1. Introduction to Monte Carlo Methods D.J.C. Mackay Rasit Onur Topaloglu Ph.D. candidate rot@ucsd.edu

2. Outline Problems Monte Carlo (MC) deals with Uniform Sampling Importance Sampling Rejection Sampling Metropolis Gibbs Sampling Speeding up MC : Hybrid MC and Over-relaxation

3. Definition of Problems Problem1: Generate samples from a distribution Problem2: Estimate expectation of a function given probability distribution for a variable

4. Monte Carlo for High Dimensions The accuracy is independent of the dimensionality of the space sampled Solving first problem => solving second one Just evaluate function using the samples and average them out

5. Sampling from P(x) If P*(x) can be evaluated, still a hard problem as: Z is notknown Not easy to draw at high dimensions (except Gaussian) ex: A sample from univariate Gaussian can be calculated as : Assume we can evaluate P(x) within a multiplicative constant u1 and u2 are uniform in [0,1]

6. Difficulty of Sampling at High Dimensions Can discretize the function (figure on right) and sample the discrete samples This is costly at high dimensions: B N for B bins and N dimensions

7. Uniform Sampling Draw samples uniformly from state space For distributions that have peaks at a small region, lots of points must be sampled so that  (x) is calculated a number of times => requires lots of samples Thus, uniform distribution seldom useful Z R is the normalizing constant: Estimate by: Tries to solve the 2 nd problem

8. Importance Sampling Tries to solve the 2 nd problem Introduce a simpler density Q Values of x where Q(x)>P(x) are over-represented; values of x where Q(x) introduce weights

9. Reliability of Importance Sampling An importance sampler should have heavy tails in problems where infrequent samples might be influential The estimate  vs number of samples Gaussian sampler Cauchy Sampler

10. Rejection Sampling Again, a Q (proposal density) assumed Also assume we know a constant c s.t.: Generate x using Q*(x) Find r.v. u uniformly in interval [0,cQ*(x)] If u<=P*(x), accept and add x to the random number list

11. Transition to Markov Chain MC Importance and rejection sampling work well if Q is similar to P In complex problems, it is difficult to find a single such Q over the state space

12. Metropolis Method Proposal density Q depends on current state x (t) :Q(x`;x (t) ) Accept new state if a  1, Else; accept with probability a: In comparison to rejection sampling, the rejected points are not discarded and hence influential on consequent samples => samples correlated => Metropolis may have to be run more to generate independent samples from P(x)!

13. Disadvantages of Large Step Size Useful for high dimensions Uses a length scale  much smaller than state space L Because: Large steps are highly unlikely to be accepted => Limited or no movement in space! => biased

14. A Lower Bound for Independent Samples Metropolis will explore using a random walk Random walks take a long time After T steps of size , state only moves T  As Monte Carlo is trying to achieve independent samples, requires ~(L/  ) 2 samples to get a sample independent of the initial condition This rule of thumb be used for a lower bound

15. An Example using this Bound time 100 th iteration 400 th iteration 1200 th iteration Metropolis still provides biases estimates even after a large number of iterations Takes ~ 10 2 =100 steps to reach an end state

16. Gibbs Sampling As opposed to previous methods, at least 2 dimensional distributions required Q defined in terms of conditional distributions of joint distribution P(x) The assumption is P(x) complex to evaluate but P(x i |{x j } j  i ) is tractable

17. Gibbs Sampling on an Example Start with x=(x 1,x 2 ), fix x 2 (t) and sample x 1 from P(x 1 |x 2 ) Fix x 1 and sample x 2 from P(x 2 |x 1 )

18. Gibbs Sampling with K Variables In comparison to Metropolis, every proposal is always accepted In bigger models, groups of variables jointly sampled:

19. Comparison of MC Methods in High Dimensions Importance and rejection sampling result in high weights and constants respectively, resulting in inaccurate or length simulations => not practical Metropolis requires at least (  max /  min ) 2 samples to acquire independent samples => might be lengthy Gibbs sampling has similar properties with Metropolis. No adjustable parameters => most practical

20. Practical Questions About Monte Carlo Can we predict how long it takes for equilibrium: Use the simple bound proposed Can we determine convergence in a running simulation: yet another difficult problem Can we speed up convergence time and time between independent samples?

