1. Facilitating Multi Stakeholder Processes and Social Learning - 2010 Herman Brouwer/ Karèn Verhoosel Centre for Development Innovation Theory of Change and Complexity Visit://portals.wi.wur.nl/msp//portals.wi.wur.nl/msp

2. Still analyzing and planning …. Collaborative Action Adaptive Planning Initiating Reflective Monitoring

3. This session Intro to a model of complexity Intro theories of change – what is it and how do you develop them? Practice the use of complexity model and theory of change on our own cases

4. Taking a Complexity Perspective Friends and Enemies

5. Control or Emergence

6. What change really means for a sugar cane farmer Source: Ashish Shah, Kenya green – local pink - national blue – international the farmer

7. The Cynefin Framework Complicated Complex Chaotic Simple Disorder Undordered Ordered Source: Cognitive Edge (www.cognitive-edge.com)www.cognitive

8. The Framework Model Source: Cognitive Edge (www.cognitive-edge.com)www.cognitive ComplicatedComplex Chaotic Simple Disorder Cause and Effect: repeatable, perceivable, and predictable Cause and Effect: not detectable Cause and Effect: understandable in retrospect but not predictable Cause and Effect: detectable but separated over time and space Sense – Categorise - Respond Probe – sense - Respond Act – Sense - Respond Sense – Analyse - Respond Unordered Contexts Ordered Contexts

9. The Framework Model ComplicatedComplex ChaoticSimple Source: Cognitive Edge (www.cognitive-edge.com)www.cognitive Disorder Constructing village water supply Vaccination programme Training about legal rights Birth registration Managing a tourist resort Delivering quality forestry services Designing effective M&E system Linking small-scale producers to markets Introducing air traffic control system Agricultural development in face of uncertainty Land tenure reform Institutional change for sustainable tourism Changing tax-incentives to favor small-scale producers Peace building in a failed state Initial response to disasters

10. The Framework Model ComplicatedComplex ChaoticSimple Source: Cognitive Edge (www.cognitive-edge.com)www.cognitive Disorder Logical framework Outcome mapping Logical framework Safe Fail Experiments Principle based Just act with instinct Adaptive management

11. Adaptive and linear approaches need to be integrated and different intervention strategies are needed

12. Adaptive Change Processes Linear Change Processes Context of Change Continuum Based on clear and perceivable cause and effect relationships Logical step by step result focused Clearly and fully specified at start Simple predetermined measureable indicators Recognises complexity and uncertainty of interactions Iterative, principle based, relationship oriented, experimental Indicative and iterative, based on feedback and learning relationships Learning and process oriented, explains expected and unexpected results Theory of Change Examining assumptions and theories about how change occurs Intervention Logic Deciding on strategies that will be followed to influence/create change Action Planning Organising and executing intervention strategies Monitoring and evaluation Assessing, judging and explaining the results of interventions Paradigms of Development Recognising overall worldview, values and perspectives on development The world is largely knowable, predictable and change can be controlled The world evolves in unpredictable ways that can be only partly influenced Unordered Aspects (Complex and Chaotic) Ordered Aspects (Simple and Complicated)

13. Theory of Change What is a Theory of Change? Theory of Change or Theories of Change?

14. Where do things go wrong? Limited or incorrect causal understanding Misjudging the motivations, incentives or capacities for people to act or change in particular ways Insufficient time or resources to achieve objectives Too limited influence over causal factors Breakdowns in human/organisational relations External factors that change causal relations and motivations Lack of adaptive capacity to respond to change

15. Bring greater rigour to programme design Lead to more appropriate choice in approach based on context and objectives Open up broader range of options for change strategies Help resolve conflicts about choice in strategies based on unarticulated assumptions Better informed, coherent and more transparent decision making Articulating a Theory of Change can:

16. A Theory of Change can be helpful for: An improved understanding of the complexity of the situation Recognition of unknowns and uncertainties Surfacing different assumptions and beliefs that may cause conflict or upset relationships An improved understanding of differences in paradigms, interests, assumptions about change between the different actors that need to cooperate An improved execution (planning, management and learning) of the interventions

17. Pathway of Change Goal Long- term Outcome Preconditions Intervention Progress markers Assumption Progress markers

18. Implications Different underlying assumptions lead to very different strategies for bringing about change Assumptions are often taken for granted and not made explicit The rational and linear model of western scientific inspired reasoning is at odds with the ‘realities’ of complex adaptive systems AND thinking and not OR thinking Surfacing and questioning assumptions is key to adaptive learning Logframes and complex adaptive systems don’t mix

19. Methods and Tools Cause and effect mapping (where possible) Scenario analysis Outcome mapping ‘Theory of Change’ ‘So-that’ chains Facilitated dialogue and questioning Ritual dissent

20. Case Work  Complexity: explore what type of problem we deal with in the MSP (simple, complicated, complex, chaos). What does this imply?  Develop a brief Theory of Change for the case: Goal (long term development) Preconditions (outcomes/objectives, results) Underlying Assumptions Indicate where stakeholders are already involved Explore where/how your organisation can intervene Build on your Rich Picture, Institutional analysis and Drivers, Trends and Scenarios analysis. They are part of your Theory of Change!

21. Thank you! © Wageningen UR