1. 1 Trends and driving forces in Norwegian urban public transport Nils Fearnley Institute of Transport Economics, Oslo E-mail: naf@toi.no

2. 2 Subsidy level (1986=1.00)

3. 3 Cost per vkm (1986=1.00)

4. 4 Fare level, 1986=1.00

5. 5 Trips/capita (1986=1.00)

6. 6 Profit margins are falling

7. 7 Short and long run elasticities Figure: Dynamics of 10% fare increase -6 % -5 % -4 % -3 % -2 % -1 % 0 % Yr 0Yr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7 Cumulative Annual

8. 8 Social welfare balance sheet All figures relative to 1986 level Benefits: –cuts in subsidies –cost efficiency gains Off-setting costs: –fare increase –emissions: bus + car (modal shift) –waiting time

9. 9 Social welfare calculations

10. 10 Conclusions Trend brake: –Severe subsidy cuts up to 1998 are reversed –Cost efficiency gains up to 1998 are reversed Fare levels rise continuously Post 1998: Increased revenue (subsidy+ticket) but also increased costs Welfare effects over nearly two decades: –Subsidy savings –Cost savings –Large user disbenefit of fare increases offsets the savings