21. Reducing Random Walk in Metropolis : Hybrid MC Most probabilities can be written in the form: Introduce a momentum variable p: K is kinetic energy: Create asymptotic samples from joint distribution: Pick p randomly from: Update x and p: This results in linear time convergence

22. An Illustrative Example for Hybrid MC Hybrid Random walk Random walk Over a number of iterations, hybrid trajectories indicate less correlated samples

23. Reducing Random Walk in Gibbs : Over-relaxation Use former value x (t) as well to calculate x (t+1) : Useful for Gaussians, not straightforward for other types of conditional distributions Suitable to speed up the process when variables are highly correlated

24. An Illustrative Example for Over-Relaxation State space for a bi-variate Gaussian for 40 iterations Over-relaxation samples better covers the state space

25. Reducing Random : Simulated Annealing Introduce a parameter T (temperature) and gradually reduce it to 1: High T corresponds to being able to make transitions easier As opposed to its use in optimization, T is not reduced to 0 but 1

26. Applications of Monte Carlo Differential Equations Ex: Steady-state temperature distribution of an annulus: The finite difference approximation using grid dimension h: With ¼ probability, one of the states is selected The value when a boundary is reached is kept, the mean of many such runs gives the solution

27. Applications of Monte Carlo Integration To evaluate: Bound the function with a box Ratio of points under function to all points within the box gives the ratio of the areas of the function and the box

28. Applications of Monte Carlo Image Processing :Automatic eye-glass removal: MCMC used instead of a gradient-based methods to solve MAP criterion that is used to locate points of eye-glasses [C. Wu, C. Liu, H.-Y. Shum, Y.-Q. Xu and Z. Zhang, “Automatic Eyeglasses Removal from Face Images”, IEEE Tran. On Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, Vol.26, No.3, pp. 322-336, Mar.2004]

29. Applications of Monte Carlo Image segmentation: Data-driven techniques such as edge detection, tracing and clustering combined with MCMC to speed up the search [Z. Tu and S.-C. Zhu, “Image Segmentation by Data-Driven Markov Chain Monte Carlo”, IEEE Tran. On Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, Vol.24, No.5, pp. 657-673, May 2002]

30. Forward Discrete Probability Propagation Rasit Onur Topaloglu Ph.D. candidate rot@ucsd.edu

31. The Problem The tree relates physicalparameters to circuit parameters Structured according to SPICE formula hierarchy Given pdf’s for lowest level parameters; find pdf’s at highest level Lowest Level: High level: Ex: gm=  (2*k*Id)

32. Motivation for Probability Propagation Find a novel propagation method Estimation of distributions of high level parameters needed to examine effects of process variations Gaussian assumption attributed to these parameters no longer accurate in current technologies GOALS Determinism : a stochastic output using known formulas Algebraic tractability : enabling manual applicability Speed & Accuracy : be comparable or outperform Monte Carlo and other parametric methods

33. Parametric Belief Propagation Each node receives and sends messages to parents and children until equilibrium Parent to child (  ) : causal information Parent to parent ( ) : diagnostic information Calculations handled at each node:

34. Parametric Belief Propagation When arrows in the hierarchy tree indicate linear addition operations on Gaussians, analytic formulations possible Not straightforward for other distributions or non- standard distributions

35. Shortcomings of Monte Carlo Non-determinism : Not manually applicable Limited for certain distributions : Random number generators in most CAD packages only provide certain distributions Accuracy : May miss points that are less likely to occur due to random sampling unless very large number of samples used; limited by the performance of random number generator

