1. WAWC Workshop 4.8.2005 How to evaluate the disruptiveness potential of new wireless technologies – perspectives of ICT industry players Liisa-Maija Sainio, Senior Lecturer

2. Themes of the presentation 1.Background & goal of the study 2.Propositional framework & concepts 3.Methodology 4.Propositional analysis 5.Conclusions

3. Background -Doctoral dissertation project; 4 cases: 1) Bluetooth – national operator 2) WLAN – local operator A 3) Grid computing – software company 4) Mobile Peer-to-peer paradigm – comparison between device manufacturer and local operator B

4. Goal of the study -How do firms interpret potentially disruptive technologies or operating models in their own strategic context -Themes of the framework: PR 1) Product characteristics and added value PR 2) Technology and market uncertainty PR 3) Changes in product-market positions PR 4) Competence destruction PR 5) Changes in value network positions  Amount of radical changes in business model?

5. Propositional framework

6. Concepts Disruptive technology: (vs. technical operating model) - Different value proposition - Rapid improvements in performance; ultimately meets the needs of mainstream markets - Destroys the competences of existing industry players Business model: Unique combination of activities, resources and strategies with which the company delivers value to customers and captures profit from the market.

7. Methodology -Combination of technology forecasting and strategic analysis -Firm-level qualitative analysis and cross-case analysis (how did the framework function?) -group discussions with ICT industry experts -Why group discussions? -Efficient way of gathering rich data -Quick feedback (evaluation & control)

8. EXPERTISE IN TECHNOLOGY AND ECONOMICS www.lut.fi Wired connection Wireless, ad hoc connection GRID COMPUTING: dynamic,virtual resource allocation (storage, calculations) BLUETOOTH: Personal Area Networking ~10 m WLAN: wireless access in public spaces ~100 m MOBILE P2P PARADIGM: decentralized operating model Computing power: product  service Low-cost network access, 3 G? Low-cost cable replacement, hot spot services Vs. centralized client- server models INVESTIGATED CASE TECHNOLOGIES:

11. Different dimensions of disruptiveness: Improvements in performance criteria (Bluetooth) Not taken seriously in its initial stages (”WLAN is a bit of joke technology”) May change pricing structures (P2P) May change the product concept and distribution model (Grid computing) New functions to existing applications

12. Conclusions -Results not generalizable! -The value in the process itself; providing a holistic perspective on a new technology -Cross-case analysis result: Proposition 4 possibly not reliable! -Contradiction between changes in product characteristics and uncertainty vs. strategic response!  Knowledge structures enforce the belief in current competences  Sign of vulnerability in the face of potentially disruptive technologies