1. 1 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 “Western Snowpack and Water Supply Perspectives” Phil Pasteris Supervisory Meteorologist Natural Resources Conservation Service United States Department of Agriculture National Water and Climate Center http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov phil.pasteris@usda.gov

2. 2 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 Snow Survey / Water Supply Forecast Program J. E. Church 1909 Mt. Rose, Nevada 1935, “Principles of Snow Surveying as Applied to Forecasting Stream Flow,” Journal of Agricultural Research NRCS Activities 1935 - SCS officially began snow survey and water supply forecasting in the western U.S. and Alaska PL 74-46 Soil Conservation Act

3. 3 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 Snow Survey Program Activities Lead the Cooperative Snow Survey Program in 12 western states Operate the SNOTEL network – 704 sites Coordinate the cooperative manual snow survey program – 922 manual sites Train snow surveyors in proper snow survey techniques and survival in remote areas

4. 4 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 SNOTEL Network 1974 - Congress authorized and funded the SNOTEL system to automate remote sensing of the snowpack information Reports daily snow water equivalent, precipitation, snow depth, temperature and other parameters as needed.

5. 5 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 SNOTEL Site Locations

6. 6 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 Mt. Rose, NV SNOTEL Site

7. 7 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 Meteor Burst Technology

8. 8 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 Water Supply Forecasting 717 total WSF points, 499 are produced NRCS Joint activity with National Weather Service ~11,000 WSF issued in FY- 2004 20 NRCS WSF points in Washington Over 58,000 “unique user” accesses to WSF in April 2004

9. 9 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 SS-WSF Personnel State Data Collection Offices AK, CO, ID, MT, OR, UT State Water Supply Specialists AZ, CA, NV, NM, WA, WY NWCC Staff at Portland, OR Program Liaison in Washington, DC

10. 10 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 PNW Snow Survey / WSF Team Oregon Data Collection Office Jon Lea, Snow Survey Supervisor, 503-414-3267 Sheila Strachan, Hydrologist, 503-414-3272 Rashawn Tama-Sweet, Hydrologist, 503-414-3268 Bill Overman, Hydrologic Technician, 503-414-3269 Melissa Webb, Hydrologic Technician, 503-414-3270 Scott Pattee, Water Supply Specialist, 360-428-7684 2021 E. College Way, Suite 214 Mt. Vernon, WA 98273 scott.pattee@wa.usda.gov Water Supply Hydrologists - NWCC Washington Cascades, Oregon, California, Jolyne Lea, 503-414-3040 Washington, Columbia Basin, Tom Perkins, 503-414-3059 Montana, Colorado, Jennifer Erxleben, 503-414-3033 Southwest, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Tom Pagano, 503-414-3010 Modeling Hydrologist, David Garen, 503-414-3021

11. 11 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 Water Year 2005 Washington Governor declares statewide drought emergency. $12 mil in funding sought. Oregon Governor declares drought emergency in Klamath Basin. What IS going on this year? Extremes in the north (dry) and in the south (wet) The best of times, the worst of times? Impacts on the ski industry. How does it compare to 2001 and 1977 in the PNW? What’s the spring and summer water supply forecast? What about next water year? Is this a “flash drought?”

12. 12 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 March 1, 2005 / 2001 Snowpacks

13. 13 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 Statistical Snowpack Ranking 157 of 471 SNOTEL sites westwide with 20+ years of record rank in the lowest 5% (PNW) 17 of 471 SNOTEL sites rank in the highest 5% (Southwest, Great Basin) 25 Washington SNOTEL sites set record low snowpacks for March 15 30 Washington SNOTEL sites in the lowest 5% ranking

14. 14 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 Washington SNOTEL Sites

15. 15 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 SNOTEL Station Comparisons Elbow Lake – 3,200’ 3/19/20053/19/2001 SWE 1” / PRCP 78” | SWE 20” / PRCP 55”

16. 16 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 SNOTEL Station Comparisons Rainy Pass – 4,780’ 3/19/20053/19/2001 SWE 12” / PRCP 28” | SWE 20” / PRCP 20”

17. 17 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 SNOTEL Station Comparisons Stevens Pass – 4,070’ 3/19/20053/19/2001 SWE 8” / PRCP 48” | SWE 20” / PRCP 25”

18. 18 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 SNOTEL Station Comparisons White Pass – 4,500’ 3/19/20053/19/2001 SWE 1” / PRCP 15” | SWE 11” / PRCP 13”

19. 19 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 SNOTEL Station Comparisons Corral Pass – 6,000’ 3/19/20053/19/2001 SWE 9” / PRCP 20” | SWE 17” / PRCP 20”

20. 20 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 SNOTEL Station Comparisons Paradise– 5,120’ 3/19/20053/19/2001 SWE 22” / PRCP 48” | SWE 35” / PRCP 45”

21. 21 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 Snowpack Projection Corral Pass – 6,000’

22. 22 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 Precipitation Projection Corral Pass – 6,000’

23. 23 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 March 1, 1977 Water Supply Forecast

24. 24 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 March 1, 2005 / 2001 Water Supply

25. 25 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 NRCS / NWS WSF Points NRCS – Blue NWS – Red Joint – Yellow

26. 26 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 Cle Elum Lake Inflow WSF

27. 27 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 Salmon Crk. Conconully

28. 28 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 Skagit Basin WSF

29. 29 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 White / Green River WSF

30. 30 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 Lewis / Cowlitz WSF

31. 31 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 March 1, 2005 / 2001 Reservoir Storage 129% of Average Capacity43% of Average Capacity

32. 32 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 March 1, 2005 / 2001 Reservoir Storage 2001 Reservoirs BUMPING LAKE CLE ELUM KACHESS KEECHELUS RIMROCK CONCONULLY RESERVOIR SALMON LAKE 2005 Additional Reservoirs Ross Chelan Diablo

33. 33 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 Cle Elum Storage: Above Average

34. 34 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 Lurking in Southwest WA...

35. 35 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 Closing Thoughts “You can observe a lot just by watchin'.” “The future ain’t what is used to be.” Yogi Berra

36. 36 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 Closing Thoughts We need to learn to “manage climate impacts.” Maintain a robust climate observation network at all elevations. Integrate water supply forecasts with risk-based water management decision models. Enhance existing technology to deliver risk-based products directly to users in near real-time. Snowpack analysis, volume forecasts, special indexes (SWSI, Drought Monitor, etc.)

37. 37 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 Thank You