1. Integrating Social Perspectives in DROUGHT MONITORING Dr Anshu Bharadwaj Gujarat Institute of Disaster Management Gujarat State Disaster Management Authority Government of Gujarat

2. Features of Droughts

3. DROUGHT An insidious, slow onset hazard of nature Originates from deficiency of precipitation resulting in water shortages for human, cattle and agricultural consumption 16 % of country’s total area is drought prone 68% of total sown area can be drought affected 50 million people are expected to be annually affected.

4. DROUGHT - TYPES Meteorological Drought - reduction in rainfall for a specified period Hydrological Drought - depletion of water resources, stream flows, ground water, underground aquifers, etc. Agricultural Drought - impact of meteorological and / or hydrological droughts on crop yields. Famine Drought - extreme form of agricultural drought, which destroys food security to maintain as active healthy life.

5. Causes of Drought Deficiency of Rain water. Dependency on rain-fed agriculture. Human Causes:  Over exploitation of ground water resource  Land use leading desertification  Deforestation  Over-cultivation  Overgrazing  Mismanaged irrigation

6. Prediction of Drought Meteorology Remote Sensing & Vegetative development Agricultural conditions Crop marketing trends Fodder Availability – quantum, prices Health and nutritional status Petty crime status in rural areas Migration - Human and Cattle Mortality Statistics

7. IMPACT OF DROUGHT Actual impact and vulnerability may be quite different depending on the soils, irrigation, infrastructure, crop types and socio-economic factors like backwardness of the people, poverty, size of land holdings, rural industries of the area and access to other inputs. EconomicEnvironmentSocial

8. Social Impacts

9. Malnutrition Health Problems Reduced quality of life Social Unrest Increase in petty crimes Rise in Indebtedness What are Social Impacts?

10. Rise in price of food, fodder and water Conflict between water users Conflict between cattle owners and farmers Loss of life – particularly acute impact if the loss is of earning members Migration in search of livelihood and fodder for cattle and other animals

11. Drought Vulnerability of Gujarat

12. Drought - Spread in Gujarat Average Rainfall of Gujarat is 700 mm which varies from 200 mm to 2000 mm in the state. Due to agro-climatic diversity, there are extreme climatic conditions in Gujarat. Once in every 3 year, there is drought in Gujarat. The drought was declared in the years 1985, 1986, 1987, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003. In Gujarat, many parts are affected by Hydrological Drought.

13. While the central and south regions of state impacted with floods, the districts of north Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch experience drought. Kutch, Banaskantha, Rajkot, Jamnagar and Surendranagar are more vulnerable in terms of frequency and severity. Other affected areas are the northern Gujarat region and parts of Ahmedabad, Kheda, Panchmahal, Dahod, Vadodara, Narmada & Bharuch districts

15. Institutional Arrangements and Monitoring of Weather and Crops in Gujarat

16. Drought Management System in Gujarat State Revenue Department has overall responsibility State level  State Relief Committee - under chairmanship of Chief Minister  Cabinet Sub-committee - under chairmanship of Revenue Minister  State Crop Weather Watch Group – under State Relief Commissioner

17. District and Taluka Levels  District Relief Committee under Chairmanship of Minister in-charge of the district.  Collector in Charge at District Level  Taluka Relief Committee under Chairmanship of Class-I Officer-in-charge of taluka. State Relief Commissioner formulates proposals & operates budget, maintains accounts, monitors implementation & reports to State Relief Committee.

18. Close monitoring of emerging drought situation The possibility of drought is monitored from the onset of the Monsoon till withdrawal of south-west monsoon by the State Crop Weather Group Constant monitoring of rainfall and hydrological data gives preliminary information through State Crop Weather Watch Group Crop Weather Watch Group also works for detection of Early Warning Signs other than rainfall statistics to identify a potential drought.

19. Inputs to the State Crop Weather Watch Group Members of Group  Revenue Deptt  Irrigation Deptt  CWC  Agriculture Deptt  IMD  Bhaskaracharya Institute of Space Applications and Geo- informatics (BISAG)  ISRO, Ahmedabad Group meets every Tuesday to review  Surface water levels, status of reservoirs, flow of rivers, streams and groundwater levels measured at different centres in the state – Irrigation Deptt, CWC  Monitor sowing operations, condition and growth of crops – Agriculture Deptt.  Progress of Rainfall and forecast – IMD, BISAG, ISRO

20. Social Monitoring of Drought Objectives Zero Starvation Death Ensure availability of food, fodder & water Ensure health of humans and animals To restrict unrest and strife in rural areas. Need to Develop Triggers for Action Social and Economical Distress Indicators

21. Distress Indicators Indicators to be monitor  Withdrawal of savings from banks  Marketing trends  Availability of essential commodities  Indebtedness  Rise in number of charity holders  Health Sufferings  Migration  Increase in petty crime Distress should be monitored from the sowing period.

22. To monitor drought onset and its effects, District Collectors report to State Govt as per State Relief Manual: Nature of principal crops and their relative extent. Estimated anna valuation of crop condition in current year and actuals of preceding two years. The nature and conditions of the population Extent of grain and fodder supply with their normal and prevailing prices. The state of trade and the progress of exports and imports of food grain and fodder in possible affected areas

23. The trend of current agriculture and non- agriculture wages as compared to normal times. Mortality statistics Unusual movement of labour in search of employment. The state of crime with special reference to petty grain thefts. Any other facts which indicates signs of distress such as malnutrition among children

24. On approval of report by State Govt, Collector initiates Critical socio-economic assessment Detection signs of distress in early stages and steps to be taken Commence Test Relief Works for 6 weeks in a cluster of villages in declared drought affected areas to timely monitor extent of drought condition Regular Relief Works, Cattle relief works, cash assistance and other measures

25. Possible Interventions Listing of Interventions/Programmes to be planned in advance: Health and Nutrition  Supply of free drinking water  Free kitchens  Special Nutrition Programmes on ICDS pattern  Regular Health Check ups Relief Employment and Cash Support  Gratuitous relief for the aged and the infirm  Employment generation

26. Cattle Relief  Cattle Camps  Support to cattle maintenance institutions (gaushalas)  Fodder Depots Power for irrigation Insurance of crop and cattle, etc.

27. Need for Action Timely detection should be initiated through both economic and non-economic indicators Interventions to be initiated for preservation of quality of life – economic, social, health etc. Trigger mechanism should be supported by EWS based on Agro-hydro stress indicators & monitoring through satellite imagery Need for Close vigilance of situation by administration of distress – particularly of starvation and morbidity conditions

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