1. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF Renate Hagedorn European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

2. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 ECMWF’s… …background and structure …research activities  Integrated Forecast System (IFS) …operational activities  production, delivery, archiving

3. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Background Convention establishing ECMWF entered in force on 1 st Nov 1975, having been ratified by the following 13 Member states: Recognition of importance and potential to improve medium-range weather forecasts with benefits to the  European economy  Protection and safety of population  Development of meteorology in Europe / post university training  Development of European industry in the field of data-processing Recognition that resources are needed on a scale exceeding those normally practicable at national level Belgium Germany France Yugoslavia Austria Finland United Kingdom Denmark Spain Ireland Netherlands Switzerland Sweden

4. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Today ECMWF is an independent international organization, supported by 18 member states 8 co-operating states Iceland Czech Republic Slovenia Romania Serbia and Montenegro Hungary Croatia Estonia

5. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 New Convention Amendments to the ECMWF Convention were unanimously adopted by Council at its 62 nd extraordinary session on 22 April 2005 Finalization of the ratification process is expected by the earliest end of 2006 The adopted amendments concern mainly:  allowing new Member States to join  enlarging ECMWF’s mission to environmental monitoring  re-defining some decision making processes (voting rights)  widening the possibilities for externally funded projects (e.g. EU)  extending official languages to all official languages in Member States (on a request-and-pay basis)

6. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Objectives Development of global models and data assimilation systems for the dynamics, thermodynamics and composition of the Earth’s fluid envelope and interacting parts of the Earth-system Preparation and distribution of medium-range weather forecasts Scientific and technical research directed towards improving the quality of these forecasts Collection and storage of appropriate meteorological data Make available research results and data to Member States Provision of supercomputer resources to Member States Assistance to WMO programmes Advanced NWP training

7. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 ECMWF Budget 2006 Germany 21.46% Denmark 1.82% Belgium 2.71% United Kingdom 16.69% Turkey 1.92% Sweden 2.59% Finland 1.41% Switzerland 3.06% Portugal 1.27% Austria 2.21% Norway 1.98% Netherlands 4.43% Italy 12.67% Ireland 1.07% Greece 1.45% France 15.74% Spain 7.30% Luxembourg 0.21% Main Revenue 2006 Member States’ contributions£27,460,600 Co-operating States’ contributions £425,100 Other Revenue£1,454,600 Total £29,340,300 Main Expenditure 2006 Staff£12,961,900 Leaving Allowances & Pensions£1,807,500 Computer Expenditure£11,785,900 Buildings£1,858,000 Supplies£927,000 Total£29,340,300 Percentage contributions for 2006-2008

8. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Organizational structure COUNCIL 18 Member States DIRECTOR Dominique Marbouty (France) (162) Meteorological Division Horst Böttger (Germany) (23) Computer Division Isabella Weger (Austria) (60) Operations Walter Zwieflhofer (Austria) (87) Research Philippe Bougeault (France) (47) Administration Gerd Schultes (Germany) (25) Data Division Adrian Simmons (UK) (14) Model Division Martin Miller (UK) (15) Probabilistic Forecasting and Diagnostics Division Tim Palmer (UK) (10) Finance Committee 7 Members Technical Advisory Committee 18 Members Scientific Advisory Committee 12 Members Advisory Committee of Co-operating States 7 Members Advisory Committee on Data Policy 8-24 Members Policy Advisory Committee 7-18 Members

9. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Principal Goal Maintain the current, rapid rate of improvement of its global, medium-range weather forecasting products, with particular effort on early warnings of severe weather events.

10. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Principal Goal Maintain the current, rapid rate of improvement of its global, medium-range weather forecasting products, with particular effort on early warnings of severe weather events.

11. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Principal Goal Maintain the current, rapid rate of improvement of its global, medium-range weather forecasting products, with particular effort on early warnings of severe weather events. Northern Hemisphere: 500 hPa Geopotential above normal

12. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Complimentary Goals In addition to the principal goal of maintaining the current, rapid rate of improvements, the complimentary goals are:  To improve the quality and scope of monthly and seasonal-to-interannual forecasts  To enhance support to Member States national forecasting activities by providing suitable boundary conditions for limited-area models  To deliver real-time analysis and forecasts of atmospheric composition  To carry out climate monitoring through regular re-analyses of the Earth-system  To contribute towards the optimization of the Global Observing System

13. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Numerical Weather Prediction The behaviour of the atmosphere is governed by a set of physical laws Equations cannot be solved analytically, numerical methods are needed Additionally, knowledge of initial conditions of system necessary Incomplete picture from observations can be completed by data assimilation Interactions between atmosphere and land/ocean important

14. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Strategy Development of a suitably comprehensive Earth-system assimilation capability to make best use of all available data Development of a suitably comprehensive and integrated high-resolution Earth-system modelling facility Development of the methodology of ensemble forecasting for medium-range and seasonal forecasting Operational delivery of an enhanced range of meteorological and associated products Maintenance and extension of the Centre’s scientific and technical collaborations

15. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Research Department Data Division Adrian Simmons (UK) (33) Model Division Martin Miller (UK) (27) Probabilistic Forecasting & Diagnostics Division Tim Palmer (UK) (18) Data Assimilation Erik Andersson (Sweden) (14) Satellite Data Jean-Noel Thepaut (France) (16) Re-Analysis Project Sakari Uppala (Finland) (3) Predictability & Diagnostics Tim Palmer (UK) (9) Seasonal Forecast David Anderson (UK) (9) Numerical Aspects Mariano Hortal (Spain) (9) Ocean Waves Peter Janssen (Netherlands) (4) Physical Aspects Anton Beljaars (Netherlands) (14)

16. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 ECMWF’s operational analysis and forecasting system The comprehensive earth-system model developed at ECMWF forms the basis for all the data assimilation and forecasting activities. All the main applications required are available through one integrated computer software system (a set of computer programs written in Fortran) called the Integrated Forecast System or IFS Numerical scheme:  T L 799L91 (799 waves around a great circle on the globe, 91 levels 0-80 km)  semi-Lagrangian formulation Time step:  12 minutes Prognostic variables:  wind, temperature, humidity, cloud fraction and water/ice content, pressure at surface grid-points, ozone Grid:  Gaussian grid for physical processes, ~25 km, 76,757,590 grid points

17. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Deterministic model grid (T799)

18. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 EPS model grid (T399)

19. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 The wave model Coupled ocean wave model (WAM cycle4)  2 versions: global and regional (European Shelf & Mediterranean)  numerical scheme: irregular lat/lon grid, 40 km spacing; spectrum with 30 frequencies and 24 directions  coupling: wind forcing of waves every 15 minutes, two way interaction of winds and waves, sea state dep. drag coefficient  extreme sea state forecasts: freak waves  wave model forecast results can be used as a tool to diagnose problems in the atmospheric model Numerical Methods and Adiabatic Formulation of Models 15 – 24 May 2006

20. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Physical aspects, included in IFS Orography (terrain height and sub-grid-scale characteristics) Four surface and sub-surface levels (allowing for vegetation cover, gravitational drainage, capillarity exchange, surface / sub-surface runoff) Stratiform and convective precipitation Carbon dioxide (345 ppmv fixed), aerosol, ozone Solar angle Diffusion Ground & sea roughness Ground and sea-surface temperature Ground humidity Snow-fall, snow-cover and snow melt Radiation (incoming short-wave and out-going long-wave) Friction (at surface and in free atmosphere) Sub-grid-scale orographic drag Gravity waves and blocking effects Evaporation, sensible and latent heat flux Parameterization of Diabatic Processes 2-12 May 2006

21. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Numbers of observational items assimilated over a 24 hour period on 13 February 2006 Starting a forecast: The initial conditions

22. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Data Assimilation Observations measure the current state, but provide an incomplete picture  Observations made at irregularly spaced points, often with large gaps  Observations made at various times, not all at ‘analysis time’  Observations have errors  Many observations not directly of model variables The forecast model can be used to process the observations and produce a more complete picture (data assimilation)  start with previous analysis  use model to make short-range forecast for current analysis time  correct this ‘background’ state using the new observations The forecast model is very sensitive to small differences in initial conditions  accurate analysis crucial for accurate forecast  EPS used to represent the remaining analysis uncertainty see next 8 days

23. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 What is an ensemble forecast? Forecast time Temperature Complete description of weather prediction in terms of a Probability Density Function (PDF) Initial condition Forecast

24. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Flow dependence of forecast errors If the forecasts are coherent (small spread) the atmosphere is in a more predictable state than if the forecasts diverge (large spread) 26 th June 199526 th June 1994

25. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Why Probabilities? Open air restaurant scenario:  open additional tables: £20 extra cost, £100 extra income (if T>24ºC)  weather forecast: 30% probability for T>24ºC  what would you do? Test the system for 100 days:  30 x T>24ºC -> 30 x (100 – 20) = 2400  70 x T 70 x ( 0 – 20) = -1400 +1000 Employing extra waiter (spending £20) is beneficial when probability for T>24 ºC is greater 20% The higher/lower the cost loss ratio, the higher/lower probabilities are needed in order to benefit from action on forecast

26. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 ECMWF’s Ensemble Prediction Systems Account for initial uncertainties by running ensemble of forecasts from slightly different initial conditions  singular vector approach to sample perturbations Model uncertainties are represented by “stochastic physics” Medium-range EPS (10-day lead) runs twice daily (00 and 12 UTC)  control forecast at T L 399L62 (0.45°, ~50km) from analysis  50 perturbed forecasts at T L 399L62 from perturbed analysis Extended time-range EPS systems: monthly and seasonal forecasts  coupled atmosphere-ocean model (IFS & HOPE)  monthly forecast (4 weeks lead) runs once a week  seasonal forecast (6 months lead) runs once a month Predictability, Diagnostics and Seasonal Forecasting 24 – 28 April 2006

27. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Operations Department Computer Operations Sylvia Baylis (UK) (31) Network and Computer Security Matteo Dell’Acqua (France) (11) Systems Software Neil Storer (UK) (8) Meteorological Division Horst Böttger (Germany) (36) Meteorological Applications Alfred Hofstadler (Austria) (5) Data & Services Baudouin Raoult (France) (6) Meteorological Operations David Richardson (UK) (11) Graphics Jens Daabeck (Denmark) (5) User Support Umberto Modigliani (Italy) (5) Computer Division Isabella Weger (Austria) (63) Servers & Desktops Richard Fisker (Denmark) (8)

28. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Current Computer Configuration

29. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 User support for special projects http://www.ecmwf.int/about/computer_access_registration/Special_Projects.html

30. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 ECMWF model suites Deterministic high-resolution global atmospheric model  T L 799 91 levels; range=10 days Medium-range ensemble prediction system  T L 399 60 levels; range=10 days  control + 50 perturbed members Monthly forecast system  T L 159 40 level (atm.), 1.4 º x 0.3-1.4º, 29 vertical levels (ocean)  51-member ensemble Seasonal forecast system  T L 95 40 level (atm.), 1.4 º x 0.3-1.4º, 29 vertical levels (ocean)  40-member ensemble

31. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 EUROSIP: seasonal multi-model ensemble Three models running at ECMWF:  ECMWF – System 2  Met Office – HADCM3 model, Met Office ocean analyses  Météo-France – Arpege/Climat, Mercator ocean analyses  Spain + Germany may join Unified system  All data in ECMWF operational archive  Common operational schedule (products released at 12UTC on the 15 th of each month) Common products will be available soon  ECMWF release of web products expected this autumn EUROSIP appears to be better than the individual systems

32. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Data Dissemination

33. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 MARS

34. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 ECMWF Data Server A new service that gives researchers immediate and free access to datasets from ECMWF. DEMETER ERA-40 ERA-15 ENACT ENSEMBLES / GEMS - Monthly and daily data - Select area - GRIB or NetCDF - Plotting facility

35. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Meteorological Operations Daily report (data and forecast monitoring, unusual events,…) Forecast verification Development of new products (EFI, tropical cyclones,…) Data and satellite monitoring User guides / meetings

36. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 WMO verification scores Day 6 Day 2

37. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Forecast Products: 1979 1 forecast (200 km resolution) issued 5 days a week

38. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Forecast Products: 2006 wide range of forecast products from deterministic high resolution forecast to probabilistic EPS products www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts

39. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 Products for end users

40. ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006 More Information…