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Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   The Game of Chaos Peter.

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Presentation on theme: "Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   The Game of Chaos Peter."— Presentation transcript:

1 Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   The Game of Chaos Peter van Emde Boas ILLC-WINS-UvA Plantage Muidergracht 24 1018 TV Amsterdam peter@wins.uva.nl Evert van Emde Boas Lord Trevor Productions Franz Lisztlaan 5 2102 CJ Heemstede 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht 19990408 © Wizards of the Coast, inc.

2 Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   The Game of Chaos Sorry: it is a French Card Game of Chaos Sorcery Play head or tails against a target opponent. The looser of the game looses one life. The winner of the game gains one life, and may choose to repeat the procedure. For every repetition the ante in life is doubled. © Wizards of the Coast, inc.

3 Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   Magic; the Gathering Customizable card game: build a deck using a very large collection of available cards. Both players start out with 20 lives. Number of lives ≤ 0 means you have lost the duel. Move = playing land, casting a spell, combat,.... Attack: summoning creatures, damaging spells, damaging effects Defense: Blocking attacking creatures, protecting spells and effects Spells require Mana obtained by tapping lands or activating other Mana sources. Mana exists in 5 colors and a generic variant. Spells exist in the same 5 colors or a generic variant (artifacts) For almost every rule in the game there exists a card creating an exception against it when successfully cast.....

4 Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   Game Trees Root Thorgrim’s turn Urgat’s turn Terminal node Non Zero-Sum Game: Payoffs explicitly designated at terminal node 2 / 0 5 / -71 / 4 -1 / 4 3 / 1 -3 / 21 / -1

5 Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   Backward Induction 2 / 0 5 / -71 / 4 -1 / 4 3 / 1 -3 / 21 / -1 2 / 0 3 / 1 1 / 4 -3 / 2 1 / 4 At terminal nodes: Pay-off as explicitly given At Thorgrim’s nodes: Pay-off inherited from Thorgrim’s optimal choice At Urgat’s nodes: Pay-off inherited from Urgat’s optimal choice For strictly competitive games this is the Max-Min rule T TU U T UT T T U U U

6 Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   CHANCE MOVES Chance moves controlled by another player (Nature) who is not interested in the result Nature is bound to choose his moves fairly with respect to commonly known probabilities Resulting outcomes for active players become lotteries

7 Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   Lotteries price prob. $3 1/3 $12 1/6 -$2 1/2 Expectation: 1/2. -2 + 1/6. 12 + 1/3. 3 = 2

8 Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   Compound Lottery price prob. $3 1/3 $12 1/6 -$2 1/2 $3 1/2 -$2 1/2 1/54/5 price prob. $3 7/15 $12 1/30 -$2 1/2 In compound lotteries all drawings are assumed to be independent

9 Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   Flipping a coin HEADSTAILS 1 / -1-1/ 1 1 / -1 hhtt 1/2 Expectation0 / 0 Thorgrim calls head or tails and Urgat flips the coin. Urgat’s move is irrelevant. Nature determines the outcome.

10 Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   The Game Tree 0 1 3 -3 1 7 3-55-31-7 7-911-55-119-7 3 3 / -3 1/2 Denotes X Y Y X Thorgrim and Urgat both start with 5 lives

11 Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   WHY UTILITY FUNCTIONS? Backward Induction is based on preferences rather than numbers Numbers as a tool for expressing preferences works OK when chance moves are absent We like to compute expected pay-off at chance nodes. Expected pay-off is sensitive to scaling Comparing complex lotteries is non-trivial

12 Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   Comparing Complex Lotteries Allais Example 010 0.010.890.10 0.890.110 0.900.1 $0M$1M$5M$0M$1M$5M $0M$1M$5M$0M$1M$5M ??

13 Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   Von Neumann-Morgenstern Utility Rational Players may be assumed to maximize the expectation of Something. Let’s call this Something Utility. Works nice for 2-outcome Lotteries: Something = chance of winning. So let’s reduce the n-outcome Lotteries to 2-outcome Compound Lotteries: Each intermediate outcome is “equivalent” to a suitable 2-outcome Lottery. The involved chance determines the Utility.

14 Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   Utility Intermediate Outcome WL p1-p p := u(L) = a u(W) = b u(D) = x a < b D Lot-1Lot-3 E E Lot-1 ( u ) = p.b + (1-p).a E E Lot-3 ( u ) = x If p is large (almost 1) : Lot-1 > Lot-3 For p small (almost 0) : Lot-1 < Lot-3 So for some intermediate p, say q: Lot-1 ≈ Lot-3 q q ≈ Lot-3 whence u(D) = q.b + (1-q).a !

