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A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Chris Caton 15 March 2005.

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Presentation on theme: "A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Chris Caton 15 March 2005."— Presentation transcript:

1 A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Chris Caton 15 March 2005

2 Oil Prices (West Texas) in $US/bbl Source: Datastream Oil Prices (West Texas) in $US/bbl 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 828384858687888990919293949596979899000102030405 $53.54 as at10 Mar 05

3 Oil Prices (West Texas) in $A/bbl Source: Datastream 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 828384858687888990919293949596979899000102030405 $67.21as at10 Mar 05

4 Petrol Prices Relative to CPI Source: Datastream 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 828384858687888990919293949596979899000102030405

5 Total US Non-farm Employment Source: Datastream -0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 90919293949596979899000102030405 3mth/3mth chg

6 US Consumer Prices Source: Datastream 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 90919293949596979899000102030405 Core year-to % change Headline

7 US Nominal GDP and Fed Funds Rate Source: Datastream 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 858687888990919293949596979899000102030405 Fed funds rate Nominal GDP %

8 2005 Growth Forecasts (%) Month of Forecast A-04S-04O-04N-04D-04J-05F-05 Australia3.53.4 3.23.1 New Zealand2.42.5 US3.63.5 3.43.53.63.5 China7.7 8.0 8.28.4 Japan1.91.8 1.51.1 Germany1.6 1.51.31.2 UK2.6 2.5 “World”3.23.1 3.0 Source: Consensus Economics

9 Real GDP Growth in Australia and the US Source: Datastream -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 8081828384858687888990919293949596979899000102030405 AustraliaUS year-to % change

10 Australia MTP growth and Non-rural exports Source: Datastream -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 8586878889909192939495969798990001020304 -3 -2 0 2 3 5 6 8 yoy% MTP (R)

11 Gross Domestic Product & Domestic Demand Source: Datastream year-to % growth -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 80828486889092949698000204 Domestic demandGDP

12 Consensus GDP Forecasts 20022003200420052006 South-East Asia Indonesia3.74.54.95.25.5 Malaysia4.15.37.15.35.5 Philippines5.54.96.14.64.5 Singapore2.21.18.14.24.8 Thailand5.36.96.15.35.4 North-East Asia China8.09.39.58.47.8 Hong Kong2.33.27.84.74.5 Japan0.21.32.91.11.8 South Korea6.33.14.73.94.7 Taiwan3.63.35.94.24.3 The Asian Outlook Source: Consensus Economics

13 Housing Approvals Source: ABS 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 81838587899193959799010305 units Building approvals Housing finance approvals for new and newly-constructed homes

14 Investor Lending for Residential Property Source: ABS 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9293949596979899000102030405 $bn

15 Ratio of Australian House Prices to GDP Source: UBS

16 House Prices – Australia vs Sydney Source: ABS House prices: Canberra and Australia 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 440 480 520 878889909192939495969798990001020304 Index Australia Sydney

17 Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Source: ABN AMRO

18 Consumer Spending Growth Source: ABS

19 Total Business Investment Source: ABS

20 Gross Domestic Product Source: ABS

21 The Labour Market Source: Datastream 7500 7900 8300 8700 9100 9500 9900 8990919293949596979899000102030405 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 '000s % Employment (LHS) Unemployment rate (RHS)

22 Australian Inflation Source: ABS 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 90919293949596979899000102030405 Headline CPINon-volatile market goods and services ('core') BT forecasts % GST effect

23 Key BT Economics Forecasts 2001200220032004 2005 (f) Real GDP2.63.83.62.92.4 Headline CPI4.43.02.82.32.6 Unemployment Rate (%)6.76.35.95.55.4 Current Account Deficit ($b)15.930.546.453.546.5 % of GDP2.34.15.96.45.4

24 Printing Activity and GDP Source: ABS

25 Now (10 March) End-June 2005 End-Dec 2005 AUD/USD0.79660.75 Official cash rate (%) 5.505.75 10 Year Bond yield (%) 5.585.75 6.00 ASX 200 424242004300 Financial Market Forecasts

26 The Australian Dollar and the US Trade Weighted Index Source: Datastream 60 75 90 105 120 135 1999200020012002200320042005 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 US TWI inverted (lhs) AUD/USD (rhs) IndexAUD/USD

27 Source: Datastream AUD/EURO and AUD/USD

28 RBA Non-Rural Commodity Prices and the AUD/USD Source: Datastream 74.0 82.2 90.3 98.5 106.6 114.8 123.0 131.1 139.3 858687888990919293949596979899000102030405 0.48 0.53 0.59 0.64 0.69 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 RBA Non-Rural Commodity Price Index (US$ terms) (LHS) AUD/USD (RHS) index AUD/USD

29 Source: Consensus Economics GDPConsumer Prices Australia3.52.5 United States3.32.5 New Zealand3.02.3 Spain2.92.6 Canada2.92.0 Sweden2.51.9 Norway2.42.0 United Kingdom2.32.0 Netherlands2.21.6 France2.21.8 Eurozone2.12.0 Japan2.00.9 Switzerland1.81.3 Italy1.82.0 Germany1.6 Global Medium-Term Economic Growth and Inflation Prospects (2004-2014)

30 Asia-Pacific Medium-Term Economic Growth and Inflation Prospects (2004-2014) GDPConsumer Prices China7.93.7 India6.64.5 Thailand6.12.9 Malaysia5.61.5 Indonesia5.15.5 Hong Kong5.02.1 South Korea4.83.1 Singapore4.71.6 Taiwan4.61.8 Australia3.52.5 New Zealand3.02.3 Japan2.00.9 Source: Consensus Economics

31 China’s share of Australian Exports and Imports Source: ABS

32 Summary  World economic growth will slow in 2005.  6-10% gains in international shares likely in next 12 months.  Australian economy still doing quite well, though signals are mixed.  The air is coming out of the housing bubble.  Interest rates may rise further, but not by much.  The exchange rate is now a two-way risk.  Australian market likely to perform on a par with overseas.

33 Disclaimers The information in this presentation is general only and does not take into account your particular investment objectives or financial situation. Before making an investment decision you should consult a financial adviser. The information is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. However, no member of the BT Financial Group gives any warranty of reliability or accuracy nor accepts any responsibility arising in any other way including for negligence. This disclaimer is subject to any contrary provisions of any applicable legislation. An investment in any fund described in this presentation is not a deposit with or any other liability of Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141. None of Westpac Banking Corporation or its related entities guarantee the capital value or investment performance of any fund. Unless stated otherwise, BT Financial Group is the source of all charts, performance information and other data. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. O


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