1. One Theory to Rule Them All: The Cultural Cognitive Approach to Public Opinion on Everything from Gun Control to Climate Change John Gastil Univ. of Washington Dept. of Communication UW Climate Impacts Group May 18, 2010

2. Overview Broader Context of the Research Program The Cultural Cognitive Approach Culture, Ideology, and Partisanship Cultural Attitudes toward Science and Tech. Origins of Distorted Empirical Beliefs Future Research

3. Broader Research Context

6. Collaborators and Support Principal investigators –Dan Kahan, Yale University –Don Braman, George Washington University Additional collaborators on cited research herein –Geoff Cohen, University of Colorado –Paul Slovic, Decision Research –Justin Reedy, University of Washington Financial support –National Science Foundation (Directorate for Social, Behavioral & Economic Sciences: Law and Social Science Program and the Decision, Risk, and Management Sciences Program) –Department of Communication, University of Washington –Assorted project-based funding

7. The Cultural Cognitive Approach to Public Opinion

8. What Exactly Is the Cultural Divide?

12. Conflicting Cultural Orientations Fears loss of shared values and community Fears new inequalities/ discrimination Fears loss of personal liberty Fears erosion of authority and private enterprise

13. Communitarian Individualist Egalitarian Hierarchical Communitarian Representative Survey Items 60% agree: Our society would be better off if the distribution of wealth was more equal. 35% agree: The women’s rights movement has gone too far. 79% agree: The gov’t should stop telling people how to live their lives. 52% agree: It’s society’s responsibility to make sure everyone’s basic needs are met.

14. Communitarian Individualist Egalitarian Hierarchical Communitarian Distribution of U.S. Cultural Orientations 2004 national survey data.

15. NORTH SOUND EASTERN WASHINGTON WESTERN WASHINGTON SEATTLE KING (Minus Seattle) Geographic Regions in Washington

16. Communitarian Eastern WA King County (minus Seattle) Seattle North Sound Western WA Individualist Egalitarian Hierarchical Communitarian Cultural Regions in Washington

17. How Big Are the Differences? I-71: Affirming legal status of domestic partnerships

18. How Big Are the Differences? Individualism: “Most people who want to get ahead can make it if they're willing to work hard.” –69% of Eastern Washingtonians hold this view –59% of Seattleites agree Egalitarianism: “It is NOT necessary to believe in God in order to be moral and have good values” –71% of Seattleites hold this view –50% of Eastern Washingtonians agree

19. Conflicting Cultural Orientations

20. Culture, Ideology, and Partisanship a.k.a. Two dimensions are better than one

21. Conflicting Cultural Orientations

22. Lib/Con GOP Gun Control Strength of party affiliation Self-placement on 7-point scale from "strongly liberal" to "strongly conservative" Agree/disagree with five gun control policy items 2004 national survey data.

23. Lib/Con GOP Gun Control -.28 -.17 -.57 Total R =.40

24. Individ. Hieararch Gun Control Agree/disagree with a set of hierarch/egalitarian statements Agree/disagree with a set of individ./solidarism statements

25. Individ. Hieararch Gun Control -.25 -.44.23 Total R =.53

26. GOP Individ. Hieararch Party affiliation as a social expression of cultural orientation

27. Lib/Con GOP Individ. Hieararch "Liberal" and "Conservative" as linguistic expressions of cultural orientation (and party identity)

28. Lib/Con GOP Individ. Hieararch Gun Control

29. Lib/Con GOP Individ. Hieararch Gun Control (ns) -.29 -.55.22.53.50 (ns)

30. Lib/Con GOP Individ. Hieararch Gun Control -.29 -.55.22.53.50

31. Cultural Attitudes Toward Science and Technology

32. Cultural Divergence in Attitudes toward Nanotechnology The potential benefits of nanotechnology include the use of nanomaterials in products to make them stronger, lighter and more effective. Some examples are food containers that kill bacteria, stain- resistant clothing, high performance sporting goods, faster, smaller computers, and more effective skincare products and sunscreens. Nanotechnology also has the potential to provide new and better ways to treat disease, clean up the environment, enhance national security, and provide cheaper energy. While there has not been conclusive research on the potential risks of nanotechnology, there are concerns that some of the same properties that make nanomaterials useful might make them harmful. It is thought that some nanomaterials may be harmful to humans if they are breathed in and might cause harm to the environment. There are also concerns that invisible, nanotechnology- based monitoring devices could pose a threat to national security and personal privacy.