15 Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   Utility Lottery = Expected Utility Outcomes p1p1 pnpn 11 nn ii pipi p1p1 pnpn pipi WL qiqi 1-q i WL  p i q i 1-  p i q i ≈ u(W) = 1, u(L) = 0, u(  i ) = q i E  p i q i = u(Lot-3) =  p i u(  i ) = E Lot-1 u(outcome) Lot-1 Lot-2 Lot-3 ≈

16 Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   Game of Chaos 3 3 / -3 1/2 Denotes X Y Y X Structure of the game tree independent of the choice of the utilities. u T,1 : u T,1 (n) = n u T,2 : u T,2 (n) = if n ≥ v opp then 1 elif n ≤ - v self then -1 else 0 fi u U,1 : u U,1 (n) = -n u U,2 : u U,2 (n) = if n ≥ v self then - 1 elif n ≤ - v opp then 1 else 0 fi © Wizards of the Coast, inc.

17 Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   Linear Utilities 0/00/0 -1/11/-1 3/-3 7/-7 -1/1 1/-1-3/3 -1/1 -9/9 3/-3 11/-11 5/-5 1/-1 -7/7 -11/119/-9 -5/5 Both Thorgrim and Urgat use utility u 1 Thorgrim and Urgat both start with 5 lives

18 Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   Go for the Kill! 0 1 3 -3 1 7 3-55-31-7 7-911-55-119-7 1/-1 0/00/0 0/00/0 0/00/0 0/00/0 0/00/00/00/00/00/0.5/-.5 -.5/.5 -1/1 Both Thorgrim and Urgat use utility u 2 Thorgrim and Urgat both start with 5 lives

19 Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   Mixed Utilities 0 1 3 -3 1 7 3-55-31-7 7-911-55-119-7 1/-7 1/-111/-71/-51/-9 1/-5 0/10/1 0/-1 0/00/0 0/10/1 0/-30/30/30/-1.5/-3.5/-1-.5/1 -.5/3 -1/9-1/5-1/11-1/7 -1/5-1/7 Thorgrim uses u 2 ; Urgat uses u 1 Thorgrim and Urgat both start with 5 lives

20 Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   Winning is all 0 1 3 -3 1 7 3-55-31-7 7-911-55-119-7 1/01/0 1/01/01/01/01/01/01/01/0 1/01/0.5/.5.75/.25.25/.75 0/10/10/10/10/10/10/10/1 0/10/10/10/1 Utilities: Thorgrim uses u 3,T : u 3.T (n) = if n ≥ v opp then 1 else 0 fi Urgat uses u 3,U : u 3.U (n) = if - n ≥ v opp then 1 else 0 fi.5/.5 Thorgrim and Urgat both start with 5 lives

21 Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   Unequal Start 0 1 3 -3 1 7 3-55-31-7 7-911-55-119-7 1/-1 0/00/0.25/-.25 0/00/0 0/00/0 0/00/00/00/0.5/-.5 -.5/.5 -1/1 Thorgrim: 6 lives Urgat: 4 lives utilities used u 2 3-13 -2111 17-13 -1/1 1/-1 -1/1 0/00/0.5/-.5 0/00/0.125/-.125

22 Game of Chaos: 35e Nederlands Mathematisch Congres Utrecht; 19990408   Thorgrim’s last stand 0 1 3 7 Thorgrim: 1 live Urgat: 6 lives Utilities: Thorgrim uses u 3 : u 3 (n) = if n ≥ v opp then 1 else 0 fi Urgat uses u 2 1/-10/10/1.5/0 0/10/1 0/10/1.25/.5.125/.75

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Dependent and Independent Events. If you have events that occur together or in a row, they are considered to be compound events (involve two or more separate.
Peter van Emde Boas: Playing Savage SOFSEM 2000 Milovy PLAYING SAVITCH Peter van Emde Boas ILLC-FNWI-Univ. of Amsterdam Bronstee.com Software and Services.

Peter van Emde Boas: Playing Savage SOFSEM 2000 Milovy PLAYING SAVITCH Peter van Emde Boas ILLC-FNWI-Univ. of Amsterdam Bronstee.com Software and Services.
Peter van Emde Boas: Imperfect Information Games; what makes them Hard to Analyze. IMPERFECT INFORMATION GAMES; what makes them Hard to Analyze ? Peter.

Peter van Emde Boas: Imperfect Information Games; what makes them Hard to Analyze. IMPERFECT INFORMATION GAMES; what makes them Hard to Analyze ? Peter.
Probability And Expected Value ————————————

Probability And Expected Value ————————————

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