1. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania European Early Warning Systems for Floods and Droughts - How could Romania benefit? Dr. Ad De Roo European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre Institute for Environment and Sustainability Land Management and Natural Hazards Unit Weather Driven Natural Hazard Action JRC Information Day - Romania

2. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania Before What can be done to prevent flood losses? Forecasting Early warning Forest Fires Floods Droughts Storms Damage assessment Prevention Climate change Land use change EU Solidarity Funds Structural funds Preparedness Awareness Risk maps EFAS EFFIS EDAS After Scenario studies Damage estimates

3. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania European Flood Alert System (EFAS) Objective: 3-10 days early warning for floods  More time to prepare for a crisis! flood probabilities > 3-10 days forecasting for entire river basins information exchange platform Complementing Member States’ activities (NIHWM Romania) harmonized overview: crisis aid

4. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania Pilot study (EFFS; 2000-2003) Identify customer needs (2003) Prototype development Testing (with NHS) Transfer of operational system to MS (2010) EFAS: from research to operation Romania: NIHW

5. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania EFAS – how does it work? RO: now! Forecast products Input data Model system LISFLOOD (JRC) Feedback – Improvement Impact assessement Agreed partners

6. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania EFAS USER INTERFACE – Exploring EFAS results in different ways

7. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania EFAS user interface: Overview maps – summarising flood threshold exceedance spatially deterministic probabilistic

8. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania EFAS user interface: Point information

9. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania EFAS: SIMPLIFYING INFORMATION

10. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania EFAS: looking back in time - persistency

11. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania Communication to endusers

12. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania European Flood Alert System: Example of a successful flood alert 30 July 2004 Siret, Romania Black Sea HU SK RU BG CZ A Rainfall forecasted Flood problems forecasted Adriatic Sea Alert send on 30 July; Floods confirmed by NIHWM on 3-4 August Low flood risk Medium flood risk High flood risk Extreme flood risk

13. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania EFAS results in 2003-6 Early Flood Alert Reports to partners (Danube) Aug 2003Siret (RO) Aug 2004Siret (RO) Jul 2005Danube (SK, HU) Aug 2005Rhine and Danube (HU, DE, AT) Sep 2005Po (It), Danube (2 BG, RO) Mar/Apr 200670 alert reports to Elbe+Danube (*) 2005: 9 out of 10 events were correctly forecasted more than 3 days in advance! * (2006 floods: EFAS agreement with RO not signed yet)

14. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania Romania: Extremely wet summer 2005! July 2005 August 2005 In Romania & Bulgaria: at places more than 300% more precipitation than the average of 90-04

15. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania EFAS MARS >HAL 05.2005

16. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania EFAS MARS >HAL 06.2005 BU again flooded

17. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania EFAS MARS >HAL 07.2005 Ro/Bu Danube floods

18. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania EFAS MARS >HAL 08.2005 August Danube floods

19. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania EFAS MARS >HAL 09.2005 RO/Bu floods- again French floods – small scale, also well forecasted! In particular the second flood peak

20. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania EFAS FLOOD ALERTS in MARCH 2006 3 4 5 6 7 1,2 1 : Rhine (DE), 07-12 th 2 : Rhine (DE), 23-31 st 3 : Elbe&Morava (Cz), 25-31 st 4 : Danube/Tisza (HU), 27-31 st 5 : Elbe (DE), 28-31 st 6 : Morava (SK), 29-31 st 7 : Danube (BG), 31 st Flood Alert Reports Informal Flood Watch a – Soane/Rhone (FR) b – Oder (PL) a b

21. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania EFAS FLOOD ALERTS in April 2006 2 3,7 4 5 6 1 1 : Rhine (DE), 1st 2 : Elbe&Morava (Cz), 1-7 th 3 : Danube/Tisza (HU), 1-7 th 4 : Elbe (DE), 1-7 th 5 : Morava (SK), 29-31 st 6 : Danube (BG), 1-9 th 7 : Tisza (HU), 11-17 th Flood Alert Reports Informal Flood Watch

22. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania History at a point - from 20.03 Overview Maps Forecast starting on 03.04.06 DWD ECMWF EPS>HAL to 15.04 Danube - Tisza 1) Tisza – Danube 12 External EFAS IR From: 27.03 To: 07.04 2) Tisza 7 External EFAS IR From: 11.04 To: 17.04

23. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania History at a point - from 20.03 DWD ECMWF EPS>HAL to 15.04 Danube - Morava Overview Maps Forecast starting on 03.04.06 Morava - Danube Informal EFAS Info From: 29.03 to 07.04

24. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania DWD ECMWF EPS>HAL Danube tributaries in Romania History at a point - from 20.03 to 15.04 Overview Maps Forecast starting on 11.04.06

25. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania History at a point - from 20.03 DWD ECMWF EPS>HAL to 15.04 Main Danube Lower I Overview Maps Forecast starting on 03.04.06 Danube 10 External EFAS IR From: 31.03 To: 09.04

26. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania History at a point - from 20.03 DWD ECMWF EPS>HAL to 15.04 Main Danube Lower II Overview Maps Forecast starting on 03.04.06 Danube 10 External EFAS IR From: 31.03 To: 09.04

27. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania Latest EFAS forecast for Romania EFAS: 9 May 12:00 Nothing critical expected

28. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania European Drought Alert System Complementing Member States activities towards better preparedness for droughts forecasting, detection and monitoring of drought conditions integration of drought preparedness actions on international and regional scales

29. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania Trend: wetter soil conditions 2000 2002 2004 2006 Is Romania getting wetter ? wet dry

30. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania Conclusions Need for transnational forecasting systems and collaborations for floods JRC-EFAS ICPDR Romania: fruitful cooperation with JRC Outlook: Finalising EFAS for the Danube Impact of climate change on extremes Flood risk mapping

31. JRC information day, 11 May 2006, Romania Information http://natural-hazards.jrc.it http://efas.jrc.it Contacts: Ad.de-roo@jrc.it Working together to be better prepared for natural disasters