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Performance Report Student Managed Fund MBA class of 2005 April 22, 2005.

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Presentation on theme: "Performance Report Student Managed Fund MBA class of 2005 April 22, 2005."— Presentation transcript:

1 Performance Report Student Managed Fund MBA class of 2005 April 22, 2005

2 2 MBA Fund Managers  Christophe Pane  Luis Prandini  Stephen Petretto  Igor Lemagic  Rajiv Iyer  Jie Wan  Ashley Martella  Yun Cai  Amit Kumar  Sampita Ray  Gabriel Joanes

3 3 Performance Highlights (Sept 24,2004 thru April 15,2005) SMF PORTFOLIO S & P 500 Portfolio Value (9/24/04)$410,918.251,110.11 Portfolio Value (4/15/05)$918,060.79(*)1,142.62 Holding Period Return (9/24/04 thru 4/15/05) 4.82%2.93% Annualized Return (%)8.67%5.27% Beta11 Annualized Standard Deviation 11.87%11.19% Sharpe Ratio**0.370.09 Treynor Index**4.431.02 Alpha3.38% *An additional $500,000 was added to the portfolio as of Jan,19 2005. **Based on risk- free rate of 4.23%.

4 4 Agenda  Economic Review  Investment Philosophy & Methodology  Portfolio Performance & Attribution Analysis  Lessons

5 5 The global economy should continue to expand at a brisk pace in 2005, but has become too reliant on demand in the U.S. and is increasingly vulnerable to damage from high oil prices. The global economic growth this year to be 4.3%, down from 5.1% in 2004. For 2006, the IMF predicted output would rise 4.4%. Oil prices would average $46.50 a barrel for 2005, up 23.2% from the prior year, and $43.75 in 2006. U.S. growth to 3.6% for both 2005 and 2006, an increase of 0.1 percentage point for both years. Possibility of a jump in U.S. interest rates and a drop in U.S. consumption, sparked either by inflation fears or an abrupt reversal of foreign capital flows to the U.S. The U.S. current account deficit - 5.7% of GDP in 2004 - probably won't improve much over the next couple of years, despite dollar depreciation. Economic Review IMF Global Outlook 2005

6 6 The sudden shift in mood and economic outlook – the market is riskier than thought. The Dow Jones Industrial Average last week recorded its steepest decline since 2003, dropping 3.6%. Investors finally seem to believe that high crude oil and gasoline prices are curtailing consumer spending, slowing economic growth and cutting into corporate earnings. Recent economic reports from the U.S. government portrayed sluggish job growth, weaker retail sales and a widening trade deficit only exacerbated by slowing American exports. Fed policy makers at their last meeting talked of solid economic conditions and feared that overstimulated growth could stoke inflation. The dollar rose in Europe as Asian stock markets slumped on signs of slower global growth. Economic Review U.S. Last Two Week

7 7 Investment Philosophy  Benchmark: S&P500 Index  Long-term (3-5 year) investment horizon  Fundamental analysis  Business models  Historical performance  Future Prospects  Valuation models

8 8  Top Down Approach  Blend Strategy  Combination of value and growth  Multi-Cap Fund Investment Strategy and Style Mid Caps 5 stocks Small Caps 1 stock Large Caps 23 stocks  Primarily investments in large-cap stocks Number of holdings as of 02/25/05: 29 Market Capitalization

9 9 Investment Methodology Sector Allocation Valuation Models PEG and P/E Models Dividend Discount Model Free Cash Flow Model Stock Selection Fundamental Analysis Business Model Analysis Ratio Analysis Future Prospects Top Down Approach

10 10 Management Style  Active Management  Report presentation and voting  Performance Monitoring  Stop Loss Measures (15%)  Appreciation Reevaluation (20%)  Continuous Monitoring & Dynamic Response

11 11 Sector Allocation (as of 04/15/2005) Top 5 sectors: Financials Industrials Consumer Disc. IT Health Care

12 12 Detailed Sector Allocation (as of 04/15/2005) * Best Performer until 02/11 TICKER TRADE DATE # SHARE S PURCHA SE PRICE CURRE NT PRICE CURRENT VALUE TOTAL % RETURN % OF PORTFOLIO as of 4/15 CONSUMER DICRETIONARY CMCS A 10/15/200 4875$30.13$32.45$28,393.757.57%3.10% HET 04/14/200 5500$71.20$67.61$33,805.00-5.08%3.68% HPOL 03/17/200 58000$4.65$4.26$34,080.00-8.44%3.71% HOT 12/28/200 4650$58.24$56.40$36,660.00-3.24%3.99% LGF02/11/20053000$10.42$9.59$28,770.00-8.00%3.13% PNRA 04/16/200 5345$56.00$54.69$18,868.05-2.40%2.06% VIAB 10/06/200 4500$35.21$34.12$17,060.00-3.22%1.85% CONSUMER STAPLES KO 09/22/200 4300$40.46$41.29$12,387.001.88%1.35% SYY 02/14/200 51000$35.16$35.00$35,000.00-0.49%3.81% WAG11/22/2004400$37.93$43.07$17,228.0013.42%1.88% ENERGY APA 02/22/200 5700$59.77$55.57$38,899.00-7.06%4.24% PTR 02/22/200 5500$60.20$60.33$30,165.000.13%3.28% VLO 10/27/200 4500$44.00$67.61$33,805.0053.52%3.68% XTO 03/17/200 5800$33.50$29.36$23,488.00 - 12.42%2.56%

