1. Llad Phillips1 Review for the Final: I Concepts and Analytics

2. Llad Phillips2 Part I Coordinating the Components of the Criminal Justice System Part II The Serious Offender

3. Llad Phillips3 Questions About Crime Can we explain trends in crime and trends in expenditure on the criminal justice system? Can we explain trends in crime and trends in expenditure on the criminal justice system? What is the right mix of enforcement and corrections? What is the right mix of enforcement and corrections?

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5. Crime Generation Crime Control Offense Rate Per Capita Expected Cost of Punishment Schematic of the Criminal Justice System Causes ?!! (detention, deterrence) Expenditures Weak Link “The Driving Force”

6. Llad Phillips6 Conclusions Causal conditions continue to get worse Causal conditions continue to get worse As a consequence we have to spend more real dollars per person to keep crime levels from rising As a consequence we have to spend more real dollars per person to keep crime levels from rising Crime acts like a tax Crime acts like a tax  Californians spend $450 (1992$) per person on criminal justice to keep things from getting worse

7. Llad Phillips7 Question What happened around 1980 to differentiate the 50’s, 60’s, and 70’s from the 80’s and 90’s? What happened around 1980 to differentiate the 50’s, 60’s, and 70’s from the 80’s and 90’s?  was there a change in behavior?  was there a change in policy?

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10. 10 Law Enforcement Prosecution CourtsPublic Defense State PrisonsOther Corrections

11. Llad Phillips11 Abstraction (Model) of the Criminal Justice System Enforcement Prosecution Defense Courts State Prisons New Admits Mean Years Served

12. Llad Phillips12 Admits per Year per capita average years served Tradeoff Between Criminal Justice System Outputs  tan  = admits per year per capita/average years served

13. Llad Phillips13 Capital constraint admits per capita per year * average years served = prisoners per capita admits per capita per year * average years served = prisoners per capita Prisoners per capita is limited by prison capacity Prisoners per capita is limited by prison capacity If you increase admits per capita per year, then average years served decreases until prison capacity catches up If you increase admits per capita per year, then average years served decreases until prison capacity catches up

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15. Llad Phillips15 45 degrees Constraint: Admits per year*Average years served = Prisoners Average Years Served Admits per Year Coordinating CJS

16. Llad Phillips16 Admits per Year per capita, AD average years served, S A Shifting Mix In Criminal Justice System Outputs  tan  = admits per year per capita/average years served  Facts 1. spend more 2. Admit more 3. shorter time served   Prison Capacity Constraint

17. 1952 1986 1994 1975

18. Llad Phillips18 Part II The Serious Offender The Serious Offender  a few serious criminals account for most crimes  if free, each serious offender would commit crimes at the rate of  per year  if there are N serious offenders, they would commit *N offenses per year, if free  if there are PR serious offenders in prison, then we save *PR offenses per year  the net observed offenses per year is:  OF = *N - *PR = (N -AD*S)

19. Llad Phillips19 Population Serious Offenders, N Prisoners, PR

20. Llad Phillips20 Population Serious Offenders, N Prisoners, PR If the Serious Offender Population grows faster than the Prison Population then crime gets worse

21. Llad Phillips21 Likelihood of Going to Prison in a Lifetime 1/4 1/6 1/23 1/10 For Newborn Prevalence of Imprisonment in the U. S. Population, 1974-01 Source:

22. Llad Phillips22 Social Control Population Formerly In 10% In

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24. Llad Phillips24 Social Control of Citizenry Civil law and authority Civil law and authority  First line of defense: moral compliance and good citizenship  Second line of defense: deterrence (the threat of punishment)  Third line of defense: detention Martial law and authority Martial law and authority  Fourth line of defense: National Guard and the Army

25. Llad Phillips25 Percent Control    Moral Compliance DeterrenceDetention Riot Civil Law Martial Law National Guard

26. Llad Phillips26 Is Criminal Justice Just?

27. Llad Phillips27 Questions About Crime Are there Inequities by Income class? Are there Inequities by Income class?  for victims? Are there ethnic or racial injustices? Are there ethnic or racial injustices?  for victims?  for offenders?

29. US Family Income, 1994 Source: US Statistical Abstract

30. Llad Phillips30 Why is Income Distributed So Unevenly? Labor Income is Unevenly Distributed Labor Income is Unevenly Distributed Part-time work Part-time work  less than 50 weeks per year  less than 36 hours per week

32. Victimization Rates by Income Class Source: Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice, Second edition

34. Crime Housing Value % Zoned for Lots > 25,000 Sq. Ft. Census Tracts in Towns in the Boston Area

35. Public Goods and Private Goods Private Goods Private Goods  consumption uses them up  what you eat is not available to nourish others Public Goods Public Goods  consumption does not use them up  national defense  safe streets  educated citizenry

36. Public  Goods Private Goods Optimal Mix Too Few Public Goods Slope of the Production PossibilityFrontier: Marginal Cost of Public Goods ÷ Marginal Cost of Private Goods How Much Government Should There Be? What is the right mix of public goods and private goods?

37. Llad Phillips37 The Family and Delinquency

38. Llad Phillips38 The Family and Delinquency What is the role of the family in causing or preventing delinquency? What is the role of the family in causing or preventing delinquency? How important is the family in considering possible causes of delinquency? How important is the family in considering possible causes of delinquency?

39. Source: Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families, Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, eds. James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury

40. Father’s Income R J Daughter’s Income A If the father is sufficiently altruistic, then the daughter’s enlightened self-interest is to prefer point A, and she can be induced to behave in a cooperative way, allowing point J that leads to point A

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42. Llad Phillips42 Where does Criminal Justice go from here? California California  Strong economy leads to lower property crime rates  Higher imprisonment rates lead to lower rates of violent crime National Policy National Policy  Drug treatment programs  Eisenhower Report(1999): More Prevention

43. Llad Phillips43 Rearrest rates for CA prison Inmates rise to 67% within 3 years after release.