1. 1 Population Growth and Housing in California Hans Johnson Public Policy Institute of California johnson@ppic.org

2. 2Outline  Demographic determinants of housing demand  Population changes for key groups  Regional patterns  Public opinion

3. 3 Average Annual Population Change and New Housing Units by Decade

4. 4

5. 5

6. 6 Why the mismatch between population growth and housing?  Insufficient supply of new housing  Not all population growth is equal with respect to generating housing demand: –Children do not form their own households –Young adults have low household formation rates –Immigrants and Latinos tend to have higher family and household sizes

7. 7 Householder rates vary by age Probability of Being a Householder by Age, California 2001 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% 18-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5465-7475+

8. 8 Householder rates vary by nativity and ethnicity Age standardized householder rates among adults in 2000

9. 9Outline  Demographic determinants of housing demand  Population changes for key groups  Regional patterns  Public opinion

10. 10 Absolute population growth will be strong this decade Historic and Projected Decennial Change in California’s Population

11. 11 Increase in adult population was much lower in the 1990s than in the 1980s, but…

12. 12 …projections show strong growth in adult populations in the next two decades

13. 13 Growth in U.S.-born population also slowed substantially, but…

14. 14 …second generation will reach prime household formation ages Population by immigrant generation, 2000

15. 15Outline  Demographic determinants of housing demand  Population changes for key groups  Regional patterns  Public opinion

16. 16 Highest population growth rates in inland regions

17. 17 Median Rents in Counties with High Rent Burdens Source: PPIC tabulations of 2000 census; includes counties with at least 37 percent of renters paying at least 35 percent of income on rent

18. 18 California’s Most Crowded Places

19. 19Outline  Demographic determinants of housing demand  Population changes for key groups  Regional patterns  Public opinion

20. 20 Percent who say issue is a “big problem” now

21. 21 Confidence in state government’s ability to plan for future growth is low How much confidence do you have in the state government’s Ability to plan for the state’s future and growth?

22. 22 Percent who say the following problems will get worse by 2025

23. 23

24. 24 New Housing Units Authorized, 1963-2004

25. 25 Ratio of Population Change to New Housing Units Authorized, 1963-2004

26. 26 Population Change and New Housing Units Authorized, 1963-2004