13 13 Detailed Sector Allocation (as of 04/15/2005) TICKE R TRADE DATE # SHARE S PURCHA SE PRICE CURRE NT PRICE CURRENT VALUE TOTAL % RETURN % OF PORTFOLIO as of 4/15 FINANCIALS AMT D 02/14/200 51000$11.59$11.11$11,110.00-4.32%1.21% C 10/22/200 4500$42.80$45.75$22,875.006.79%2.49% CBH 12/22/200 41200$30.02$29.14$34,968.00-3.01%3.80% ING11/09/2004650$28.43$29.36$19,084.003.10%2.08% KRB 02/16/200 51525$26.01$23.45$35,761.25-9.89%3.90% HEALTHCARE AET 10/27/200 4400$44.71$70.67$28,268.0057.90%3.08% IVGN 02/14/200 5550$71.37$70.21$38,615.50-1.65%4.20% INDUSTRIALS DNB 02/15/200 5700$59.91$61.53$43,071.002.67%4.69% MAS 12/22/200 4500$36.46$32.65$16,325.00 - 10.55%1.78% MMM11/15/2004200$82.64$80.86$16,172.00-2.27%1.76% TYC 02/23/200 51200$33.57$31.33$37,596.00-6.70%4.10%

14 14 Detailed Sector Allocation (as of 04/15/2005) TICKE R TRADE DATE # SHARE S PURCHA SE PRICE CURRE NT PRICE CURRENT VALUE TOTAL % RETURN % OF PORTFOLIO as of 4/15 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY CSC O 12/03/200 41000$19.50$17.20$17,200.00-11.89%1.87% SAP 02/08/200 5750$39.24$36.96$27,720.00-5.85%3.02% MATERIALS PKX 03/02/200 5400$52.40$45.58$18,232.00 - 13.07%1.99% UTILITIES D11/23/2004150$66.71$73.58$11,037.0010.08%1.20% FPL 02/22/200 51000$39.11$39.94$39,940.002.10%4.35% CASH $111,477.24

15 15 Performance Highlights (Sept 24,2004 thru April 15,2005) SMF PORTFOLIO S & P 500 Portfolio Value (9/24/04)$410,918.251,110.11 Portfolio Value (2/11/05)$918,060.79(*)1,142.62 Holding Period Return (9/24/04 thru 4/15/05) 4.82%2.93% Annualized Return (%)8.67%5.27% Beta11 Annualized Standard Deviation 11.87%11.19% Sharpe Ratio**0.370.09 Treynor Index**4.431.02 Alpha3.38% *An additional $500,000 was added to the portfolio as of Jan,19 2005. **Based on risk- free rate of 4.23%.

16 16 Portfolio Performance Attribution Period: September 24, 2004 to April 15, 2005

17 17 Performance Comparison – Phased (Sept 24,2004 thru April 15,2005) *An additional $500,000 was added to the portfolio as of Jan,19 2005. PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS Dec 2004Feb 2005April 2005 Portfolio Value (9/24/04) $410,918.25 Portfolio Value $443,404.42$958,082.81$918,060.79 Holding Period Return 7.91%11.48%4.82% S&P Holding Period Return 7.30%8.57%2.93% Alpha5.77%4.67%3.38% Beta0.950.891.00

18 18 Performance Comparison – Phased (Sept 24,2004 thru April 15,2005) *An additional $500,000 was added to the portfolio as of Jan,19 2005. Alpha 0.25% Alpha 4.67% Alpha 3.38%

19 19 Performance - Last Six Weeks Outperformed during upturn Slightly underperformed during downturn

20 20 Sector Allocation - Last Six Weeks Energy and consumer discretionary took a hit amidst concerns of economic instability and falling crude oil prices Beta in last six weeks > 1. Averages to 1 over a longer period of time

21 21 Lessons Learned and Takeaways  Stop losses can sometimes work against you PFE, CACI  Have patience Market tends to overreact when it incorporates new information VLO  Stick with your strategy and convictions Don’t get emotional about stocks  Teamwork  Don’t forget Qualitative factors and be careful with assumptions

22 22 Lessons learned and Takeaways (cont)  Know what drives the stock Masco, Fedex  Accept the unexpected Pfizer, Lion’s Gate  Enjoy the opportunity while it lasts!

23 23 Thank you. University of Connecticut Foundation Inc. Investment Advisory Board Dr. Chinmoy Ghosh

24 24 Q & A ?


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