33. Cultural Divergence in Attitudes toward Nanotechnology Communitarians and Egalitarians Hierarchs and Individualists

34. Cultural Location of Genetic Enhancement Arguments Hierarchism Egalitarianism Individualism Collectivism Pro: self- actualization Con: social oppression Pro: collective well-being Con: disrupt social order

35. Hierarchism Egalitarianism Individualism Collectivism Pro-Repro. Technology Elite Cluster Anti-Repro. Technology Elite Cluster Conservative Republicans Liberal Democrats Cultural Location of Genetic Enhancement Arguments

36. Origins of Distorted Empirical Beliefs

37. I-841 (WA-2003) repealed a state regulation that aimed to reduce the frequency of ergonomics-related workplace injuries. Reinforcing existing bias 90% of proponents were able to give a pro argument, and 90% of opponents could offer a con Not hearing the other side Fewer than 50% of either group were able to name an argument advanced by the other side Failure to Weigh Key Arguments 2003 King County survey data.

38. Calculating Knowledge Distortion 2003 King County survey data. Coding of Responses Knowledge question (Four examples) Pro-Regulatory Distortion Correct Answer (and Acceptable Range) Anti-Regulatory Distortion What … is the percentage of occupational injuries and illnesses that are ergonomics-related? More than 60% (38%) Correct answer: 40% Acceptable: 20-60% (35%) Less than 20% (27%) Does the federal government have ergonomics regulations that are similar to those in … Washington, or not? Yes (26%) No (74%) -- How many other states… have ergonomics regulations similar to those in … Washington? More than 25 (58%) Correct answer: 0 Acceptable: 0-25 (42%) -- Are Wal-Mart and Safeway exempt from the requirements of … Washington’s ergonomics rules, or not? -- No (91%) Yes (9%)

39. Sources of Knowledge Distortion KD Model 1KD Model 2 Predictor VariableB (SE)b (sig.)B (SE)b (sig.) Age -.072 (.072)-.073-.065 (.070)-.066 Gender (Female=1) -.463 (.246)-.136-.385 (.242)-.113 Anti-Regulation Attitudes.175 (.121).106-.201 (.172)-.122 Endorsement Knowledge (Any=1).222 (.076).214**-.313 (.193)-.302 Endorsement x Anti-Reg. ––.212 (.071).574** Constant.084 (.618).948 (.670) Adjusted R 2.064**.104** Standard error1.641.61 Number of cases (N)182

40. Impact of Knowledge Distortion Vote Choice Model 1Vote Choice Model 2 Predictor VariableB (SE)b (sig.)B (SE)b (sig.) Age.033 (.030).076.039 (.028).067 Gender (Female=1).021 (.104).014.062 (.098).041 Anti-Regulation Attitudes.282 (.051).383**.024 (.069).032 Knowledge Distortion Index.078 (.031).175*.079 (.031).177* Endorsement Knowledge (Any=1) -.025 (.033)-.053-.375 (.078)-.811** Endorsement x Anti-Reg. ––.141 (.029).860** Endorsement x Distortion ––.020 (.018).102 Constant -1.00 (.262)-.420 (.273) Adjusted R 2.179**.279** Standard error.686.644 Number of cases (N)182

41. Future Research

42. Politics, culture, and nanotech debate –Characterize the distribution of views –Map the arguments for/against Knowledge distortion –Calculate it over time and across groups –See whether its effects are independent Public deliberation on climate change –Supplanting heuristics with learning and critical reflection –Different cultural orientations toward deliberation itself