1. Distributions When comparing two groups of people or things, we can almost never rely on a single comparison Example: Are men taller than women?

2. Distributions We almost always measure several or many representative people or things

3. Distributions We almost always measure several or many representative people or things We also almost never measure every person or thing

4. Distributions We almost always measure several or many representative people or things We also almost never measure every person or thing Instead, we measure some of them

5. Distributions We almost always measure several or many representative people or things We also almost never measure every person or thing Instead, we measure some of them The “some of them” that you measure is called a sample because we have “sampled” the entire population

6. Distributions The population is every possible person or thing that could have been part of the sample (e.g. all of the men in the world, all of the women, etc.)

7. Distributions The population is every possible person or thing that could have been part of the sample (e.g. all of the men in the world, all of the women, etc.) We can tell a lot about a population by looking at a sample (e.g. you don’t need to eat a whole container of ice cream to know if you like it!)

8. Distributions When you measure several different things you get (no surprise!) different numbers

9. Distributions When you measure several different things you get (no surprise!) different numbers We say that those numbers are distributed

10. Distributions A distribution is a set of numbers. –Examples: the heights of the men in the room, the heights of the women in the room, the ages in the room, the scores on the mid-term, etc.

11. Distributions Looking at distributions: –We often conceptualize distributions by graphing them with a probability density function How Many? Ages

12. Distributions Looking at distributions: –Here’s an example of a “normal” distribution How Many? Ages

13. Distributions Looking at distributions: –Here’s an example of a “rectangular” distribution How Many? Birthdays

14. Distributions key insight: The measurements in a sample are distributed because the population is distributed

15. Distributions key insight: The measurements in a sample are distributed because the population is distributed Ponder this: the more people or things in your sample, the more your sample is like the entire population –It’s like “sampling” ice cream with a really big spoon

16. Describing Distributions It’s no good to just have a pile of numbers, we need a way of summarizing the characteristics of the distribution. What are some ways to describe a distribution?

17. Describing Distributions All distributions have a sum –We could just add up the samples and talk about, for example, the total height of the men and the total height of the women in the room. –What’s the problem with this approach?

18. Describing Distributions All distributions have a mean (a.k.a average) –The mean is the normalized sum - this means that it is adjusted for the number in the sample

19. Describing Distributions All distributions have a mean (a.k.a average) –The mean is the normalized sum - this means that it is adjusted for the number in the sample –How do we do that?

20. Describing Distributions All distributions have a mean (a.k.a average) –The mean is the normalized sum - this means that it is adjusted for the number in the sample –How do we do that? –Divide the sum by the number in the sample

21. “The” Mean

22. x is pronounced “x bar” and means “the mean” x 1 is measurement number 1 x n is the last measurement in the distribution (of n measurements) x i is any one of the measurements (you can fill in the i with any number between 1 and n)  means “add these up” -

23. “The” Mean “x bar” (the mean) Sum of the sample Number of measurements

24. Properties of the Mean Every value is some distance from the mean - this distance is called a “deviation score” deviation score = x i - x _

25. Properties of the Mean The mean is the point from which the sum of deviation scores is zero

26. Properties of the Mean The mean is the point from which the sum of deviation scores is zero This means that the mean is like a balancing point: all the scores below the mean are balanced by the scores above the mean

27. Properties of the Mean The sum of the squared deviations from the mean is smaller than from any other number Y is any other number

28. Properties of the Mean The sum of the squared deviations from the mean is smaller than from any other number

29. Properties of the Mean The mean is the number that, when added to itself n times, gives you the sum of the numbers in the sample =

30. “Other” Means Sometimes just adding the items in the sample and dividing by n gives you a number that doesn’t really describe the n numbers

31. “Other” Means Sometimes just adding the numbers in the sample and dividing by n gives you a number that doesn’t really describe the n numbers –for example: a sine wave +1  x i = 0 !

32. “Other” Means Root-Mean-Square (RMS): first square the scores before you sum them, then take the square root to undo the squaring. +1

33. Other Descriptions of a Distribution: the Median The mean is sensitive to outliers –eg. 1, 2, 3, 100, 4 –mean = 110/5 = 22 … not particularly representative of the numbers in the sample

34. Other Descriptions of a Distribution: the Median Another descriptive statistic, the median, is less sensitive to outliers –the median is the ordinal middle of the sample: half of the measurements lie below the median and half of the measurements lie above it.

35. Other Descriptions of a Distribution: the Median Another descriptive statistic, the median, is less sensitive to outliers –the median is the ordinal middle of the sample: half of the measurements lie below the median and half of the measurements lie above it. –in other words it is the 50th percentile

36. Other Descriptions of a Distribution: the Median for example: –1, 2, 3, 100, 4 put into rank order is… –1, 2, 3, 4, 100 –so the middle number (obviously) is 3 (remember that the mean was 22!)

