1. Agricultural trade policies and development Incorporating institutional and dynamic aspects Niek Koning (WI), Roel Jongeneel (LEI), Giel Ton (LEI) & Prem Bindraban (PRI)

2. Kym Anderson: “developing countries benefit especially from own trade liberalization…” West African Farmers Network: “development requires raising ECOWAS external tariff…”

3. Standard trade model Assessments are based on computable general equilibrium models (like GTAP) Welfare benefit if consumer gain + producer gain > 0 –Each country is seen as one production and one consumption household –No attention to how benefits are distributed ‘Communicating vessels’ structure –Sectors as vessels, labour & capital as liquid –Static equilibrium –Removing bottlenecks leads to more balanced distribution of labour & capital over the system

4. Low world market prices Low domestic farm prices High population growth Soil exhaustion Rural poverty Land flight Jostling for public sector jobs Political market based on doling out public sector jobs Fiscal exploitation of farmers Low domestic demand Little industry for domestic market No domestic training school for export industry Rural strife Few non- farm jobs Erosion of social capital Urban strife But what if the dynamics look like this?

5. Regionally diverging patterns Balanced growth Agricultural revolution as starter of industrialization Developmental states with supportive farm policies Especially in regions with a long history of population growth, agricultural intensification, social differentiation & state formation Unbalanced growth Inequality, disarticulation & marginalization Oligarchic states with laissez faire farm policies Especially in regions with a history of large landowners versus rightless rural workers Involution Involution, poverty traps & stagnation Patrimonial states with fiscal exploitation of farmers (‘urban bias’) Especially in regions with undifferentiated peasant economies & personalist socio-political structures

6. Theses for discussion 1.Standard trade models that do not include institutions and dynamics are ill-suited to assess the effects of agricultural trade reforms in developing countries 2.Without looking to institutions and dynamics, the positions of developing countries in agricultural trade policy negotiations are hard to understand