36. P1 P2 Monte Carlo – FDPP Comparison one-to-many relationships and custom pdf’s P3 P4 Non-standard pdf’s not possible without a custom random number generator Monte Carlo overestimates in one-to-many relationships as same sample is used

37. Operations Necessary to Implement FDPP F (Forward) : Given a function, estimates the distribution of next node in the formula hierarchy Q (Quantize) : Discretize a pdf to operate on its samples B (Bandpass) : Decrements number of samples for computational efficiency R (Re-bin) : Reduces number of samples for computational efficiency Analytic operation on continuous distributions difficult; instead operations on discrete distributions implemented :

38. T NSUB PHIf Necessary Operators (Q, F, B, R) on a Hierarchical Tree QQ F B,R Repeated until we acquire the high level distribution (ex. G)

39. spdf(X) or  (X) pdf(X) p-domainr-domain Probability Discretization Theory: Q N Operator; p and r domains Q N band-pass filter pdf(X) and divide into bins N in Q N indicates number or bins Certain operators easy to apply in r-domain

40. spdf(X) or  (X) r-domain Characterizing an spdf can write spdf(X) as : where : p i : probability for i’th impulse w i : value of i’th impulse

41. F Operator F operator implements a function over spdf’s spdf(X) or  (X) X i, Y : random variables p X s : Set of all samples s belonging to X Function applied to individual impulses Individual probabilities multiplied

42. Band-pass, B e, Operator Eliminate samples having values out of range Margin-based Definition: Error-based Definition: Eliminate samples having probabilities least likely to occur

43. Re-bin, R N, Operator Samples falling into the same bin congregated in one where : Impulses after F Unite into one  bin Resulting spdf(X)

44. Error Analysis Total distortion: Variance of quantization error: If quantizer uniform and  small, quantization error random variable Q is uniformly distributed Distortion caused by representing samples in a bin by a single sample: m i : center or i’th bin

45. Algorithm Implementing the F Operator While each random variable has its spdf computed For each rv. which has all ancestor spdf’s computed For each sample in X 1 For each sample in X r Place an impulse with height p 1,..,p r at x=f(v 1,..,v r ) Apply B and R algorithms to this rv.

46. Algorithm for the B and R Operators Divide this range into M bins For each bin Place a quantizing impulse at the center of the bin with a height p i equal to the sum of all impulses within bin Find maximum probability, p i-max, of quantized impulses within bins Find new maximum and minimum values w i within impulses Divide this range into N bins Find maximum and minimum values w i within impulses Eliminate impulses within bins which have a quantized impulse with smaller probability than error-rate*p i-max For each bin Place an impulse at the center of the bin with height equal to sum of all impulses within bin

47. A close match is observed after interpolation Monte Carlo – FDPP Comparison solid : FDPP dotted : Monte Carlo Pdf of V th Pdf of I D

48. Monte Carlo – FDPP Comparison with a Low Sample Number Monte Carlo inaccurate for moderate number of samples Indicates FDPP can be manually applied without major accuracy degradation solid : FDPP,100 samples Pdf of  F noisy : Monte Carlo, 1000 and 100000 samples respectively

49. Edges define a linear sum, ex: n5=n2+n3 Monte Carlo – FDPP Comparison Pdf of n7Benchmark example solid : FDPP dotted : Monte Carlo triangles:belief propagation

50. Distributions at internal nodes n4, n5, n6 should be re-sampled using Monte Carlo Faulty Application of Monte Carlo Not optimal for internal nodes with non-standard distributions Pdf of n7Benchmark example solid : FDPP dotted : Monte Carlo triangles:belief propagation

51. Conclusions Forward Discrete Probability Propagation is introduced as an alternative to Monte Carlo based methods FDPP should be preferred when low probability samples are important, algebraic intuition needed, non-standard pdf’s are present or one-to-many relationships are present