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Latin America: Argentina & Brazil Past, Present & Future
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Latin America 10,000 Km = Nagoya to Paris
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One Subcontinent 562 million people 20 Countries U$ 3.3 trillion GDP Spanish, Portuguese, French languages Resource rich (oil, land, water, minerals) Under colonial rule from XVI to XIX century Indians, Europeans, Africans, Asians (Chinese and Japanese) Brazil & Peru: largest nikkei communities in the world
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Differences Colonial history People Culture Political regimes Economic structure Soccer skills!
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Inner differences… Colonization schemes Aborigines, immigrants Individualism Cultural values Political regimes Economic structure Soccer skills!
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Latin America Today General Scenario Democracy (more than 10-20 years) Market economies (except socialism oriented Cuba & Venezuela) (Post Import Substitution) trade openness Economy Steady growth (4.55% in 2006, 4.23% in 2007) Inflation under control (4.2% in 2006,but 14.1% in 2007) (Official) Unemployment still high (9.1% in 2004) Exports (main partners: US, China, Europe) – Industrial components (e.g. Mexico, Brazil) – Commodities (e.g. Chile, Argentina)
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Brazil Facts Population: 189.3 million Area: 8,514,877 km² (5 th ) GDP per capita (PPP): U$ 9,700 Federative Republic: 26 states, 1 FD Lula President: Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (since 2003) Economic Facts Interest rate: 12 % Gini coefficient (UN): 0.57 HDI: 0.800 WB Doing Business Rank: 122 nd (113 in 2007) GDP growth: 4.3% in 2007 (4.1% in 2006)
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FieldRanking Ease of Doing Business122 Starting a Business122 Dealing with Licenses107 Employing Workers119 Registering Property110 Getting Credit84 Protecting Investors64 Paying Taxes137 Trading Across Borders93 Enforcing Contracts106 Closing a Business131 Pending issues Red Tape harnessing private sector Politicization of regulatory agencies’ and state companies’ Adequate Protection of the Environment Overcome issues Political / Macroeconomic predictability Public Foreign Debt Public Policy to Redistribute Income
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Argentina Facts Population: 39.4 million Area: 2,766,890 km² (8 th ) GDP per capita (PPP): U$ 13,307 Federative Republic: 24 provinces President: Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (since 2007) Economic Facts Interest rate: 11.1 % Gini coefficient (UN): 0.49 HDI: 0.869 WB Doing Business Rank: 109 (101 in 2007) GDP growth: 9.1% in 2007 (8.2% in 2006)
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Pending issues Predictability and coherent policies Inflation ghost Growing inequality + growing insecurity Corruption + Regulatory burden Overcome issues Political past Debt restructuring (still some not paid debt) Environment as political objective
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Challenges Stark income inequality Heritages of protectionist, state-led industrialization Poor quality, lacking infrastructure Poor industry regulation Rigid, heavily charged labor market
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LA challenges and our hopes
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