1. Pacific Northwest Climate Model Scenarios 2008 Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Eric Salathé Philip Mote Valérie Dulière Emily Jump

2. 19 Models From IPCC Fourth Assessment nationalitymodelequilibrium sensitivityTCR BCCRn.a. CCSM32.71.5 CGCM (T47)3.41.9 CGCM (T63)3.4n.a. CNRMn.a.1.6 CSIRO3.11.4 ECHAM53.42.2 ECHO-G3.21.7 FGOALS2.31.2 GFDL-CM2.02.91.6 GFDL-CM2.13.41.5 GISS-AOMn.a. GISS-ER2.71.5 HADCM33.32.0 HADGEM14.41.9 INMCM2.11.6 IPSL4.42.1 MIROC4.02.1 MIROC-hires4.32.6 PCM2.11.3

3. Biases (20th c, minus NCEP)

4. 20th century seasonal cycle

5. 20th century trend

6. Observed Sea level pressure (NCEP)

7. Model Performance observed

8. Ranked Model Performance

9. Emissions scenarios IPCC Fourth Assessment Global

10. PNW Temperature Change 10°F 0°F

11. Scenario Selection - T/P Scatter

12. 2040s - 1980s PNW

13. Projected Temperature temperature2020s2040s (°C)oldnewoldnew lowest0.40.60.80.9 average1.11.2*1.62.0* highest1.81.92.62.9

14. Projected Precipitation precipitation2020s2040s %oldnewoldnew lowest-4-9-4-11 average21*22* highest6129

15. Future Storm Track Changes North America Asia Europe NP Stronger N Atlantic Storm track Stronger N Pacific Storm track ULBRICH ET AL. 2008 Change from 1960-2000 to 2080-2100 Composite of 16 Global Climate Models

16. IPSL ECHAM5 SRES A1BSRES B1 CCSM3 Percentages of change in the annual maximum daily precipitation with a 10 years return period for each grid cell between 1981-2000 and 2046-2065. +12.2% +18.8% +11.4% +10.8% +11.8% +10.6% Projected Future Changes from Climate Models (2046-2065 versus 1981-2000)

17. Global models must be downscaled for regional studies

18. Downscaling -- Winter

19. Downscaling -- Summer

20. Mesoscale Climate Model  Based on Regional Weather Model (MM5, WRF)  Nested grids 135-45-15 km  Advanced land-surface model (NOAH)  Forced by Global Climate Model output (boundary conditions)

21. observed sea level rise 1961-2003 1993-2003 1961-2003 1993-2003

22. Projected global SLR 2090s

23. Local vertical land motion Verdonck (2006) Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array

24. SLR Estimate Components20502100 NW Olympic Peninsula Central & Southern Coast Puget Sound NW Olympic Peninsula Central & Southern Coast Puget Sound Very Low Global SLR9 cm18 cm Atm. Dynamics-1 cm- 2 cm VLM-20 cm- 5cm0 cm- 40 cm-10 cm0 cm Total-12 cm (-5”)3 cm (1”)8 cm (3”)-24 cm (-9”)6 cm (2”)16 cm (6”) Medium Global SLR15 cm34 cm Atm. Dynamics0 cm VLM- 15 cm- 2.5 cm0 cm-30 cm- 5 cm0 cm Total0 cm (0”)12.5 cm (5”)15 cm (6”)4 cm (2”)29 cm (11”)34 cm (13”) Very High Global SLR38 cm93 cm Atm. Dynamics7 cm15 cm VLM-10 cm0 cm10 cm- 20 cm0 cm20 cm Total35 cm (14”)45 cm (18”)55 cm (22”)88 cm (35”)108 cm (43”)128 cm (50”)

25. Summary Temp and precip: central values roughly the same as 2005 estimates 0.5F/decade warming and little change in annual total precip Increased likelihood of drier summers, wetter winters, heavy rains Range of projected temp, precip, sea level: no problem to serious consequences