RII. –Idaho’s efforts are complementary to other states. New Mexico - Climate Change and Mountain Hydrology Nevada - Climate Change in desert regions; soil processes –NSF has “strongly encouraged” these 3 states to work together, especially on cyberinfrastructure.

22. Leveraging Field Sites –Snake River Plain Long-term commitment to modeling of surface and groundwater –Salmon River Basin Long-term datasets on riparian systems (of many orders) originally related to fire research –INL plant community plots Long-term data records of changes in plant species distributions and their relationship to hydrologic processes –Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed Existing infrastructure for process studies on snowmelt. Long-term data records for hydrologic, BGC, and invasive species modeling.

23. Timeline Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4 Year 5 Junior Faculty Instrumentation New Hires Re-compete $3M per year for 5 years, plus $0.6M in state funds $2M per year for Science Infrastructure (Possibility for additional $1M/yr for Research; about $0.6M/yr for CI)‏ Climate Change Impacts Integration/ Adaptation

24. Theme: Water Resources in a Changing Climate Walden (UI)‏ External Mentors: Miles (UW)‏ External Collaborator: Pierson (ARS, RCEW), Rango (ARS)‏ H ydrology/Climate Allen (UI*), Leader External Mentor: Lettenmaier (UW)‏ Other collaborators: Salathe, Littell (UW)‏ Faculty Adviors: Boll, Johnson, Link (UI), McNamara Participants: Sridhar (BSU), Feris (BSU), Germino (ISU), New hires Hydrology/Climate - Biological Impacts Baxter (ISU*), Leader External Mentor: Running (UMt)‏ Faculty Adv: Benner (BSU), Glenn (ISU), Vierling (UI)‏ Participants: Crosby (ISU), Hicke (UI), Kennedy (UI), Pierce (BSU), Smith (UI), Yager (UI), New hires Hydrology/Climate - Economic/Social Impacts Mooney (BSU*), Leader External Mentor: John Antle (MSU)‏ Faculty Advisors: Hamilton, (UI, ret)‏ Participants: Ames (ISU), Lowe (BSU), New hires * Institutional Liaisons Stakeholder Advisory Committee Kathy Peter (USGS)‏ Rich Rigby (USBR)‏ Dave Tuthill, IDWR Toni Hardesty, (DEQ)‏ Emmit Taylor, Jr, (Nez Perce Tribe)‏ (more to come…)‏

25. Junior Faculty Development 10 New Hires –Year 1 Water Resource Engineer (UI Boise)Hydro-Climate –Year 2 Water Resource Engineer (BSU)Hydro-Climate Climatologist (UI)Hydro-Climate Spatial Econometrician (BSU)Hydro-Econ/Policy Ecosystem Ecologist (BSU)Hydro-Econ/Policy –Year 3 Regional Scientist (UI)Hydro-Econ/Policy Soil Scientist (ISU)Hydro-Climate –Year 4 Spatial Analyst(ISU)Hydro-Climate Ecosystem Services Expert (UI)Hydro-Ecology Water Policy Expert (UI)Hydro-Econ/Policy

26. Instrumentation Hydro-Climate –Large-aperture scintillometer –Eddy-covariance systems –Fiber-optic temperature sensor system –Thermal infrared, NIR, and visible radiometers Hydro-Ecology –Maintenance of sprinkler system for INL plots –Gas Chromatograph –Snow/vegetation Interaction Lab –Mobile Climate Manipulation Array –Total Station

27. Lidar Data and Cyberinfrastructure Airborne –Salmon River Basin Vegetation Characteristics –Fire, Insect Infestations River Channel Characteristics –Geomorphology –Reynolds Creek (shared by various participants)‏ Snow and Vegetation Ground-based –Potential studies in hillside erosion, … (large datasets at very fine res.)‏

28. Summary Research Plan is focused on the connection between climate change and water resources, but in three main areas: –Hydro-Climate Interactions –Hydro-Ecological Interactions –Hydro-Econ/Policy Interactions

29. Summary Research Capabilities will be built up in both: –Understanding Impacts of Climate Change on Managed and Natural Ecosystems –Adaptation to Future Climate Change

30. Summary Research Infrastructure will be improved by: –Developing existing junior faculty –Making strategic new hires –Purchasing instrumentation –Acquisition and generation of large datasets

31. Faculty Web Hydro-Climate Allen (UI)‏ Hydro-Econ/Policy Mooney (BSU)‏ Hydro-Ecology Baxter (ISU)‏ Sridhar Smith Crosby Feris Germino Pierce Yager Hicke Kennedy Ames Lowe Climatologist Water Res Engineer Spatial Analyst Regional Scientist Water Policy Expert Eco-Services Soil Scientist Ecosystem Ecologist Spatial Econometrician Stakeholders