37. Other Descriptions of a Distribution: the Median if n is even take the average of the two middle numbers: –1, 2, 3, 100, 4, 5 put into rank order is… –1, 2, 3, 4, 5 100 –so the middle number is the average of 3 and 4 = 3.5

38. Other Descriptions of a Distribution: the Median the median is not sensitive to outliers –notice the median of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 = the median of 1, 2, 3, 4, 100 = 3

39. Measures of Variability What’s not so good about using the mean to describe a distribution?

40. Measures of Variability Example: similar mean temperature in Vancouver and Lethbridge on Sept. 11 2006

41. Measures of Variability Example: BUT the distribution of temperatures is quite different for the two cities

42. Measures of Variability The range is the highest number minus the lowest number e.g. X = {1, 3, 23, 45, 62} the range is 62 - 1 = 61

43. Measures of Variability The range is the highest number minus the lowest number Notice that the range doesn’t tell you much about the distribution of numbers. –it doesn’t tell you where the distribution is located (the mean) –it doesn’t tell you how the numbers relate to each other: e.g. 1, 48,49,50,51, 52, 100 has a range of 99!

44. Measures of Variability What’s needed is a measure of the “distance” between the numbers in the distribution - how spread apart are they from each other

45. Measures of Variability Question: How tightly or loosely spaced are the cities?

46. D2D2 One approach would be to calculate the distances between each pair of cities Vancouver Hope Cache Creek Kamloops Salmon Arm Revelstoke Lake Louise Banff Calgary Medicine Hat Swift Current Vancouver Hope Cache Creek Kamloops Salmon Arm Revelstoke Lake Louise Banff Calgary Medicine Hat Swift Current = 0

47. D2D2 One approach would be to calculate the distances between each pair of cities Vancouver Hope Cache Creek Kamloops Salmon Arm Revelstoke Lake Louise Banff Calgary Medicine Hat Swift Current Vancouver Hope Cache Creek Kamloops Salmon Arm Revelstoke Lake Louise Banff Calgary Medicine Hat Swift Current = 150

48. D2D2 One approach would be to calculate the distances between each pair of cities Vancouver Hope Cache Creek Kamloops Salmon Arm Revelstoke Lake Louise Banff Calgary Medicine Hat Swift Current Vancouver Hope Cache Creek Kamloops Salmon Arm Revelstoke Lake Louise Banff Calgary Medicine Hat Swift Current = 343

49. D2D2 One approach would be to calculate the distances between each pair of cities Vancouver Hope Cache Creek Kamloops Salmon Arm Revelstoke Lake Louise Banff Calgary Medicine Hat Swift Current Vancouver Hope Cache Creek Kamloops Salmon Arm Revelstoke Lake Louise Banff Calgary Medicine Hat Swift Current = -150

50. D2D2 One approach would be to calculate the distances between each pair of cities Vancouver Hope Cache Creek Kamloops Salmon Arm Revelstoke Lake Louise Banff Calgary Medicine Hat Swift Current Vancouver Hope Cache Creek Kamloops Salmon Arm Revelstoke Lake Louise Banff Calgary Medicine Hat Swift Current = 0

51. D2D2 One approach would be to calculate the distances between each pair of cities Vancouver Hope Cache Creek Kamloops Salmon Arm Revelstoke Lake Louise Banff Calgary Medicine Hat Swift Current Vancouver Hope Cache Creek Kamloops Salmon Arm Revelstoke Lake Louise Banff Calgary Medicine Hat Swift Current = 193

52. notice that there are n * n = n 2 pairs D2D2

53. D2D2 If you sum up all the differences between numbers you get…

54. D2D2 Z E R O

55. D2D2 If you sum up all the differences between numbers you get…

56. D2D2 What does a statistician do when things sum to zero?

57. D2D2 Square everything first, then sum them, then square root

58. D2D2 D 2 is the sum of the squared differences D is the square root of D 2

59. D2D2 What is the problem with using D or D 2 ?

60. D2D2 if n is “pretty big” n 2 will be huge!

61. S 2 : a better choice Select a representative “anchor point” and just measure distance from that point

62. S 2 : a better choice Select a representative “anchor point” and just measure distance from that point For e.g. measure distances relative to Calgary

63. S 2 : a better choice

64. Notice there are some negative distances We don’t care about the sign of the distances, we just care about the distances themselves

65. S 2 : a better choice S 2 (called the variance) is like D 2 except it uses a single “anchor point” (like measuring distances from Calgary)

66. S 2 : a better choice S 2 (called the variance) is like D 2 except it uses a single “anchor point” (like measuring distances from Calgary) That anchor point is the mean

67. S 2 : a better choice

68. S: the standard deviation The standard deviation of a distribution of values is the square root of the variance

69. S: the standard deviation That can be rewritten this way for using a calculator:

70. Next Time Transforming Scores (chapter 4) We begin significance testing (chs. 11, 12, 13, 14)