1. Going to College

2. Whom does it pay to go to college When does it pay to go to college?

3. Going to College College is an Investment in Human Capital

4. Going to College College is an Investment in Human Capital –The more you know, the more you earn

5. Going to College College is an Investment in Human Capital –The more you know, the more you earn –Thus college is not viewed as certification

6. Going to College A HS graduate earns H 1, H 2, H 3,… A college graduate earns C 1, C 2, C 3, …

7. Going to College A HS graduate earns H 1, H 2, H 3,… A college graduate earns C 1, C 2, C 3, … But –College takes time: –It delays the entry into the labor market.

8. Going to College A HS graduate earns H 1, H 2, H 3,…; a college graduate earns C 1, C 2, C 3, … The present values are PV H = H 1 /(1+r) + H 2 /(1+r) 2 + H 3 /(1+r) 3 + H 4 /(1+r) 4 + …

9. Going to College A HS graduate earns H 1, H 2, H 3,…; a college graduate earns C 1, C 2, C 3, … The present values are PV H = H 1 /(1+r) + H 2 /(1+r) 2 + H 3 /(1+r) 3 + H 4 /(1+r) 4 + … PV C = C 1 /(1+r) + C 2 /(1+r) 2 + C 3 /(1+r) 3 + C 4 /(1+r) 4 + …

10. Going to College A HS graduate earns H 1, H 2, H 3,…; a college graduate earns C 1, C 2, C 3, … Go to college if PV C > PV H.

11. Some Simplifying Assumptions People go to standard four-year colleges. After graduating, they have infinite lives High school graduates earn I h each year and college graduates earn I c each year.

12. Some Simplifying Assumptions PV H = I h /r PV C = I c /[r(1+r) 4 ] We account for time delay We don’t account for tuition, books, etc.

13. Equilibrium Equilibrium requires that PV H = PV C

14. Equilibrium Equilibrium requires that PV H = PV C I h /r = PV H = PV C = I c /[r(1+r) 4 ]

15. Equilibrium Equilibrium requires that PV H = PV C I h /r = I c /[r(1+r) 4 ]

16. Equilibrium Equilibrium requires that PV H = PV C I h /r = I c /[r(1+r) 4 ] I h = I c /[(1+r) 4 ]

17. Equilibrium Equilibrium requires that PV H = PV C I h /r = I c /[r(1+r) 4 ] I h = I c /[(1+r) 4 ]

18. The Crucial Ratio

19. Implications of the Model The wage differential is required to justify the investment. The differential changes with real interest rates.

20. Implications of the Model The wage differential is required to justify the investment. The differential changes with real interest rates. The highest return from going to college is earned by going when you are young.

21. Implications of the Model The wage differential is required to justify the investment. The differential changes with real interest rates. The highest return from going to college is earned by going when you are young. Well, sometimes. MBA programs like experience.

22. End ©2003 Charles W. Upton