1. Causation Reasoning about how and why things happen

2. The Main Issue in Causal Reasoning: Evaluation of a Causal Claim

3. May be intended as a causal hypothesis If I persistently and obnoxiously get in someone's face, that will force them to take my demands seriously.

4. The Main Issue in Causal Reasoning: Evaluation of a Causal Claim May be intended as a causal hypothesis May be intended as a conclusion based on observation or inductive inference Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

5. Reasoning patterns that work

6. w Relevant difference reasoning If an effect is present in one situation but not present in other similar situations, consider relevant differences as causes of the effect. Screen for alternative causes.

7. Reasoning patterns that work w Relevant difference reasoning If an effect is present in one situation but not present in other similar situations, consider relevant differences as causes of the effect. Screen for alternative causes. w Common thread reasoning If an effect is present in multiple situations, consider as a cause any feature that is present whenever the effect is present. Consider alternative causes.

8. Reasoning errors and patterns that don’t work well enough

9. w Post hoc fallacy (post hoc ergo propter hoc) Occurs when the fact that one event occurred before another is uncritically taken as sufficient evidence that the earlier event caused the later event

10. Reasoning errors and patterns that don’t work well enough w Post hoc fallacy Occurs when the fact that one event occurred before another is uncritically taken as sufficient evidence that the earlier event caused the later event w Overlooking a common thread or cause

11. Reasoning errors and patterns that don’t work well enough w Post hoc fallacy Occurs when the fact that one event occurred before another is uncritically taken as sufficient evidence that the earlier event caused the later event w Overlooking a common thread or cause w Focusing on irrelevant threads or differences

12. Reasoning errors and patterns that don’t work well enough w Post hoc fallacy Occurs when the fact that one event occurred before another is uncritically taken as sufficient evidence that the earlier event caused the later event w Overlooking a common thread or cause w Focusing on irrelevant threads or differences w Overlooking possibility of reversed causation

13. Reasoning errors and patterns that don’t work well enough w Post hoc fallacy Occurs when the fact that one event occurred before another is uncritically taken as sufficient evidence that the earlier event caused the later event w Overlooking a common thread or cause w Focusing on irrelevant threads or differences w Overlooking possibility of reversed causation w Asserting a wrong common cause

14. Reasoning errors and patterns that don’t work well enough w Post hoc fallacy Occurs when the fact that one event occurred before another is uncritically taken as sufficient evidence that the earlier event caused the later event w Overlooking a common thread or cause w Focusing on irrelevant threads or differences w Overlooking possibility of reversed causation w Asserting a wrong common cause w Appealing to anecdotal evidence

15. Problems in causal reasoning

16. w Circularity Occurs when the statement of cause essentially restates the effect, typically as a definition or description Example: The explosion was caused by a rapid release of energy

17. Problems in causal reasoning w Circularity Occurs when the statement of cause essentially restates the effect, typically as a definition or description w Testability issues Occur when the statement of cause is inappropriately difficult or impossible to falsify Example (from the not-too-distant past): The illness is caused by tiny things that can't be seen. Note that this statement of cause turned out to be right in some cases, but one would need to do some good inductive reasoning to justify this conclusion.

18. Problems in causal reasoning w Circularity Occurs when the statement of cause essentially restates the effect, typically as a definition or description w Testability issues Occur when the statement of cause is inappropriately difficult or impossible to falsify w Specificity issues Occur when the statement of cause is inappropriately vague, especially from use of undefined terms Example: The illness is caused by a pathogenic agent.

19. Problems in causal reasoning w Circularity Occurs when the statement of cause essentially restates the effect, typically as a definition or description w Testability issues Occur when the statement of cause is inappropriately difficult or impossible to falsify w Specificity issues Occur when the statement of cause is inappropriately vague, especially from use of undefined terms w Inclusion of unnecessary assumptions

20. Problems in causal reasoning w Circularity Occurs when the statement of cause essentially restates the effect, typically as a definition or description w Testability issues Occur when the statement of cause is inappropriately difficult or impossible to falsify w Specificity issues Occur when the statement of cause is inappropriately vague, especially from use of undefined terms w Inclusion of unnecessary assumptions w Conflict with well-established theory Critical thinking theory places the burden of proof on new or unusual ideas

21. Causal reasoning alternatives w Materialism All events have at least one physical/material cause and no non-material cause w Single causation Every effect has one and only one unique cause w Dependent co-arising (Buddhist) At least two entities must participate in the causation of any phenomenon, which is made possible by the natures of the entities involved w Theory of changes (Chinese) Situations have essential structures that tend to change in patterned ways