1. Final briefing DG-AGRI: Introduction Michiel A. Keyzer Project Coordinator Brussels 21 February 2011

2. The project CATSEI: China’s Agricultural transition: Trade, Social and Environmental Impacts Prospects, challenges and policy options 2010-2030 Started in 2007 under EU’s 6-th Framework program, with 50% own funding by partners Successor of Chinagro project (under 5-th Framework, 2002- 2005) that focused on development and use of policy analysis model: Chinagro I, a spatially explicit welfare optimization model, with all counties represented Project components: –Data analysis: conducting surveys, updating & adapting model database –Modeling and scenario simulations: preparing new version of model –Policy papers: beyond modeling, covering institutional topics

3. Some messages: Chinagro project There will be a major rise in demand of meat and dairy until 2030, leading to limited rise imports of livestock products but large imports of animal feeds (maize, protein feeds, carbohydrates) Getting a sense of China’s future in agriculture and rural areas requires accounting for the country’s size and spatial diversity Livestock production will continue to make a critical contribution to farm incomes, particularly in the poorer areas Unless addressed, plant nutrient (N,P,K) imbalances will rise across the country

4. Some messages: CATSEI Earlier Chinagro messages largely confirmed by new evidence collected But by now F5: food, feed, fuel, fiber and fertilizer scarcity worldwide –China has already become significant importer of vegetal oils and animal feeds (maize, protein feeds, carbohydrate feeds) that affects world prices –Even though China has modest biofuel targets, rising biofuel mandates worldwide have ended era of food surpluses, and strengthen volatility of world markets Promotion of its agricultural exports requires China to address various food-safety and subsidy issues, and to streamline its requirements on imports Labor scarcity in rural China calls for investments in rural areas –To keep countryside attractive, to promote mechanization etc. Nutrient imbalances need to be reduced –Both surpluses (N,P) and deficits (K) –P, K recycling needed (worldwide)

5. Final CATSEI briefing (1) This session’s program is the same as for the morning program of the Final CATSEI Forum held in Beijing, November 2010, but now –without afternoon presentations on Opportunities and challenges for trade and agricultural policy China-EU Social issues Environment –and without the concluding Roundtable For results of other CATSEI Work Packages see: –Summary of main findings from work packages WP2, WP3 and WP4 at www.catsei.org under ‘Results and publications’  ‘Presentations’

6. Final CATSEI briefing (2) Prospects of China’s Agricultural Economy in 2030: Opportunities and Challenges After this introduction: 1.Development & policies: past 30 years and strategic outlook by Huanguang Qiu (CCAP) 2. Prospects 2030: baseline and scenario variants Chinagro II model by Michiel Keyzer and Wim van Veen (SOW-VU) 3. Discussion