1. Demography of Aging Chapter 2

2. Demography The statistical study of human populations especially with reference to: Size & Density distribution Vital statistics (epidemiology: births, deaths, diseases)

3. Age 0 20 40 60 80 100 0102030405060708090100 1900 Percent Surviving 1950 2002 Source: Arias E. United States Life Tables, 2002. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol. 53, no. 6. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics, 2004. Survival Curves for U.S. Population, 1900 to 2002

4. Probability of 50 year old living to 90, 1900 to 2002 2.7 5.0 15.2 3.8 9.6 26.6 0 5 10 15 20 25 190019502002 Percent Men Women 30 Source: Computed from U.S. life tables in: Arias E. United States life tables, 2002. National vital statistics reports; vol. 53, no. 6. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for health Statistics, 2004.

5. Figure 2.1: Life expectancy at birth by sex, France 1806-1997

6. Increase in Average Life Expectancy in Years in Some Countries, 1950-1995, Total (MF) Developed CountriesDeveloping Countries Japan 15China30 Italy11Turkey24 France10India22 United Kingdom7Egypt19 USA7 Kenya18 Sweden 6.1 Brazil15 Argentina9

7. Life expectancy and infant mortality throughout human history Life expectancy Infant mortality rate at birth (years) (per 1000 live births) Prehistoric20-35200-300 Sweden, 1750s37210 India, 1880s25230 U. S., 190048133 France, 19506652 Japan, 1996804

9. Proportion of population aged 0-14 versus 65+(In Italy)

11. Figure 2.5: Maximum life span in Sweden

12. Annual number of females reaching 100 years in the North European countries Number of centenarians per million inhabitants in Denmark (1800-1994)

13. Centenarians: USA 1990: Harvard University started New England Centenarian Study (JAMA 288:18 p. 2247, 2002). Data from this study refute the idea that aging represents an inexorable march…characterized by a steady decline. Rather, centenarians are generally in very good health. They are either: -Escapers “People who have escaped any disease” -Late onset of disease, 85+ -Early onset of disease which was overcome JAPAN 2004: Reports identify -SSC (Semi-Super Centenarians), age 105+ years. -SC (Super Centenarians), 110+ years In both groups, alterations in the gene coding for I / IGF-1 receptor

14. Christian Mortensen 1882-1998 Dr. John Wilmoth

16. Average Lifespan at Birth for Females, 1990-1995 and Lifespan Differential in Years Developed CountriesF-M Japan826 Sweden 816 Italy80 6 France 818 United Kingdom775 USA807 USSR (previous)7510 Developing Countries Argentina757 China733 Turkey705 Brazil696 Egypt632 India611 Kenya614

17. Probable causes for longevity in favor of women: Genetic (XX vs. XY) or Environmental (geography, country, income) Other causes: Lesser life stress in females Less smoking Protective action of estrogens? Lesser accumulation of mDNA deletions/mutations with better protection against oxidative damage Others? Implication for prevention and treatment

18. Older women whose parents survived past age 90 are generally healthier than women whose parents did not survive as long. These women … overall death rates die of cardiovascular disease report a diagnosis of diabetes mental and mobility limitaions risk of hip fracture and non-spine fractures* have higher self-rated quality of life have faster walking speed and better measures of grip strength *reduced fracture risk seen for maternal, but not paternal survival past age 90 Data from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF), Peggy Cawthon

19. Mother died before age 90 Mother survived past age 90 Follow-up time from study entry (years) % Survival Women whose mothers survived past age 90 had an approximately 20% lower risk of cardiovascular disease death compared to women whose mothers did not live as long Data from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF), Peggy Cawthon Survival of Female Offspring (65+ years) from Cardiovascular Disease Death based on Maternal Longevity