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Recap of Water Year 2008 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2009 Francisco Munoz-Arriola Alan F. Hamlet Shraddhanand Shukla Dennis P. Lettenmaier.

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Presentation on theme: "Recap of Water Year 2008 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2009 Francisco Munoz-Arriola Alan F. Hamlet Shraddhanand Shukla Dennis P. Lettenmaier."— Presentation transcript:

1 Recap of Water Year 2008 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2009 Francisco Munoz-Arriola Alan F. Hamlet Shraddhanand Shukla Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington

2 Recap of WY 2008

3 ECMRWF ENSO anomaly 2008 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

4

5 Validation Plot for 2008 Forecast (All Cool ENSO composite) Modified Flow (cfs) The Dalles

6 1916-2002 April-September Naturalized Flow for the Columbia River at The Dalles, OR from Historic Water Years vs January Nino 3.4 Anomalies.

7 Natural Flows at Milner 1928-1989

8 Natural Flow (KAF) Red = long term mean Blue = ensemble mean Gray = ensemble members Black = range of observations Simulated Natural Flow at Milner (ESP all years) Milner

9 Natural Flow (KAF) Red = long term mean Blue = ensemble mean Gray = ensemble members Black = range of observations Simulated Natural Flow at Milner (ESP cool ENSO) Milner

10 WY 2008 Forecast

11 WY 2007WY 2008 Potential Implications of ENSO Transition States WY 2009

12 http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/season al_range_forecast/nino_plumes_public_s3/ European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMRWF ENSO anomaly 2009 0.2 -0.6

13 1916-2002 April-September Naturalized Flow for the Columbia River at The Dalles, OR from Historic Water Years vs January Nino 3.4 Anomalies.

14 Natural Flows at Milner 1928-1989

15 West-Wide Hydrologic Forecast

16 UW Forecast Approach Schematic NCDC COOP station obs. up to 3 months from current local scale (1/8 degree) weather inputs soil moisture snowpack VIC Hydrologic model spin up SNOTEL Update streamflow, soil moisture, snow water equivalent, runoff 25 th Day, Month 0 1-2 years back index stn. real-time met. forcings for spin-up gap Hydrologic forecast simulation Month 12 INITIAL STATE Observed SWE Assimilation ensemble forecasts ESP traces CPC-based outlook NCEP CFS ensemble NSIPP-1 ensemble West-wide System

17 Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) ICsSpin-upForecast observed recent met data to generate “perfect” ICs ensemble of historical met data to generate ensemble forecast hydrologic state Applications: climate forecast

18 Soil Moisture and Snow Water Anomalies

19 SWE and SM Simulated Climatological March April February

20 SWE and SM Simulated Climatological MarchFebruaryApril JulyAugustSeptember

21 Based on Milner Climatology 1960-2005 All Years Ensemble Mean Climatological Mean Ensemble Members Climatological Extremes

22 Based on Dalles Climatology 1901-2005 All Years Ensemble Mean Climatological Mean Ensemble Members Climatological Extremes

23 Based on Milner Climatology 1960-2005 ENSO-Neutral Years Ensemble Mean Climatological Mean Ensemble Members Climatological Extremes

24 Based on Dalles Climatology 1901-2005 ENSO-Neutral Years Ensemble Mean Climatological Mean Ensemble Members Climatological Extremes

25 3.4 Range 2009 -0.6 to 0.2 Based on Milner Climatology 1901-2005 Ensemble Mean Climatological Mean Ensemble Members Climatological Extremes

26 3.4 Range 2009 -0.6 to 0.2 Based on Dalles Climatology 1901-2005 Ensemble Mean Climatological Mean Ensemble Members Climatological Extremes

27 West-Wide Hydrologic Forecast

28 West Wide Forecast (1961-2000) All Years Ensemble Mean Climatological Mean Ensemble Members Climatological Extremes ENSO-years Mean (N) Milner

29 West Wide Forecast (1961-2000) All Years Ensemble Mean Climatological Mean Ensemble Members Climatological Extremes ENSO-years Mean (N) Dalles

30 ENSO-Neutral Years West Wide Forecast (1961-2000) Ensemble Mean Climatological Mean Ensemble Members Climatological Extremes ENSO-years Mean (N) Milner

31 ENSO-Neutral Years West Wide Forecast (1961-2000) Ensemble Mean Climatological Mean Ensemble Members Climatological Extremes ENSO-years Mean (N) Dalles

32 3.4 Range 2009 -0.6 to 0.2 West Wide Forecast (1961-2000) Ensemble Mean Climatological Mean Ensemble Members Climatological Extremes ENSO-years Mean (N) Milner

33 3.4 Range 2009 -0.6 to 0.2 West Wide Forecast (1961-2000) Ensemble Mean Climatological Mean Ensemble Members Climatological Extremes ENSO-years Mean (N) Dalles

34 UW Forecast System in the Snake River Hells Canyon Dam Milner

35 UW Forecast System in the Hydropower-related stations at the Columbia River Grand Coulee Chief Joseph Dam

36 Conclusions: Cool ENSO event during the winter of 2007-2008, increased above average Apr-Sep flow at Milner High snowpack during winter-spring was associated with low values in soil moisture The WY 2008 ESP forecast predicted increased likelihood of wet conditions. Observed summer flows at Milner in 2007 were above average (~25% of normal for April-Sept) Current soil moisture conditions may contribute to slightly reduce streamflow generation during the Jan-June period by 3%. The west-wide forecast system predicts flows similar to those observed in the climatologies for the Dalles, However for the Milner stations there is a increased likelihood of drought and consequently flows slight below normal for the coming water year. Slightly below 1961-2000 climatological values Slightly above -0.6-to-0.2 ENSO neutral values On the average of ENSO neutral years

37 WY 2007WY 2008 Potential Implications of ENSO Transition States

38 19041.47 19071.00 19211.00 19250.49 19320.39 19430.88 19650.90 19711.55 19742.22 19840.58 1989-0.40 19960.93 19990.89 Historic Dalles Apr-Sept streamflow anomalies for water years with previous winter warm ENSO, current winter cool ENSO Stats: 12 of 13 above 0.39 11 of 13 above 0.49 9 of 13 above 0.88 WYStd Ann.

39 Natural Streamflow (cfs) Based on Dalles Climatology 1901-2003

40 1932-0.235 19431.137 19651.238 19712.170 19741.686 19841.883 1989-0.080 Historic Milner Apr-Sept streamflow anomalies for water years with previous winter warm ENSO, current winter cool ENSO WYStd Ann. Stats: 5 of 7 above 1.1 3 of 7 above 1.7

41 enso_2008enso_trans_2008 Based on Milner ESP 1961-2000 Natural Flow (KAF)

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