1. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 1 Extrapolating Trends for Information Technology Gio Wiederhold Stanford University September 1999 Based on “Trends for Information Technology” 1999 www-db.stanford.edu/pub/gio/1999/miti.htm

2. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 2 T r e n d s 1998 : 1999 Users of the Internet 40% Ü 52% of U.S. population Growth of Net Sites (now 2.2M public sites with 288M pages) Expected growth in E-commerce by Internet users [BW, 6 Sep.1999] segment 1998 1999 –books 7.2% Ü 16.0% –music & video 6.3% Ü 16.4% –toys 3.1% Ü 10.3% –travel 2.6% Ü 4.0% –tickets 1.4% Ü 4.2% –Overall 8.0% Ü 33.0% = $9.5Billion An unstainable trend cannot be sustained [Herbert Stein] Ü new services 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 0.3 1 3 9 27 81 ** 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Year / % Ü % Ü Centroid, in 1999 ~1% of total market E-penetration Toys

3. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 3 Interactions Consumer Pull Research & Inno- vation Tool building Product building & marketingGeneral Technology Push Business needs Government responsibilities Information Technology

4. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 4 Assumptions Hardware technology will continue to lead and encourage broader usage Communication technology will continue to lead and become more economical User interfaces will improve and not be a barrier to the acceptance of technology Government policies will not hinder open interaction - or not be able to

5. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 5 The Problem of Information Growth: " We are drowning in information but starved for knowledge. This level of information is clearly impossible to be handled by present means. Uncontrolled and unorganized information is no longer a resource in an information society, instead it becomes the enemy." -- John Naisbitt, author of 1982 bestseller Megatrends... and it’s not getting better Dealing with this issue requires Precision: Helpful for casual users Essential for business

6. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 6 Precision in: Search for Information –recall versus precision Relevance of Information for the Customer –modeling the customer Meaning of the Information –resolving semantic mismatch Timeliness of Information –resolving temporal mismatch Service model to achieve these objectives services add value by increasing precision

7. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 7 Search techniques to add value Yahoo catalogues and organizes useful web sites. Junglee integrates diverse sources. AltaVista automatically surfs and indexes the web. Excite also tracks queries and classifies customers. Firefly provides customer control over their profiles. Cookies track users’ activities between sessions. Alexa collects webpages and their usage. Google ranks the reference importance of web pages....

8. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 8 Problems for search engines and progress Unsuitable source representations part classification: HTML --- XML print formats: postscript, adobe PDF non-text: images, sound, video hidden in databases behind CGI scripts Inconsistent semantics context distinct / scope / view Naïve modeling of customers roles & growth Search engines cannot solve all problems Being improved. Rate?

9. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 9 The world wide information network and its participants External: sources and / or sinks Internal: transformers and memory. _ …. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ data, meta-data, knowledge

10. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 10 Understand the Architecture for Information Technology: Sources Services Customers Sources Services Customers Component Classification

11. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 11 Specifications for the components Sources Services Customers Sources Services Customers Metadata Customer models Catalogs Content & Methods Progress

12. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 12 Functional Service Layers Service Serviceinterface Resource access interface interface User interface Real-world interface interface Human-computer Interaction Interaction Application- specific code specific code Domain- specific specific code code Source- specific specific code code MEDIATION Services Services Available Sources Client

13. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 13 Modeling: sources Models provide abstractions abstractions represent a point of view Models of databases are schemas and E-R models well established constraints - references, uniqueness scopes remain implicit Information systems have meta-data XML has DTD’s under discussion, still limited Focus on resources Meta data

14. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 14 Customer models Customer is a person 6 one specific task arranging a vacation trip activity ˆ location town ˆ hotel by grade ˆ flight ˆ public transport ˆ rented car arranging a business trip location ˆ hotel by plan ˆ flight ˆ taxi or rented car getting a computer for Joe Cheap search CPU by price ˆ modem ˆ display getting a computer for Peter Fast search CPU by speed ˆ storage ˆ display ˆ network â Hierarchical â alternatives at each level ( evaluate, commit, rollback )

15. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 15 Personal vs. Customer Model Actual Person has multiple roles â how to switch â explicitly â implicitly â keep past contexts Switching rate will differ work versus fun adequacy of models

16. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 16 Service layer Customer Service Resourceaccess MEDIATION Multiple domains ! Shared software, standards ?

17. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 17 Value-added intermediate services 1 Filters attached to the customer model; balance relevant volume and precision Wrap resources to make them compatible, exploit wrapper templates, skip unavailable sources Match available metadata and indices of resource contents to leaf nodes in the customer model Monitor and index public metadata, describe resource capabilities, contents & methods Needs Technologies extant and new Describe customer model Discover new resources Select relevant resources Easy access to resources Filter out excessive data Build interpretable workflow model with meta-specifications for selection

18. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 18 Value-added intermediate services 2 Automatic abstraction to match sources at articulation points within the customer model Attach data instances to articulation points, combine elements, link to customer model Match data for content, omit overlap, report inconsistencies in overlapping sources Summarize according to customer model, rank information at each level Present information according to model hierarchy, consider bandwidth Needs Technologies, extant and new Identify articulations * Match level of detail * Integrate information Omit redundant data, documents Reduce customer overload Inform customer Matching of related concepts, use articulation rules to match nodes

19. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 19 Abstraction layers differ: Example in medical research Individual patient records Family based genetic traces Disease-based summaries Genetically-linked disease data Ligand-based genomic segments Aggregated gene sequences 3-D configurations of segments Drug-gene interactions All have their own hierarchies, roots

20. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 20 Combining the models * Identify articulations Match customer and resource terms semantic mismatches thesauri, matching rules Match level of detail Match customer and resource values, summarize numbers, result ranks completeness, unit mismatches, text indicate constraints in models textual abstraction input for visualization

21. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 21 Mediator Service Design Principle Transform Data into Information Match User Model Hierarchical to Resource Model General network (and maintain models)

22. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 22 Result modes for ranking Databases: Completeness All the answers Prolog Correctness The first answer Optimization The best one Assumes all factors are known, no human decision Customer: wants choices explanation background

23. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 23 Ranking Qualitative Significant Differences: in terms of the customer model Plan 1. UA59 dep.Wash.Dulles 17:10, arr. LAX 19:49 Plan 2. AA75 dep.Wash.Dulles 18:00, arr. LAX 20:10 Plan 3. UA119 dep.Wash.Dulles 9:25, arr. LAX 12:00 Busy Joe: P1= P2, P3 Speedy Mike: P2, P1=P3 Greedy Pete: P1=P3, P2

24. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 24 Mediation for Quality User Model f(S,C,T) Assessments: S 1 =.8 S 2 =.9 S 3 =8 User Model f(S,C,T) Assessments: S 1 =.8 S 2 =.9 S 3 =8 BEST= low cost rapid response reliable delivery trustworthiness C 3 = 10+_1 T 3 =50+_80 Estimates: C 1 = 5+_1 T 1 =100+_160 C 2 = 8+_1 T 2 =70+_30 S1S1 S3S3 S2S2 S= source reliability C= confidence T=

25. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 25 Computing Projections time past now future 01.3 Next period alternatives and subsequent periods 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.25 0.1 0.05 0.3 0.07 0.3 For decision-making: not just past data Integrate simulation results into information systems: SQL SimQL

26. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 26 Extending the support into the future Must manage multiple projected futures --- Novel tools needed to help the decision maker: 1. Assess the likelihood of a branch being taken (if not controlable) 2. Compute probabilities into the future, up to desired/final endpoints 3. Compute results at each node, by backtracking from the endpoints and considering the probabilities 4. Compare the associated costs and benefits for the alternatives at any future time 5. Recalculate to get new, better values, less uncertainty Trim or summarize unlikely branches to reduce the complexity Prune to the current state and delete all but one actual path

27. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 27 Architecture instances Applications.... Mediators...... Resources... _ …. ….. _ …. ….. _ …. ….. include computational resources

28. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 28 Assigning maintenance responsibility a. Source data quality – supplier database, files, or web pages b. Interface to the source – wrapper, supplier or vendor for supplier c. Source selection – expert specialist in mediator d. Source quality assessment – customer input to mediator e. Semantic interoperation – specialist group providing input to the mediator f. Consistency and metadata information – mediator service operation or warehouse g. Informal, pragmatic integration – client services with customer input h. User presentation formats – client services with customer input Services Sources Customers

29. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 29 Summary To sustain the trend 1. The value of the results has to keep increasing precision, relevance not volume 2. Value is provided by experts, encoded as models of diverse resources, customers Problems to be addressed mismatches quality temporal extensions maintenance } Clear models

30. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 30 Technology Transition. Economic drivers have to be considered. Three party model Industry: need-based invention academia: formalization innovators: new technology New Service models provide new Opportunities supply innovative tools to industry supply specialized information to industry I i a

31. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 31 Understanding the other parties Motivation is profit and loss avoidance of Industry: investment -- –payoff to stockholders / retain value / stable Academia: prestige -- (leads to continuing funding) –visibility, not stability or reliability Innovative businesses: leverage -- not sustainable –low downside cost, high upside risk, –change expected and needed Government research: – technology dissemination & shelving service ?

32. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 32 Research economy transfer paths Products Tool suppliers (TS) versus Product suppliers (PS) high-value modest volume Customers Research Government Teaching Taxes high volume people results

33. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 33 Operating Systems Microsoft Windows, personal computer and WS. proprietary product, no obligations to hardware, rapidly adapted to new requirements UNIX, an open systems, consensus and takes time. SUN servers LINUX clients and servers, free, low entry cost …. Mainframe operating systems, little growth expected VMS (COMPAQ) reliable 24 hour / 7 day

34. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 34 1 Pre-competitive development. 2 Integration and Marketing 3. Problem: Asynchrony. 3.1 Industry-driven. research. 3.2 Curiosity-driven research. 3.3 Fundamental research 3.4 Transition windows 4 Transition agents. 4.1 Link academic researchers to industry 4.2 Link academic and industrial research. 4.3 Startup companies. 4.4 Incubator services. 4.5 Research stores. Commercial Technology Transfer Company. Governmental Technology Transfer Institute. Other candidate organization models for research stores. 5 Research Venues and Technology Transfer. 6 Summary

35. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 35 Alternative solutions A Super Database –unwieldly –obsolete before it is established Distributed, free standing databases (today) –awkward for sharing information (much knowledge derives from the intersections) –hyperlinks and shared references allow navigation Distributed databases with a single standard allowing interoperation –standards follow progress, cannot lead it Distributed databses with published formats –requires rapid adaptation to keep up with resources (but the number of resources per project will be limited) with mediators to isolate projects from resources

36. Oct 1999 Gio XIT 36 Paying Free goods (as information), supported by advertisers The referred service pays for references made After contact and selection direct by credit card at some processing overhead and delay Customer trust for tolerable losses Audited ba mediator, violators are blacklisted only Escrow for substantial value: more delay Very small transactions use wallets a.Risk is assumed by the vendor: b.Risk is assumed by the customer: Subscriptions for long-term interactions